Iranian 'tollgates' cash in on Iraqi oil smuggling
By Scott Peterson
The Christian Science Monitor
July 20, 2000
TEHRAN, IRAN -- Iran's flip-flopping "policy" toward Iraqi
oil smuggling - in violation of United Nations sanctions - is proving enigmatic
even in diplomatic circles.
American officials say that after two months of strictly enforcing the
UN embargo, Iran's Revolutionary Guards are now allowing, for pay, scores
of sanction-busters to use Iranian waters to evade American and other craft
monitoring the area.
"Nobody really knows who is in charge," says Mohammad Hadi
Semati, a political scientist at the University of Tehran. "Like everything
else in Iran, it is cat and mouse. It may have nothing to do with strategic
gamesmanship, but a lot to do with [local] political games. It is part
of the bizarre chaos of Iran's political process."
The UN is permitting Iraq to sell about $17 billion in oil this year
and use the proceeds to buy humanitarian goods, including food and medicine.
The illegal trade - which also uses northern land routes to US-ally
Turkey - is considered by Western diplomats to be Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein's
personal cash stream that could net him up to $1 billion this year, and
pay for everything from luxuries for loyal cronies to rebuilding weapons
of mass destruction.
US policymakers heralded Iran's April crackdown on oil smugglers. At
the time, it was seen as a carefully calibrated response to a March gesture
by US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright easing restrictions on Iranian
carpets, caviar, and pistachios.
The clampdown also occurred shortly after the US State Department leaked
details of how Iraq was spending millions from these oil earnings on building
a new military base east of Baghdad for thousands of heavily armed opponents
of the Iranian regime, the Mujahideen e-Khalq.
Iran has many good reasons for stopping the flow, analysts say, though
some hard-line elements like the Revolutionary Guard corps also have very
good reasons for keeping it going.
But, as with most other political issues in the Islamic Republic, the
power struggle between the popular, reformist President Mohamad Khatami
and right-wing clerics is most likely in play.
Analysts point out that Mr. Khatami ordered a halt to the oil smuggling
soon after assuming office in 1997, but hard-liners, who control the Guards
corps, rekindled it shortly thereafter.
Diplomatic sources say that the Iraqis are selling oil at $15 to $16
per barrel, of which $5 to $6 per barrel is paid to cooperating Iranian
forces.
Khatami has made clear that he wants to clean up Iran's reputation for
terrorism and abide by international law. Early on, he also sent powerful
signals that Iran wanted to break down the "wall of mistrust"
that stood between Tehran and Washington.
"Certain people are afraid of Iran opening to the US, because it
could undermine their power," says a senior Western diplomat in Tehran.
"So this could be part of the internal quarrel. Khatami doesn't need
the American opening now for popular support."
And there may be less-direct reasons at play, such as Iranian anger
over the strident US policy of shutting Iran completely out of a future
Caspian oil pipeline. Washington has vowed to fund a vastly expensive line,
which few in the petroleum industry say is economically feasible, to skirt
Iran.
"This could be a move by Iran to tell the Americans: 'We can do
it, to counter what you are doing in the Caspian,' just to show that they
can mess up the US strategy in the Gulf," says Mr. Semati.
Among other issues, the US policy toward Saddam Hussein has its share
of critics.
"There is a real constituency in Iran that believes the US does
not want to get rid of Saddam Hussein, and that the US wants him to have
this income," Semati says. "If the Americans know about it, why
don't they stop it?"
Even though Iran and Iraq waged the bloodiest Mideast war in the 1980s
- killing and wounding more than 1 million people - some calculate that
earning a profit with an old foe makes more sense than complying with the
UN Security Council.
"The US has wanted to push the Security Council to condemn Iran,"
says a senior Western diplomat in Tehran, noting the inconsistency. "We
don't contest Iranian complicity, but other countries like the UAE [United
Arab Emirates] play a fruitful part. Don't choose just one [to condemn]
- that is more part of the US game on Iran."
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