Developments in Iran over the last 24 hours suggest Iran’s regime seems to be coming apart rapidly in two areas 1) the economy and 2) a loss of faith in Khamenei’s leadership among former stalwarts.
THE PERFECT IMAGE CAPTURES IRAN’S ECONOMIC PLIGHT RIGHT NOW
Legend says a little Dutch boy once tried to stop a leaking dike with his fingers. Substitute the Hoover Dam for that dike. Substitute the regime’s economic management team for the boy. No wonder economic panic is growing and it can only get worse as an oil boycott looms.
STALWARTS CAN NO LONGER AVOID SEEING HOW BADLY KHAMENEI HAS SCREWED UP
Whether you love or hate the Islamic Republic, one yardstick for evaluating any leader is by his success or failure at meeting desired goals. Khamenei has been a six-way failure as I wrote in a post not long ago. He could resign tomorrow and his successors clould reverse the most hated policies 180 degrees but it won’t undo the harm Khamenei has done since 2009. The Islamic Republic is too deeply tarnished to survive.
Khamenei always had psychological tendencies historians associated with lousy leadership–total inflexibility, a reference for reactionary advisers only, an inability to choose alternative policies, a visceral hatred for any reforms and an all stick, no carrot style but insiders could kid themselves until fatal decisions starting with the 2009 election. The three worst were include the empowerment of Ahmadinejad (now a threat), handing so much political and economic power over to a Praetorian Guard (soon a threat) and the utter evisceration of reformers (now too radicalized to ever trust anyone associated with this sinking ship–especially not Khamenei).
For two years now Khamenei has reassured conservatives with cult-like utterances: “Trust Me.” “Stick together, stay the course and we’ll get out of this” and “A little more intimidation and we’ll see the sun again” As darkness grows and prospects look bleaker than ever, isome Stalwarts conclude “We’ve been had!” A Fuehrer once safe from criticism is leading his insiders to a final bunker somewhere in Iran.
In one or two subposts, I look at exactly which late developments are so troublesome.
