The situation couldn’t be better for Iran. Russia’s move to Georgia and Iran’s quiet policy has given a new turn of events in the exciting Middle Eastern region. One could argue that the regime of Iran is not smart but lucky. The luck vs. procedural policies seems to be ten to one. For the time being the regime of Iran could not be happier and many Iranian officials are probably correlating their luck to God’s will, for many others the issue is just ”Whatever works”.
Recently the gaps between the Russian government and its Western counterparts have grown deeper and this can be translated to opportunity for Iran. It’s now vital for the Russia to keep Iran on her side and while US is arming and assisting the Georgian State, Russia will help Iran to counter attack the American influence. If the arm and influential race begins, the clear long-term winner in the region will be Iran, and probably Russia. In the long run, Russia and China along with Iran need to join forces to control the most valuable commodity on earth, the black gold. This concept of the cooperation between the triangular regional powers seems natural unless there are other incentives to stop this process.
Clearly all countries work for their own interest, and Russia is no exception. I believe that the Russian politicians are thinking along the line of the regional positioning, and with Iran, any country would be stronger in every aspect of the political geography. I believe we would witness the Nuclear Plant coming to life and Russia could begin to talk to the Iranians without shame or secrecy that they might have had before. The west must know this and probably looking for a incentive package to stop Russian political path, which would cut the hands of many westerners from the riches of the Middle East.
Iran is also looking to benefit from the Russian disobedient attitude towards the West. the Iranian government will successfully add one more card to their already strong foreign political positioning and feel more secure. If they get Russia openly, they become secure and continue stronger on their plan to “look to the East”. The Russians would protect Iranian interest because it is their own interest. Russia knows that it’s a matter of time that Iran and the US become political partners, and that would mean the end of the Russia, as we know it. They would do anything to stop such move from Iran, and that means supporting Iranian system with its anti western attitude.
The regional outlook is beginning to look different and the political map is changing quickly. The only negative point would be a war, but for now that seems unlikely. On the positive side, the more stable Iran, politically and militarily, translates to faster social progresses and positive economical changes. At the moment many Iranian officials are sitting on the floor and thanking God for the unbelievable luck that they have had. Since the end of the war, every geopolitical scenario has been for the benefit of the Iranian government, one after another. One wonders if regionally the IR has gotten it right!!