An Iranian Civil War? We Should Hope Not

That’s an eye-catching statement, but what reason would anyone have
for believing it? After a lot of background and stage-setting, Aslan
writes that clashes between pro- and anti-regime crowds could “augur a
civil war.” If there were such a conflict, so much the worse for the
unarmed, ostensibly non-violent protest movement. The weird thing about
so much pro-Green commentary in the West is that it is the movement’s
sympathizers who are heartened by reports that the movement and its
leaders are becoming more combative and more radically opposed to the
entire regime. They seem to think that the less chance for compromise
between the regime and the opposition, the better this will be for the
opposition, but this seems unlikely. If clashes this week prompted
widespread violence and open rebellion against the government, the
opposition would be outnumbered and outgunned all over the country. A
civil war, such as it would be, would be short, bloody and not to the
advantage of the Green movement.

Whenever I point out that the Green movement probably represents a
minority of the minority of pro-Mousavi Iranians, I am reminded that
revolutions are led by minorities, but to date there have been no
successful revolutions against governments like this one led by a
distinct minority that also has no military forces on its side. The
“color” revo… >>>

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