AN ISRAELI attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities could launch a protracted regional war and encourage Tehran to build nuclear weapons.
This is the conclusion of a 14-page briefing paper, Military Action Against Iran: Impact and Effects , issued yesterday by the Oxford Research Group, which promotes peaceful resolution of conflicts.
The report, written by Paul Rogers, professor of peace studies at Bradford University, points out that Israel’s “potential for action against Iran” has been increased by domestic support and enhanced capabilities, including long-range bombers acquired from the US, drones, tanker aircraft for refuelling, and the establishment by the US, Israel’s ally, of “support facilities” in northern Iraq and Azerbaijan which could be used as staging areas.
The report says that a strike could not be carried out without US “tacit support”, thereby implicating Washington and risking Iranian attacks on US interests, troops, and allies in the Middle East.
Israeli air action would “target a wide range of nuclear and missile facilities” as well as “factories, research centres and university facilities that would underpin the rebuilding of [destroyed nuclear] facilities”. Since such targets are located in or near Iran’s cities, there would be “significant civilian casualties”, states the report. If attacked, it argues, Iranians would unite behind their government which would withdraw from the Non-Proliferatio…