A Rafsanjani-Khamenei “deal” & an interesting detail on new Basilj leader

Tehran Bureau has an interesting article regarding a rumored deal between Rafshanjani and the Supreme Leader. However see the comment from Scott Lucas (Enduring America) following the article.

I’ve seen nothing online previously about the new Basilj leader until now.  But a second response provides an interesting detail about him.  According to a subpost from Bendix “The new commander has reason to hate Ahmadinejad, who fired him from a prior position.” Now that is interesting especially when combined with recent stories about Larijani surving an attempt by Ahmadinejad to oust him as head of the Principalist group in Parliament. If the Supreme Leader had wanted Ahmadinejad to win that battle there’s no doubt how it would have have ended differently.

Downside: We’ve seen Khamenei oust hated tormentors before (special prosecutor & Janatti at Republican Guard) only to appoint them to a high position elsewhere instead of demolishing them.

DOING MY PART: On the theory that Khamenei has up to now isolated himself from reality and listened only to hardline advisors, reflected in disasterous idea that he could persuade most Iranians to rig the election and then end all complaints with brute force and get away with show trials, I’ve been sending a lot of critical feedback regarding the Supreme Leader to Khamenei’s site (via “Send a Letter).  

The stuff has stressed both news stories and some of my own analyses, posted online, regarding how all of these moves continue to backfire and accelerate the crisis. That refers not only to the above decisions but to coverups and the futility of censorship which not only undermines the regime’s credibility but makes it a laughingstock (“foreigners were behind everything” and “the demonstrators, including Neda” killed themselves to make the regime look bad.”)

MY “TIGER BY THE TAIL” ANALOGY: A great example of “backfire” is the continued detention of prisoners including those who made forced confessions in show trials.  As with the rigged election, the regime resembles a man who holds a tiger by the tail.  Whether he lets go or holds on, trouble is on the way. Continue holding the prisoners, and add to popular discontent.  Let them go and details of exactly how they were treated to force those confessions inevitably must come out and appear everywhere both inside and outside Iran.   

To cite one especially troublesome example: the Newsweek reporter (can’t continue to hold him forever but imagine the special potential consequences outside Iran of freeing him)   This is a regime which doesn’t look ahead and can’t see down the road as it continues egregious blunders.

Somebody’s got to make Khamenei see reality. He may know how to manipulate the system to increase his own power over everything but to imagine he can get away with doing the same to the public in the days of satellite TV, the internet, social networking, cell phones with video capacity, political graffiti, etc., is just plain crazy.

For the Tehran Bureau article see:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbure…

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