For the past few months, a plan has been going around in the Presidential Office in Kabul, as well as the corridors of certain Western foreign ministries. Some Western countries have reached this conclusion that they must sit at the negotiating table with Taliban in Afghanistan, and reintegrate some of the more moderate forces of this group into the current Afghani government’s political structure. The officials of these western nations have even succeeded in convincing Afghanistan’s President, Hamed Karzai, to consider this plan.
Britain is possibly at the forefront of designing and promoting this plan. This matter is no doubt as a result of the predominant presence of British forces, operating under International Security Forces-Afghanistan (ISF), in southern Afghanistan, where Taliban activities and influence is stronger, and where these two forces have had occasional cordial contacts. Even though it’s possible that the agenda of these talks may have been specifically about local issues, yet, the sheer fact of this move, represents a fundamental change in the approach of the British and western political and military officials with respect to Taliban.
Currently, Taliban has revived part of its forces, and right now controls several southern provinces in Afghanistan, and has considerable influence in a number of other adjacent provinces. Without a doubt, this group still receives public support in parts of the Afghan society, especially among the Pashtun population in the south.
Obviously there are several reasons for this support, mainly: 1) tribal/religious affinity, and 2) the central Afghani government’s inability in providing welfare in these regions. Through sustaining and increasing its anti-American/anti-western propaganda, Taliban has been able to preserve some of its relative support among the Sunni Pashtun tribes in the south. Mixture of this matter, with the Afghan government and the multinational forces’ inability to develop effective welfare and economic programs in the south of the country, has led to the regenerated tendency for Afghans to become receptive towards Taliban again.
Furthermore, the surfacing of socio-political problems in neighboring Pakistan, has resulted in the risen concern and panicking of the West, because the officials of these states know all too well that if Pakistan is sucked into the whirlpool of political crisis, radical and militant Islamist groups will use this situation in order not only to have an effect on the politico-military stage in Pakistan, but also to impose their increasing influence in Afghanistan. Hence, the manipulation and utilization of popular support by Taliban in southern Afghani provinces, as well as political crisis in Afghanistan’s immediate neighborhood, will allow Taliban and al-Qaeda to easily overrun southern Afghanistan from their safe-havens in the relatively lawless border regions of Pakistan.
Also, it must be taken into consideration that from a socio-political perspective, it is not possible to ignore and turn a blind eye to Taliban’s existence and influence in Afghanistan. Iraq is a very good case and point example for this matter, where the United States, along with the current Iraqi government, have reached this conclusion that in order to create further stability in this country, they must reintegrate some of the ex-Ba’athist members into the local and central government.
Such an approach must also be turned into a comprehensive policy in Afghanistan. To facilitate their participation in the affairs of the country, the central government, with the help of the multinational forces, must identify the more moderate members inside the Taliban, in order to reintegrate them into the political structure. First of all, this approach can reduce and possibly eliminate the militancy of these forces. And secondly, with this policy, the Afghan government and the international community could also create a wedge between these moderate Taliban forces and the al-Qaeda terrorist network.
Any group which has been removed from power by force, will use everything in its power to get inside the circle of power again. Therefore, it is better to create a suitable ground in order to let the deposed group to acquire access in a nonviolent and mapped-out manner. Because, by only ignoring and fighting these groups, one can not overlook their existence, and they will not simply disappear by themselves.
