Power of paranoia

The Middle East events including those shaping the future of Iran are not as complicated as they may seem on the surface. We can obtain a clearer more cohesive picture by identifying the prime motivation that drives each player, beyond its facades and pretences.

WHAT ISRAEL WANTS: Israel's policy has been quite explicit and clear for a long time. Israel wants neighboring nations that are either backward and chaotic OR are ruled by regimes that are obedient to it. A backward obedient regime would be the most desirable.

WHAT THE US WANTS: Number one US foreign mode of operation is to help fulfill whatever Israel wishes. The US has other wishes, chief among them is geopolitical control of oil, but that is secondary to its primary motive.

WHAT OTHERS WANT: It is not as important. The US and Israel are the most powerful players so their wishes shape events more than others.

Obviously, it follows that the most important step to understand the events of the Middle East is to understand the motives of Israel. Certainly the motivation of others such as that of the Islamic Republic of Iran, itself, shapes the events and future of Iran but to first order and within the scope of this article it is paramount to understand Israel's.

Israel wants to have a dominant position in the Middle East. This is because it feels insecure and wishes to be in a controlling position. Insecure is not sufficiently descriptive. Israel is abnormally paranoid, in fact increasingly paranoid beyond sanity. They make plans for security, carry them out, then feel that it is still inadequate and get paranoid about the plan, then start over.

There are tangible reasons for feelings of insecurity but at the deepest level, the reason for such paranoia is religious. Iranians often only consider their own as illogically religious. Few Iranians pay attention to the fact that Israel has a powerful and large fanatical religious sector that largely shapes its policies. Most of other Israelis have a high sense of religious destiny.

Israelis in their heart of hearts feel that they are in a war with God, Himself. God just does not want Israelis to have it easy. Of course Israelis know deep down inside that they are unwilling to take the difficult path and actually obey God to please Him, be an example of morality and righteousness for the rest of the nations. So with much anxiety they look for an alternative: “maybe we can bargain with and outfox God.”

Israel's own prophecy is that God will kick out Israelis yet again at the hands of a neighboring nation. This is a prophecy that shall come to pass. Some zealous religious reformers are trying to recast their own prophecies, rewriting history; such revision is not finding a home in the hearts and minds of Israelis themselves, though, some witless Evangelical Christian may buy it.

Of course there are tangible issues for feelings of insecurity among Israelis. However, the fanatical religious backdrop turns prudent caution to immense and increasing paranoia that feeds on itself.  Albert Einstein said that early on each person has to make a fundamental decision that either the Universe is against him or is with him. Israelis have decided that the world, God Himself is against them. It is like a man who thinks that everyone wants to fight him so he is compelled by his paranoia to preempt with a first punch. Then when others punch back, he says, “see! Everyone does want to fight me. My paranoia was justified!”

Needless to say all Israelis do not act in this way. A more accurate description would be that of three friends who enter a bar together. One, who is paranoid, wishes to control the other two, and benefits most when in a fight, throws a preemptive punch against others in the bar. Inevitably the people in the bar pick a fight with all three. Now the other two have no other choice but to fight with the paranoid controlling one.

The paranoia of Israel has not been static. It has been growing with their increasing power. Armed to the teeth, Israelis are now more paranoid than they were when the balance of power was less skewed. After all, they are in a fight with God Himself, and God in the past stroke just as they reached heights of power and arrogance.

Israelis believe that the population (and not just a minority) of its neighboring nations and in fact more and more of the entire world want to harm them. Therefore they want to be in a controlling position.  If the populations of nations have not taken action against Israel it is not because they may have other more urgent items on their agenda or have goodwill but because they have been unable to. Of course Israel is entirely unwilling to take the difficult path of obedience to God and morality, trusting God and the good of the world, to engender goodwill towards Israel.  This requires trust. Paranoia is more comforting than goodwill and trust.

How does this help explain and predict events in the Middle East?

First, Israel has pursued two options with respect to its neighbors. The first option is to have regimes in charge that are obedient to it and can control the populations. The second option is to exploit and foster emerging situations to keep populations backward and busy with other problems.  Such situations as internal or external war, ethnic tensions, inept governments, religious fanaticism are exploited and fostered.

Second, with increasing power, Israel has increased its ferocity in pursuing these policies. It has increased the span of nations that fall under these policies. If initially such policies were applied only to its immediate neighbors it now is applied to the greater Middle East and increasingly the entire Muslim world and more. If obedience initially meant that the regime should pursue foreign policy that conformed to Israel's wishes it now means that the regime should also pursue domestic policies that meet Israel's demands. The rulers must show their total allegiance to Israel in more and more ways. Otherwise, in its paranoia, Israel might suspect that the ruler is secretly plotting against them.

Lastly, in deferent times and in different camps within Israel, one option or the other has been favored. The right, the Israeli arm of the Republicans, has preferred option one, obedient regimes. The left, the Israeli arm of the Democrats, has preferred option two, policies to support backward and chaotic populations.

With the Neocon coup there has been a strong shift towards option one, obedient regimes. The reason is that in their paranoid pre-emptive planning they have concluded that their power is now so much greater than others that the only threat to them and the only form of response to their dominance can be asymmetric warfare, what they termed terrorism. Of course, terrorism was essentially a non-existing threat. But just as the case of a man who in his own paranoia throws a preemptive first punch then when others punch back takes that as evidence of his justified paranoia, Israel's action (and that of its proxy the USA) have created a threat on a real scale from a non-factor.

Israelis wish to contain the threat of asymmetric warfare by moving nations away from option two to option one. They now wish for strong central governance that is accountable and obedient to them. Of course, where possible, they wish to destroy and set back the economic base of the country as much as possible before the change so that they have time to deal with the country should it become too strong but not sufficiently obedient. A weak backward nation that is obedient is best. We are in midst of a shift from option two, the favored choice starting from the Iranian revolution to Bush's Presidency, to option one.

This is the context and reality behind the Middle East and indeed world events that we are witnessing.  This is what happened in Iraq. This is what is happening with Lebanon. As for Iran, Israel and even more so, the US, strongly wishes for the regime to pull a Qadafi, become a more obedient regime.  It will then increasing demand more and more from it. This may not entirely satisfy Israel's paranoia and they prefer to achieve this goal after some major damage is done to Iranian economy and infrastructure. The damage the IRI has accomplished in the past 27 years may not be enough to meet Israel's paranoia.

Note that Israel cannot and does not get all its wishes. Others can and do influence the course of events. Secondly, Israel having “unkosher” motives does not sanctify the motives of its opposition.  Quite the contrary, nearly everyone else have “unkosher” motives of their own. The point however is that it is essential to identify the prime motivation that drives parties that concern you, beyond their façade and pretences.

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