But that also means voters have no problem envisioning disaster should we pull out our troops too soon – the possible slaughter of pro-American Iraqis, plus police and government officials; perhaps a takeover by Iran; a comeback by al Qaeda and other terrorist operatives.
“..perhaps a takeover by Iran” is a scenario, that the vote hungry Obama, has not really looked into. He had to say something to get the Jewish vote. That essentially put Clinton out of the race. And he hopes that it will help the Democrats to defeat the GOP come november.
As far as the Seyyeds are concerned, they just need to react to this subtle change in tone of Obama, and he is finished. They need to say, that he is just like McCain, and he would lose in november. But if the Seyyeds and their Iraqi, Lebanese, and Palestinian proxies, say nothing, then “their man” will become the next President of United States. This man is Jimmy Carter all over again. And the Seyyeds love JC.
Obama, right now, is a man driven by a Cause with a big C, which is far deeper than meets the eye, and is above and beyond his Country. I am of course referring to the famous Kissinger, “Cause and Country” principle. These ideals are exactly what got Khomeini into Iran when Carter was around. Carter was an idealist. This is not the practical Clinton camp that was privy to US national security issues. Obama the President will not be able to sit with all those people who have protected US, and more importantly were put in place by the Republicans.
This is what the Seyyeds want. The would love to see the most liberal side of Democratic Party get into office on idealistic grounds. In reality what would happen, is that the US would pull out of Iraq, and the area at large, Israel and Arabs would increase their arms, and the US would have more money to spend on all the Democrat’s social programs. That means that the Israelis will go it alone against the Seyyeds’ nukes. US forces will be trimmed down, and we will end up just like we were before 9/11.
Some would argue that the whole 9/11 was a set up; that the military in the US needed funding; that whole military industrial complex of United States, that is a core economic engine as well, needs to keep going. So will we get another major global crisis to tame even Obama, or will he, like clever Bill Clinton not fall into those traps. I hope it is the later, as he is not so sensitive to oil industry as Bush is. But reality is that the US military will get up to its tricks and create another new 9/11. Obama will then have to leave his Cause and think about his Country. It is then that you will see the real Lion in this man roar.
So are the Democrats a better alternative for secular progressive Iranians that want to put Iran first. Sadly no. What happens when you get the Democrats, is that many more people will leave Iran to work in US. The mass migration of Iranians caused huge financial and intellectual drain on the homeland after Carter let Khomeini into Iran. So many Iranians left Iran and took their wealth and intelligence to US. That damage is a lot worse than any damage the Seyyeds have done. Iran is then left with even less people to stay in Iran and develop it.
So what is the most ideal scenario. As a person who believes in non-violence, the path I would choose would be for the US government, whatever kind, to block all transactions from all the banks and companies that deal with the Seyyeds in the US with evoking section 311 of the Patriots Act, which NRO alludes to. The Seyyeds have taken over the machinery of state of Iran and believe that their dogma is non-negotiable. No carrot or stick will stop them from their agenda. Creating another new Iranian government in exile that has the support of unions in Iran, will be the first step for a non-violent General Strike to freeze Iran. Any talk of military strikes will bolster the Seyyeds.
So to sum up, it is not as if once the US changes its attitude, then the Seyyeds will change. They won’t. They are in their own mindset; and it drives them to have a “Mahdi” and do whatever it is they believe in, as and when. The US must not think that with their new “Political Brand”, suddenly the world will change. It won’t. Once the “Seyyed Cause” becomes a Country of their own outside Iran, then Iran will be freed, and become country again. US will need to balkanize Iraq, with a region or two for the Shiites, just like the Clintons did with Yugoslavia. A world of nation states is the most peacefull world, and the next President of United States will by hook or by crook realise that.