A Theocracy Loving Academic made a startling admission yesterday:
“The 2013 Presidential elections will have the same outcome as 1997 or 2009, the only solution is a Prime Minister.” (quoting Sadegh Zibakalam).
TRANSLATION: “We crushed the atrociously-led Green Movement afterwards but so what? The people still hate us. We can no more win a free election than we can survive free and open speech. So do something.”
They did something in 2009 as you recall. In 2013 look for an Iranian equivalent to Hitler’s “Night of the Long Knives” not long after “election results” are announced. If a green victory could not be tolerated then, an Ahmadinjad victory cannot be permitted now. Aware of the likely reaction from sad experience (though not as mammoth in 2009) and of Ahmadinejad’s capacity for scheming, the mullahs will have no choice but to move pre-emptively.
COMMON SENSE: When a country (any country) has three rival factions–one of whom enjoys a monopoly over firepower– the results of any one-on-one struggle involving the latter are preordained. Ahmadinejad’s faction will be purged. On their own, the Greens’ military prospects are even worse. That leaves a return to 2009’s strategy when the Greens imagined they could overcome Hitler’s equivalent by holding hands, lighting candles and singing, “Kumbaya Lord.”
All factions who are “at risk” under the mullahs must stop sneering at one another and unite before it’s too late. You don’t do so from love, friendship, trust, etc. but from sheer necessity. That such an alliance proably won’t survive victory matters little. If any subsequent struggle is military, neither side will enjoy a security force monopoly. If it is political, Iranians are far better off compared to present alternatives.
Election rigging won’t be as easy. The “democrats” will offer people most of the rights they are insisting on these days while Ahmadinejad, who enjoys little trust outside his own faction, can offer social freedoms only. His sole political hope would be to encourage reformers to form multiple parties while his sticks together. It worked for Milosevic in Serbia so democratic forces must avoid that danger.