Want to undermine the mullahs? Lift sanctions

COMMENTARY

By John Rossant
Business Week International Editions
European Cover Story
12/08/97

Until now, Washington has used the blunt instrument of unilateral sanctions to deal with the tough-talking mullahs who run Iran. The assumption is that by depriving Iran of access to U.S. technology and capital and by sanctioning foreign companies who deal with Tehran, Uncle Sam can make the regime's hotheads think twice, say, about buying long-range missiles from North Korea.

But there's a better way to deal a body blow to Iran's tired revolutionaries. Instead of tightening sanctions, Washington should consider removing them.

The strategy would damage the religious conservatives who hold most of the power in Tehran, while giving a boost to Iranians advocating closer ties to the West. From Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on down, nearly all rely on America-bashing to prove their revolutionary purity. ``They use it to hide their incompetence,'' says one Iranian businessman. ``Take it away, and they have nothing.''

RADICAL BOIL

The regime's moderate opponents couldn't agree more: U.S. sanctions keep Iran on a radical boil, they say, instead of tempering it. Ibrahim Yazdi, a former foreign minister who now heads the Freedom Movement of Iran, a barely tolerated liberal opposition group in Tehran, argues that Washington's policy won't topple the regime or persuade it to ease up on its policies. Instead, proposals such as that of House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) to authorize $20 million to destabilize Iran mainly undercut moderates such as Yazdi. Now, ``whoever raises a voice about oppression here is open to the charge they are on the payroll of the CIA,'' he says.

It's wrong to put Iran, a nation of more than 60 million people in political ferment, in the same ``rogue nation'' class as a Libya or an Iraq. Those tortured nations are run by madmen. Instead, America's relations with Iran should be modeled after its policy toward China. Trade should be allowed, in the interest of promoting economic and political liberalization. More trade could also boost Iran's middle class, which has lost out since the revolution.

U.S. sanctions don't pass muster on economic and geopolitical grounds, either. Put simply, they are bad for U.S. business and worse for the long-term American position in the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea--two of the world's most strategic locations. As Conoco CEO Archie W. Dunham told Energy Secretary Federico F. Pena recently, Iran is not going to wait until the U.S. changes its policies before developing its enormous oil and gas resources. Dunham ought to know: Conoco's $1 billion deal to exploit a big offshore oil field was killed by President Bill Clinton in 1995. Now, France's Total is pumping 120,000 barrels a day from the fields.

Anti-American slogans still bedeck Tehran, but the days when Iran was trying to export its revolution are long gone. Iranian officials admit that the U.S. was once targeted by bombers directed from Tehran. But the officials argue that Iran was not involved in more recent attacks, such as the June, 1996, explosion that killed 19 U.S. airmen in Saudi Arabia. And the Iranians flooding into largely Muslim Central Asian republics of the former Soviet Union are pursuing trade, they say, not propagating ideology.

SWORN ENEMIES

Building bridges between Iran and the U.S. won't be easy. Ever since students stormed the U.S. Embassy in Tehran in 1979 and seized 52 hostages, Iran has held a special place in the American psyche. Similarly, having reinstalled the Shah of Iran in a CIA-engineered coup in 1953 and then propped him up, Washington is seen as an implacable foe of Iranian independence.

There have been small signs that something is stirring in Washington. Leading members of the U.S. foreign policy Establishment--Zbigniew Brzezinski, Richard Murphy, and Brent Scowcroft--argued last April that the U.S. anti-Iran policy was counterproductive. Following President Khatami's landslide victory a month after that, Washington sent quiet messages to him through Saudi envoys. And in August, the State Dept. put Tehran's fiercest opposition--the MKO--on its terrorist watch list.

But those nudges and winks aren't enough. ``This whole story between the U.S. and Iran has to end. The Americans have to realize that their policies are simplistic and counterproductive,'' says one Western ambassador in Tehran.

``And the day there's a change in behavior, there'll be a McDonald's on every street corner in Tehran.'' That probably won't happen anytime soon. Even the most pro-American Iranians say that the U.S.-Iranian relationship can only be restored to health slowly. But the moment to start changing old habits has arrived.

Related links

* Iran News
* Complete list of Iranian online media