ROUNDUP: Why Iranians should keep a eye on events in six countries

THE SUDAN: A TWIN TO TO THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC NATURALLY RUNS INTO SAME PROBLEMS

Every hard-line Islamist state alienates its population the same way. Regardless of any initial enthusiasm, most Iranians and Sudanese now describe their lives as hellish.Ironically states that endorse Islam by compusion contradict the the Koran (“There shall be no compulsion in Islam?”) Don’t these guys ever read it?

A GENERAL PRINCIPLE: Totalitarian Islamist regimes are always corrupt, always brutal, always economically incompetent and grow more so as time passes. When popular discontent emerges, they always reach for the same cure: Islamic law enforced more harshly than ever. Somehow it never works. Iranians will think they are looking in the mirror when they read this:

http://www.enduringamerica.com/home/2012/1/30/suda…

TUNISIA: IRAN’S UGLY CRONE ACQUIRES ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL RIVAL

Khamenei is having a hard time convincing young Arabs that Iran’s model is the way to go. Now he faces competition from two–not one–democratic Islamist countermodels. Neither Turkey or Tunisia are oil rich, unlike Iran, but both seem headed for prosperity while the IRI’s economic future looks permanently bleak. For young Arabs its like picking between THIS:

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm1083404/

And THIS:

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/01/…

When Islamist rule collapses in Iran it will be gone for good, so discredited that even democratic Islamist parties will struggle for votes. As for what’s happening in Tunisia by contrast, check out this Al Jazeerah video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedd…

SYRIA: IS THIS HOW THE IRI WILL COLLAPSE?

This morning the Washington Post has an outstanding report on how quickly things are falling apart for Assad, Khamenei’s ally. It leads me to compare the relative advantages and disadvantages of these two regimes in coping with their massive unpopularity.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/sy…

COMMON FACTORS: Externally both regimes enjoy pariah status. Internally neither can win back the population now, thanks to key decisions and lack of a time machine to undo them. In both, downward momentum continues with no respite in site.

WHERE IRAN HAS AN ADVANTAGE: The IRI is better prepared in terms of numbers, practice and experience for crushing any uprising. Unlike Assad, it also knows trouble is evitable. The main question in Iran’s case is impossible to predict, “Exactly when will the explosion will occur?” That it will happen is inevitable. The longer the delay, the larger the explosion and the less reliable security forces will be.

WHERE IRAN IS WORSE OFF: When the current protests broke out in Syria, Assad was still reasonably popular, Syria was not isolated externallly and any “fire under the ashes” was relatively undetectable. If and when protests break out again in Iran, Khamenei will enjoy none of the advantages Assad had initially. Secondly, confidence and morale remained relatively high among Assad’s support groups until very recently (especially the last two weeks). The next wave of demonstrations haven’t even started, and long time supporters sense the hot water Khamenei’s decisions have created for them. They are even speaking out publicly. Finally, for so many reasons the West and neighbors won’t hesitate if brutalized Iranians appeal for a no-fly zone and other assistance.

EGYPT: THE PROBLEM OF THE GENERALS TRANSFERRED TO IRAN

To enable his crimes, Khamenei created and nurtured two monsters, Ahmadinejad and and ecomically and politically empowered security forces. The first has already begun to turn on him. If the ship appears certain to go down, the generals may turn on Khamenei for the same reason they did so in Egypt and Ceaucescu’s Rumania–to save themselves and hold on to what they’ve gained. Thus, if Khamenei is ousted by coup or by civil war, the generals will likely be as much trouble afterwards as their Egyptian counterparts.

The only two scenarios I see that avoid it are internal (a victory by Khoumeini’s grandson in the 2013 presidential election) or partly external (The regime is totally ousted after provoking war through reckless military actions in the Persian Gulf).

LIBYA: WILL IRAN OR SYRIA FRAGMENT AFTER DICTATORS FALL?

Libya is now divided into dozens of fiefs held by different factions that fought to oust Quaddafi. The longer Assad hangs on, the more likely Syria will have the same problem.

For several reasons I don’t see that kind of fragmentation after the IRI falls and regardless of how it falls. The danger may be minority breakaway movements motivated by thirty plus years of persecution. Urged to be patient and trust the new government, minorities may have genuine fear no matter how sincere the offers.

Another danger may come from hard-line Islamists. In Tunisia a small Salafist minority has been making demands but has little popular support among a people used to western lifestyles. In Iran moderate Islamists may form truely democractic parties but they’ll have a hard time getting votes after the bitter experiences under Khamenei. Hard line Islamists may resort to “asymetric” meansures used earlier. Will women who dump hajibs or wear skirts suffer acid attacks? Will movie theaters be bombed (look up the Abadan fire)? Will barbershops and restaurants that serve liquor suffer attacks? Some compusory deprogramming of likely suspects may be required.

RUSSIA: WILL DISCORD AT HOME UNDERMINE RUSSIAN SUPPORT FOR KHAMENEI & ASSAD?

Russia is an authoritarian regime disguised as a democracy.  When weather permits, it will likely face its own protest movement consisting  of unnaturally incompatible factions (fascists, communists, western-style democrats) not likely to trust one another and lacking a moderate leader (George Washington, Nelson Mandela) to unify everyone afterwards. We may see large-scale outbreaks in too many places too far apart for the re gime to stifle but its fall could take years of increasing hardship and discontent.

Iranians should ask themselves two questions: Will Russia’s domestic problems hinder support for Assad and Khamenei? Will discord spread to China with consequences in the Mideast?  The Chinese have suffered from disunity, revolution and civil war, just as Iranians have and may be reluctant to act for the same reasons. On the other hand, the larger a middle class becomes in China (its growth is critical to economic prosperity), the more the growing and powerful group will insist on a say in government proportionate to its contributions.

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