Let’s give credit where credit is due. The 31st anniversary of the 1979 revolution was a big success for the supporters of the Islamic Republic. The regime, as many had predicted — and hoped — did not come down crashing. Azadi Sq. and Enghelagh Ave. were packed with people loyal to Khamenei and Ahmadinejad and protests were sporadic and much less eventful compared to the spectacular defiance displayed on Ashura a few weeks prior. So in the coming days expect Khamenei and his lieutenants to gloat about how the people have once again demonstrated their full faith in the Islamic Republic, despite months of tension and turmoil.
Now let’s take a look at how the regime was able to pull off this great birthday bash. After suffering a shocking beating by the Green Movement on Ashura, the security chiefs suddenly woke up. They realized the situation was much more serious than what they had imagined. They were determined to avoid a similar embarrassment on the biggest day on the Islamic Republic’s calendar. The anniversary of the revolution should be a show of unity. It should send a message that Velayate Faghih is alive and thriving, despite efforts by the opposition and foreign media to show otherwise.
First, numerous officials and religious leaders called for blood. They demanded that protesters and political activists be treated as enemies of God and put to death. That would send a chilling message that the regime would not hesitate to kill its critics even for non-violent protest. And two weeks before 22 Bahman, Rahmanipour and Alizamani were executed and another dozen or so received the death sentence, and await final decision. Meanwhile more moderate newspapers were shut down, several more activists and potential trouble makers were arrested, and massive efforts were made to encourage hardcore religious followers to show their loyalty with their presence on 22 Bahman.
But the biggest preparation was on the security front. Thousands of riot police were deployed in a massive show of force (don’t say martial law). This time they would not make the mistake of moving in small units, which made them vulnerable to attacks by rock-throwing protesters, but instead in intimidating groups of hundreds.
And finally, phone text messaging was curtailed, nearly all internet lines were cut and virtually every means of communication with the outside world was blocked. As a result organized protest became almost impossible and images of defiant resistance, which have energized the opposition and generated sympathy in the outside world, dropped to a trickle.
You have to hand it to the Islamic Republic. Must say job well done! Brute force did the trick. 22 Baatoon was a surprising hit.
There’s only one problem. The party’s already over. The masses are as disillusioned as ever. Hatred of the religious establishment is at an all-time high and rising. If there were fewer protesters on the streets Thursday, they have not magically disappeared. None of them have been won over by the regime, rather they have only temporarily retreated because of a combination of fear and lack of organization and leadership. Schools and universities are still filled with students who wish nothing but freedom and an end to religious rule. Mousavi, Khatami and Karroubi have not yet bowed to the Supreme Leader. That coward Rafsanjani pays lip service to Khamenei but friend and foe know very well he can’t wait for Agha to drop dead. And let’s not forget the nuclear crisis and looming sanctions. The Islamic Republic has never been so unpopular at home and abroad.
It’s a brand new day. Charshanbeh Soori is around the corner. Got to figure out how to contain the bonfires all around and at the foot of Velayate Faghih. Get back to to work boys. No rest for the wicked.
