Let me say in advance – RIGHT NOW and at this stage of the Green movement the worst thing the world can do is to engage IR militarily. However, the following is to make all of us think and prepare for potential scenarios in the future. This is an evaluation of a potential scenario to promote brainstorm on possibilities. I do foresee an armed confrontation needed to disarm the last of those who may be willing to take arms defending the dictator – but I think Iranians will be able to take care of that themselves.
As most of you know – an 8000+ man USA/NATO/Afghan force initiated a military surge against Taliban in Afghanistan last week. Here I want to examine what are the things that could happen, if such force with full air support enters Iran from the west, let’s say towards Kermanshah. What do you think happens in the first hours ?
Let me start with:
1- IR propaganda machine will issue a statement: USA is helping Kurds to separate from Iran.
2- How many armed fighting man IR has in all of the City of Kermanshah? I have no clue, but I am guessing 10,000. When I say armed fighting men – I mean Pasdars and Basij that will pick arms to confront an ivading military. Because their training is against domestic foes – I think majority of this force will flea or hide to later engage in gorilla style defense. I foresee very few of them to be willing to confront a military head to head – knowing they will be devasted from air.
just thinking out loud……
3- How would Artesh (Iran Military not IR military) react? How would the local Police (Niroohaye Entezami) react? I think they will stay neutral as they have in the last 30 years. Or if they are positioned – they will do the same thing Sadam Army did – knowing their resistance will be devastated due to lack of air support.