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Could they trick Obama on Iran?

Hassan Dai

A group of Iran experts, former officials and lobbyists who deceived Obama 4 years ago have launched a new campaign. They are telling that the Iranian Mullahs are ready for compromise and US should accept their red lines, lift the sanctions and secure regime's future

 

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On December 16, three former US officials asked the Congress to stop "messing up sanctions against Iran" and declared that: "the time is ripe for a deal (with Iran) and wrong for more sanctions."

 

Similarly, an army of Iran experts, lobbyists and former officials campaign hard to convince the Obama administration that the Iranian regime is willing to compromise and this is a "unique", "unprecedented" and probably "unrepeatable" opportunity for US to cut a deal with Tehran.

 

Gary Sick, a veteran of rapprochement with Iran advised Obama and wrote: "The history of U.S.-Iran relations is a story of relentless hostility and serial missed opportunities. Chances for genuine progress come along scarcely once in a decade. So, Mr. President, here is one more piece of free advice: The present constellation of circumstances with Iran is probably the best you're going to get. Don't let it pass."

 

 

Reza Marashi a NIAC lobbyist declared that "Tehran looks ready to tango (with US)". NIAC is a Washington based advocacy group viewed by many Iranians as a lobby for the Iranian regime. Government press in Tehran call NIAC the "Iran lobby in Washington".

 

Joining the chorus, Laura Rozen wrote  in Al Monitor that "Ali Akbar Velayati, the longtime foreign policy advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is likely to run for Iran’s presidency next year, and if elected would take a more pragmatic stance to ease soaring tensions with the West that have isolated Iran and hurt its economy, a former Iranian diplomat told Al Monitor. The former diplomat expressed optimism that Iran would reach a negotiated solution with the West over its nuclear program by June of next year, when Iranian presidential elections are due to be held."

 

Banafsheh Keynoosh (Ahmadinejad's former translator and NIAC co-founder) wrote for Almonitor that: "Navigating the maze of Iranian politics is complicated, but a pattern seems to be clear.  Whatever the difference on tactics, Iran, including the hard-liners, who are in the ascendancy, are ready to deal with the United States."

 

There are  just a few samples of daily declarations by a group of "Iran experts" who promote friendship with Tehran. But strangely enough, for the past two decades and regardless of situation or who has been in power in Iran, these experts have constantly arrived at the same conclusion that a pragmatist, moderate, realist, or reformist faction in Iran is ready to compromise and resolve US concerns. And every time, they declared that the Iranian willingness is unique and unprecedented.

 

A revealing example of this troubling expertise could be found in  CFR's Ray Takeyh who recently wrote that "Iran's Conservatives Push for a Deal" with the US. For the past ten years, Takeyh has always arrived at the same conclusion:

 

2000, Khatami’s presidency and peak of the power of reformists: “We get a better deal on all issues of concern, the holy trinity – weapons, terrorism, and Israel – from the reformers, who are more pragmatists than the hard-liners.” (Takeyh, R., in Middle East Policy Council. December 12th, 2000)

2002: “This time, with public opinion in favor of reaching out to Washington, Iranian political groups of all complexion are loath to let the opportunity (of a deal) pass.”(Takeyh, R., in Financial Times. November 4, 2002.)

2004 ,Defeat of reformists and rise of Ahmadinejad: “The recent demise of the reform movement has facilitated the ascendance of pragmatic conservatives willing to have a far-reaching dialogue with the United States. At a time when the challenge of Iran seems most acute, the prospect of Tehran accommodating Washington has never been greater.”( Takeyh, R., in International Herald Tribune. August 24, 2004.)

 2004: “For the first time in more than 20 years, the United States has the opportunity to deal with rational, pragmatic interlocutors who, by virtue of their standing in the government, are in a position to negotiate. It is an opportunity that should not be squandered.”  (Takeyh, R., in Washington Quarterly. Autumn 2004.)

2005 , Ahmadinejd is elected as the president: “Despite the election of a hard-line government in Iran, the time surprisingly might be ripe for a deal.”  (Feinstein, L. and R. Takeyh, in The Baltimore Sun. September 26, 2005.)

2007: “In Iran today the idea of negotiating with the United States as late as 1999, 2001, was a contentious issue. Now there is a consensus in Iran, across political spectrum, blessed by the supreme leader, that Iran is willing to negotiate with the United States.” (Takeyh, R., in a speech. February 22, 2007.)

2008: "It is also clear that today’s Iranian leaders are capable of selective, constructive dialogue with the United States and that they have cross-factional support for direct, authoritative dialogue with their American adversaries—a condition that did not exist for most of the past thirty years." [Emphasis is mine] (Maloney and Takeyh, CFR and Brookings, "Pathway to Coexistence: A New U.S. Policy toward Iran")

 

It is interesting to see how under very different situations, and cast of characters in power in Iran, Takeyh managed to arrive at the same conclusion. But Takeyh is just a revealing example of those who have constantly mal-advised the US administration. Ironically, the influence, stature and prestige of these "experts" grew despite the enormity of their miscalculations.

 

At every turning point when the American policy makers arrived at an impasse with Iran and were ready to examine tougher policies, these experts gave advice and fresh hope that someone will emerge in the gloom of tyranny in Iran and would resolve US concerns.

 

The policy recommendations by these experts have also been very clear as it was explained by Takey and Vali Nasr: “the United States would do better to shelve its containment strategy and embark on a policy of unconditional dialogue and sanctions relief”.  Accordingly, Takeyh told in an interview with CFR that the "U.S. Can Only Stop Iranian Nuclear Program by Offering Broad Concessions."Trita Parsi president of NIAC recommended that the US should accept Iran's influence in the region and share the Middle East with the Mullahs.

 

As the Obama administration is reviewing its Iran policy, it is wise to remember that the first step to adopt a sane and sound policy is to dismiss the advice given by the above mentioned lobbyists and experts.  These are the same people who in 2009 advised Obama to ignore the Iranian popular uprising and instead, invest in futile negotiations with theocratic rulers.

Balatarin

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Mehrban

Mehrban

Dear Mr. Dai, in order to support the 2009 Iranian uprising what do you think Obama should have done that he did not do? @HassanDai6

masoudA

masoudA

How about the same thing he did in Egypt?

Mehrban

Mehrban

MasoudA please be specific. What do you think Obama should have done in Iran in 2009 and also going forward?

This comment was removed by the Iranian.com Staff for violating our Commenting Standards

MOOSIRvaPIAZ

MOOSIRvaPIAZ

Greatest trick the devil pulled is to trick people into thinking that you, Hassan Daei is on the side of Iranian people.

You have your own interests. Cozying up with pro-war anti-Iranian folks in washington tells us all we need to know about your character.

NIAC is imperfect, but atleast their policies align with Iranian people.

MOOSIRvaPIAZ

MOOSIRvaPIAZ

Thanks for making my point about pro-war pressure groups.

masoudA

masoudA

Dear Mr. Daei,
I agree with you on just about everything here - however, you are making it sound as if Obama is a decesion maker. Foreign policy related decesions have been planned and made for Obama long before he was elected. I said it in another thread - the entity ruling foreign policy decesions in America (during Democrat administrations) is CFR (Council on Foreign Relations) a private sister company to Chatham House in London created in 1921 in Washington. They are the entity which dictates Americans policies (by way of lobby) to help the British cause even at the cost of hurting America (ala the 1978 revolution in Iran, and what is happening in Egypt, etc.). So if you see some Americans waking up to what is going on by way of starting another TEA PARTY - you now know why!! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Council_on_Foreign_Relations

HassanDai6

HassanDai

You are right. The US policy is not decided by President alone. But I mean that these so-called experts (and lobbyists) try to manipulate US policy, and at the same time prevent US decision making system (on top of them Obama) to adopt a sane policy

MOOSIRvaPIAZ

MOOSIRvaPIAZ

Sane policy is to go to war with Iran. That's the MEK cultist representatives idea of a sane policy! Got it!

faraway

faraway

Fearmonger much?? There will be no war on Iran. NIAC needs to always drum up the war to stay relevant. NIAC without WAR become void and null. Don't you think people are intelligent enough to see through that? NIAC inadvertently, has become a instrument of WAR not PEACE. Accusing of everyone who does not support your NIAC's hysterical rants as neocons or MEK is frankly getting to be so boring and out of touch. You guys need to come up with new talking points to stay relevant. Why is this so hard to do for NIAC's leadership?? War has become NIAC's cash cow and it's no longer paying any dividends.

faraway

faraway

Regardless, mr daie, I don't think the butchers in Iran will ever negotiate with the US. They are not looking for short-term relief as some experts suggest. The long term survival of the regime is only guaranteed by continuing the enrichment. The barking of the lobbyists will not amount to anything.

tetrapharmakos

tetrapharmakos

بنده سگ کی‌ باشم که خواسته باشم کسی‌ رو سوال‌پیچ کنم........از ایشون تقاضا کردم که با بیان واقعیات، خود را از این مخمصه جوری رها کنند که احتیاجی به این نداشته باشند که توسط دوستان نجات پیدا کنند.......فقط همین......

tetrapharmakos

tetrapharmakos

With all due respect I repeat my request from our learned friend Mr. Dai to shed some light on widespread rumors of his association with MEK cult. We all know the anti-Iranian nature of the VF and whatever it stands for, but at the same time we feel entitled to know who our Savior is..........

HassanDai6

HassanDai

You are right, we are entitled to transparency. How about starting to use real names?
I hesitate to enter endless and futile discussion with MOIS cyber agents or NIAC "internet reaction team" members.

tetrapharmakos

tetrapharmakos

You don't have to discuss anything, Sir.........just disclose it....In a blog where comments are disabled......say it all......all the truth, and nothing but the truth.........that's all I'm saying........

HassanDai6

HassanDai

Read my previous article about the recent Federal report in which NIAC's relation with Iranian intelligent agents are discussed. You will find answer to your questions unless you are paid to repeat the same questions below every article.

faramarz

Faramarz

آقای دائی عزیز، اگر شما میخواهید که بدانید که این کسی که شما را سوال پیچ کرده کیه و از کجا آمده و دنبال چیه به صحبت های افراد هم مرامش مثل علی خدایی سردبیر نشریه راه توده توجه کنید

http://www.bbc.co.uk/persian/world/2012/01/120127_ptv_pargar_89.shtml

faraway

faraway

serious question: Toudeh and toudehis still get their marching orders from Russia?

faramarz

Faramarz

Tudeh and Tudeh-eis are like a swamp that should have been drained many years ago. But it is still there and if you walk near it, you will see the alligators and get the foul smell.
But the passage of time will solve this problem too. Most of these guys are in their 60's or older, and at the end they will be just a footnote in Iran's glorious history.

tetrapharmakos

tetrapharmakos

I must've been paid by all sides.......the NIAC fellow thinks I'm an AIPAC agent...............I must be a basiji

I'm sorry, but you seem to have become a bit nervous, Mr. Dai.............what is it that you're trying to run away from?.......write Mr. Dai........write...........the whole truth, and nothing but the truth..............thanks...

masoudA

masoudA

Tetra...
So what if he is an MEK member? How does it change the conversation? I think you are detering the subject....

sayyad.shaer

Sayyad Sha'er visit: www.sayyadshaer.com

Dyaoleslam (or whatever his name is, it's one of the most ridiculous names I've ever heard) must come clean on it. He's Matrix-style evading every question about his ties to the MKO. Iranians need to know who and why he is claiming what he is. It's all fine and dandy to use anti-regime rhetoric to win support of Iranians, I'm sure most Iranians dislike the regime and want better, but the MKO is out of the question and Iranians should not repeat their mistake of 1979 of supporting people just because they dislike their common enemy.

masoudA

masoudA

Don''t speak for all Iraniasn Sayyad. Do we need to know everything about YOU before allowing you to express an opinion here?

faraway

faraway

That is the million dollar question, dear MasoudA. Pretending to be young...lol

sayyad.shaer

Sayyad Sha'er visit: www.sayyadshaer.com

No, because what I say is merely the opinion of a young Iranian-American. What Dai says is supposedly "hot facts" straight from someone "who knows detailed facts about spies in the US" and claims he is working to bring regime change to Iran. Someone who claims that position needs to tell his potential supporters exactly where he stands, it's our right to know and his responsibility as a political activist.

sobh

sobh

I have made the following observations from Mr. Dai’s piece. He talks about sanctions on Iran as if those sanctions are affecting only the IRI regime leaders and their followers and not the ordinary people. The fact is that the sanctions are affecting negatively more regular every Iranians than the regime. But for Mr. Dai, this is not an important issue, it is not important that Iranian hospitals are now lacking basic medications (and you can argue as much as you want that it is IRI’s fault, but it will not change the miserable situation for ordinary people in Iran) and if you object his view (or him alike people such as Fred ...) then, you are a regime supporter. This is exactly the same tactic that Neo-Cons, NRA, right wing show hosts have used (and are still using) in US politics by name calling and labeling people in order to shut them down and intimidate the rational voices. The problem is the crimes of the IRI and the lack of a unified intelligent and rational political opposition to it, gives people such as H.D. and others a platform to say all kind of none-sense and still get away with it.

MOOSIRvaPIAZ

MOOSIRvaPIAZ

Ah, I see the MEK public speaker Hassan Daei has made an account on Iranian.com.

Say helo to your great leader Maryam joon.

Oh and say hello to your neocon buddies.