The greatest potential conflict of interest between the US and the IRI is over the control of Middle East oil. Flynt and Hillary Leveretts’ recent research has shown that this conflict is a reality not just a potential. Furthermore, the Leveretts have argued that the IRI is the only viable Iranian regime, the Green movement being inconsequential. A simple 2 plus 2 argument adds up to a US war with Iran.
War is about control of Middle East oil:
A quote in a recent Atlantic Magazine article explains Iran’s threat to US oil interests:
“…if America allowed Iran to cross the nuclear threshold, the small Arab countries of the Gulf would have no choice but to leave the American orbit and ally themselves with Iran, out of self-protection. “There are many countries in the region who, if they lack the assurance the U.S. is willing to confront Iran, they will start running for cover towards Iran,”…”
This hawkish statement sets up a scary threat. But is it a likely threat? Don’t worry, some could say, the Arabs would never line up behind Iran. This is where the Leveretts swoop in to spike the setup. Their research claims that the Arabs would do exactly that. They give poll data to back up the following statement:
In six Arab countries where the ruling authorities have devoted a lot of effort in recent years telling their people that the Islamic Republic aspires to regional hegemony, is seeking nuclear weapons, and that this would be a bad outcome for Arab interests — local Arab populations are not buying the argument.
In other words, if Iran goes nuclear the US supported ruling Arab elite would fall and the new Arab regimes would be Iran influenced. A nuclear Iran really does mean that the US no longer controls the Middle East. To spell out what this means to the US: dominance over the world’s energy supply is at the heart of the American financial and military empire. Lose this control, lose the empire. This is an existential threat paralleling the one claimed by Israel.
Where the Green movement comes in:
To have a chance at rescuing Iran from this war, Iranians need to show that the Leveretts are wrong about the Green movement being unimportant. We need to show that there is an alternative to the IRI. And very importantly we have to show that Green governments will not rely on international conflict for survival the way the IRI does. In particular, the movement needs a well thought out, peaceful, and clearly articulated Israel-Palestine policy, and it needs to let the whole world know it. The Green movement was at first about votes, then about civil rights, now it is about our country’s survival.