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An Interesting Analysis Tries to Make Sense of Regime Strategy

Balatarin

Overall I think it does a good job of explaining regime moves that would otherwise make no sense and describing the regime's probable assumptions.  Obviously Russian and Iran played a role in devising the strategy based.  The deliberate targeting of civilians borrows directly from Putin's Chechnya Strategy. That makes Assad's allies are legitimate targets for Sunni revenge.     

 

Here's a link to the article describing the regime's strategic assumptions, followed by my own questions regarding those assumptons:

 

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/the-syrian-regimes-military-solution-to-the-war

 

 

SHAKY ASSUMPTIONS?


#1. Assad Putin and Khamenei are no doubt right to assume te hat Obama will allow them to kill as many Sunni civilivans "as it takes."  But Sunni neighbors won't.  They can create serious  problems in Syria and elsewhere—including neighboring states especially if they supply manpads. 

 

#2: No attention is paid to economic factors.  I doubt the The ultimate goal (“reducing resistence to a managable level) is possible.  And so long as mass violence continues a near banenkrupt Syrian state will remain under sanctions, isolated from the world economy, derived of toursim, suffering from mass unemployment an incapable of affording reconstruction.   How long can the regime survive such conditions?

 

#3:  One assumption is not covered by the study: that the regime would continue to benefit from its covert alliance with ISIS/Al Queda and thereby disrupt and discredit the rebels.  If rebels can crush ISIS quickly (which is why the regime is now openly fighting on Al Queda's side) the rebels will reap huge benefits. 

 

#4: No allowance is made for the unreliability of a substantial portion of troops and growing morale problems among all  troops, including imoported thugs.  Troops are starting to balk at being sent to “hot” fronts.  Alawites make up only 11 percent of Syrian’s population and in the military age group it is far smaller and they compose most reliable troops. 

 

#5: The assumption that the regime can maintain, supply and protect inceasingly “islandized” holdouts and isolated airbases with so little reliable manpower seems especially overoptimistic.  Fragmentation will continue and smaller fragments will become more vulnerable. 

 

#6. The assumption that the rebels won’t unify has alraedy suffered a blow as they gang up on ISIS.   See the next item which also undermines that assumption.

 

Report: REBELS MOVE TOWARD CREATING A NEW NATIONAL ARMY

 

http://www.aawsat.net/2014/01/article55327031

 

A NEW ISIS POSTER SHOWS FLAGS OF ITS FIVE ENEMIES.  THE ASSAD REGIME IS NOT ON THAT LIST

 

The enemy flags include the USA, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Ahrar Al Sham and the Islamic Front.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Gvnlu0p.jpg

Balatarin

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FG3049

BRITISH MPS DEMAND MILITARY ASSISTANCE TO FSA IN FIGHTING AL QUEDA

British MPs across political spectrum have written an open letter to The Times of London insisting the FSA must be given funds and arms to to take on ISIS.

It makes far more sense to support the FSA against Al Queda than to rely on a genocidal headed by the Syrian Hitler to do so. Assad isn’t fighting terrorists. He is allied with them. ISIS/Al Queda is and always has been a covert partner of the regime and its Russian and Iranian allies since Day One. Observe how pro-democracy rebels have always been the #1 target of both ISIS and the Assad regime. Observe how Assad and his airforce avoids attacks on known Isis HQs and assist ISIS offensives.

AN INSPIRING VIDEO ABOUT PEOPLE POWER & THE DOWNFALL OF A DEEPLY HATED & GENOCIDAL REGIME

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Brown Moses writes on SYRIA’S SAHWA: A BATTLE OF CONFUSION

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BARZEH: BADLY BEATEN REGIME FORCES IN RETREAT

Don’t be confused by every claim of regime victory. They do that even when they lose. Anyone who saw the terms of a recent cease fire there knows the regime would never agree to such a one-sided deal if they had the upper hand. The regime retreat was toward Tishreen Hospital and they took 40 of their dead with them according to Johnny Six.

PHOTOS OF NON-HIZBOLLAH SHIA FIGHTERS WHO CAME TO SYRIA TO LAUNCH GENOCIDE AGAINST SUNNIS

http://elaph.mobi/news/866489/


THE GUARDIAN: Al-Qaida's brutal effort to build a caliphate prompts growing fury

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/11/al-qaida-repeats-mistakes-falluja-tragedy?CMP=twt_gu


UNCLEAR REPORTS REGARDING ISIS HQ AT JARABLUS NEAR ALEPPO

One twitter reports the ISIS HQ has fallen. Another says the Islamic Front has given ISIS a deadline to hand over all weapons. Either way rebels appear to have the upper hand in this former ISIS stronghold.

A HORRIFIC ACCOUNT OF LIFE IN ISIS’ JAILS

Syria activists freed from ISIS dungeons breathe new life

https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/nowsyrialatestnews/529882-syria-activists-freed-from-isis-dungeons-breathe-new-life


Recommended from Enduring America today:

#1: FROM SYRIA TO IRAQ: EXPLAINING THE DIFFERENT APPROACHES OF THE OMABA ADMINISTRATION.

In both cases repressive governments favoring Shia dominance produced uprisings that opened the door for Al Queda amongst populations which otherwise would have easily stomped ISIS.

http://eaworldview.com/2014/01/from-syria-to-iraq-explaining-the-different-approaches-of-the-obama-administration/

#2: EA’s DAILY SYRIA ROUNDUP

http://eaworldview.com/2014/01/syria-daily-fog-war-insurgents-islamic-state-iraq/


#3: REPORT ON AN AMBUSH/ MASSACRE IN HOMS


About the fate of 65 brave men who were ambushed, possibly after betrayal, when they tried to break the siege of Homs where the Alawite regime has been starving Sunni civilians for two years now. Some of the dead were killed in battle, the rest were “field executed.”

http://eaworldview.com/2014/01/syria-the-65-men-who-died-trying-to-break-the-siege-of-homs/