However, beneath the surface all is not well. The method by which Ahmadinejad is implementing the reform package, plus its timing, means that the regime could be about to bring in one of the most self-defeating measures in its history. In fact, the package could cause more damage to the legitimacy of the regime, and its all-important economic engine, than any western-imposed sanctions. This is because the scheme is very likely to hurt the poor, where the regime gets most of its support.
The damage could also reach all the way to the top. The group that stands to lose the most will be the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC).
The reason is simple: upon closer inspection, we can see that the package is badly planned and executed. One of its major short- and long-term consequences is that it is going to push inflation up, for two reasons.