Don’t be fooled by the late arrival and insufficient numbers of police. Common sense tells us who did it and that the regime knew what was coming. When an anticipated event is undesired, it fills every corner with security forces and plainclothes types (also useful in attack the homes and persons of critics).
PREDICTIONS: Expect regime to “deplore” the attack, though referring to it as “understandable.” Expect it to demand “proof” while it holds the keys to the evidence box. I’m reminded of the Taliban’s ludicrous demands for “proof” that Bin Laden did 9/11 as a condition for handing him over. When a totalitarian regime controls all evidence, its citizens and heads of all nations have no choice but to rely on common sense and the logic of Occam’s Razor (look it up) to reach reasonable conclusions and act accordingly.
WHO ELSE BUT THE BASILJ? They were created and are commonly used for thuggish purposes. The tipoff here is in the word “student.” Most real students admire free countries and despise the regime. Basilj thugs have flooded the universities under a well plan “affirmative action program” designed for use against other students, either by intimidationand beatings or by infiltration and spying. The Basilj don’t carry out such actions without approval from the top. Another safe prediction: As in the case of death squads, no important party involved will get punished. The same was true of all those involved in attacks on regime critics, jounalists, human rights spokesmen, their families, their defense attorneys and their funerals since the 2009 election. Khamenei always provides “free passes” for thoe who carry out his assignments.
Having gained so much by exploiting a spontaneous incident for their own purposes 30 years ago, the extremist mullahs who rule Iran hope for similar benefits this time. Goal #1: Intimidate foreigners (which will backfire). Goal #2: Once again, exploit Iranian nationalism to whip up popular support hoping people won’t notice.
Such things are what Bad Guys do, not accidentally or spontaneously. As a father figure, Khamenei resembles the sort of daddy figure who is closes windows doors and seals up windows, hoping neighbors won’t scream as he beats his kids. Khamenei’s close buddy, the murderous Assad, has also sent mobs to attack embassies. As in Syria (and unlike 1979) the takeovers are brought to an end once the “message” has been sent. These types work together, offering one another useful tips, training, equipment and even manpower.
How gullible does Khamenei think people are? Given the regime’s situation at home and abroad in the Arab Spring, this isn’t the brightest move. It also tends to add credence to charges of rigged elections and regime involvement in the boneheaded scheme to assassinate the Saudi ambassador and kill Americans via drug dealing surrogates. A likely consequence is that many foreign embassys will close “for the duration.” To do otherwise is to remain hostage to potential attack and worse at any time. Let this outlaw regimecarry out contact with the rest of the world via the Swiss. Hence it’s already growing isolation will likely increase further, accelerating problems at home.
Thirty years ago students staged a GENUINELY spontaneous attack on the US embassy and Iranians have paid dearly for it every since. For once, the extreme Islamist who now rule Iran did not initiate a major move but they sure took advantage of it. Time and again, someone in this regime has demonstrate an expertise in historical knowlege of totalitarian systems and how they get things done. In 1979 the US Embassy takeover was deliberately exploited to achieve exactly what the Nazis achieved by the Reichstag fire–the elimination of all domestic competition and the introduction of emergency laws that gave them full power to round up any enemy at any time.
In 1979 the clerics were slow to back the embassy takeover until they saw its inherent opportunities. Obviously it is impossible that the hostages could be held for a year otherwise. The takeover allowed the regime to purge the revolutionary leadership of all rival factions through revolutionary courts led by a hanging judge. Once they were introduced and the Shah’s officer and leadership class eliminated, it would be easdy to move on to other “inconvenient’ personnel, including the man who became the regime’s chief spokesman during the hostage taking.
EARLIER MULLAH TRICKERY IRANIAN PEOPLE NEED TO RECALL–THE ABADAN FIRE, ACID-ARMED FANATICS, ETC.
The Iranian people, caught up in the present tactics, tend to forget some of the regime’s horrendous deeds going back to just before the revolution, which make its present behavior know surprise.
Look up their “popular” campaign to close hundreds of movie theaters as “unislamic.” Note the techique used to curb real popular resistance and teach people “a lesson.” The Abadan fire happened before most Iranians today were born nut they should look it up. Notice the cynical disinformation and who got blamed for it.
Around the time of the US embassy taking, the extremist clerics were engaged in another “tip off” which should have given the Iranian people a good idea of their impending future under the mullahs. Millions of Iranians resisted hajib as millions had insisted on going to “unislamic” movies. These women has an disrespectful attitude (“No one can make me wear hajib or discard my jeans”) so they needed a harsh lesson and similar “exanples to show thm who was boss in place of the Shah. Lacking thousands of religious police, the mullahs had to improvise. So that brings us to Quiz Time: Will someone else–in a subpost–tell everyone how the hard line mullahs, who included many of today’s top regime figures, pulled it off? C’mom, spill the beans please.
For the attack on the British embassy see Scott Lucas report at Enduring America (which is filtered in Iran).