Contrary to our own belief, Iranians are a simple (I mean stupid) people. Most of us don’t read books, most can’t understand concepts. We are generally bad with common sense and most other senses too. Go blame Islam, Shiite, tyranny or whatever – it doesn’t change the fact of the matter … we are “simple” and only simple plans have ever worked on us.
To rest my case, here I have a simple list of examples (plans that worked on us vs. those that failed):
– Successful Example: Agha Mohammad Khan whose motto was; “surrender or die”.
– unsuccessful example: Constitutional Revolution and the idea of rule of law, parliment and democracy for a country filled with millions of little dictators.
– Successful Example: Reza Shah whose motto was; “Isn’t this mine? Well, now it is!”
– unsuccessful example: Mosaddegh and the total collapse of the parlimentary system under the weight of “people’s will”, people’s choice and people’s vote.
– Successful Example: Savak rule for 25 years with the motto of; “divar moosh dareh – mosham goosh dareh”. Actually except for 6 months you can say that Savak (or Savama) has kept ruling.
– unsuccessful example: Islamic Republic of Iran with a promised just system based on the three pilars of Islam, Democracy and National independence (esteghlal, azadi, jomhori eslami).
– Successful Example: Absolute Rule of Mullah (velayat motlagheh faghih).
QED! Now, for the opposition to succeed … they need a very simple goal, a very simple plan, and a very simple (read stupid and stubborn) leader. I say “they”, because people like me have always been and will always stay outside the government of Iran (except for very short times and except to lose all we have).
I believe that people like me should only support what the Iranian people decide to do on their own free will … be it Green, Red, Yellow or Black. It is their freedom of choice that is important – not what they choose with open eyes and ears – free from pressure and fascist tactics.
In terms of opposition, we should support the rights of all opposition groups to freedom of speech and freedom from persecution … as long as they reject actions against basic Human Rights and International Law.
“Bombing” is simple too and can also “Work”, but at what price? And don’t kid yourself, air-tight-sanction is an act of war, and just a prelude to bombing … it will be Iraq all over again!