Netanyahu: Errors and SMART military action

Prime Minister Netanyahu is going through a bad patch both at home and aboard. Ask the majority of Israelis and the elite political establishment and there is a consensus that something must be done about the Islamic Republic occupying Iran. The question is how? For many years Israel has had an unofficial policy of detente with the Islamic Republic, and even co-existing peacefully with it to the point where both countries enjoyed bilaterlal trade through foreign intermediaries and third countries such as Turkey. Israeli-American commodity broker Marc Rich ensured that Iranian oil continued to flow in the West at rock bottom prices per barrel proving that the revolution in Iran, despite aits anti-Western rhetoric a commercial bonanza. Iranian marble and pistachios flodded Tel Aviv markets while Israeli hardware made its way into the mullahs hand even up to very recerntly when the Israeli shipping company, the Ofer brothers, sold a tanker to a Dubai company that subsequently was passed on to the Terrorist Regime. The IR threat to Israel has been neutralised through containment and a long drawn out war between Iran and Iraq which ensured the devil’s hand in Tehran was not kept idle.

Now the IR has become a genuine thorn in the side of Israel. It has itensified its proxy war with Israel through Palestinian militants in Gaza and made sure arms found its way to Hezbollah in Lebanon in the tragic Israeli-Lebanon conflict of 2006. And there is no hiding the IR’s defiance of Israel. Ahmdienjad symbollically visited south Lebanon and stood kilometres away from the Israeli border while channeling millions of petro-dollars to rebuild the civilian infrastructure destroyed by Israel. The IR Terrorists have also widened the conflict to ensure that Jewish interests such as a community centre in Argentina was also destroyed.

The failure of successive Israeli government to deal with the IR threat from the beginning instead of playing a dangerous game of cat and mouse has cost the citizens of Israel.

Now the IR is a problem. The point is, how do you deal with it sensibly and unify politicians across the political divide. Instead of building a strong coalition behing him Netanyahu has drawn criticism from the President of Israel, to generals such as Benny Grantz and former chief of Mossad Meir Dagan who would noramlly be sympathetic and gung-ho about targetting Iran. Military action IS the correct apporoach- the use of force against the Mullahs is necessary and justified-but what is your target and what is your end goal?

Netayahu’s mistakes are too many to chart. By ratcheting the nuclear threat and highlighting the dangers of weapons of mass destruction by the IR Terrorist regime was attractive but a blunder of epic proportions. Yes, nuclear weapons in the hand of the IR Terror regime is great, but it is is years away from being able to develop enough centrifuges to delploy a nuclear war head anywhere near Israel. Nentanyahu underestimated a war weary and skeptical American public and a US President whose full support is needed for any attack against the IR nuclear installations. A unilateral conflict with the IR Terrorist regime could be costly for Israel even if it is ultimately far more powerful militarily than the IR. Netanyahu’s position was further weakened by the fact that Israel is not a member of NPT despite having a cache of hundreds of nuclear war heads which it has never used. The correct approach would have been to concentrate on the brutal nature of the IR itself. By Netanyahu’s own admission the IR has been antagonisng Israel and killing its civilians ever since its inception three decades ago without weapons of mass destruction. Netanyahu could chronicle more than a dozen terrorist outrages from the Mykonos restaurant to the Hezbollah bombing of a US marine barracks in 1984. Netanyahu could have capitalised on the thousands of political executions, stoning, rape and extra-judicial killings of Iranian civilians to bolster his case against the IR in the same way as the US sugar coated its attack on Saddam Hussein as Operation Freedom Iraq. Honesty is the best policy. The corrupt and evil record of the bestial Islamic Republic is enough to justify any military action against the IR. By not doing so, he has fallen into the same trap as his former US counterpart George W Bush, and Tony Bliar. No one believes him any more, Not even his generals. To worsen the case, Netanyahu has continuously compared the threat of the IR Terror Regime to the Holocaust and by doing so he has insulted the collective memory of the survivors of Auschwitz and Krakow, whose suffering in the Nazi death camps was unique. Even Shimon Peres could not resist rebuking his constant ill-advised comparisons.

An attack on the nuclear installations will not weaken the IR but embolden it and widen its support. It is also unconsciable and would leed to death of thousand of civilians in vain. There could be no moral justification in this.

So what should be done? Netanyahu is obviously between a rock and a hard place. Any decision he makes will be assailed by opponents of both the Left and Right of the Israeli poltical establishment. However, what he needs to do now is concentrate on SMART military action (Specified, Measured, Attainable, Realistic and Targeted). This is a term used in pedagogy to describe teacher’s learning outcomes. Israel’s interests co-incide with patriotic Iranians serious in their determination to liberate Iran. Israel must work more closely with Iranian opposition groups.

So what would be SMART military action against the IR.

Stage 1

Intelligence gathering. Carry out IR. Surveillance operations need to be carried out on an IRCG commanders, revolutionary guards and the inner circle of Syed Kahemenei, the spiritual leader as well as the Green politicians . Find out their wherabouts, the routines.

Stage 2

Exploit schisms within the IR, especially with reformists/Greens and the various hardline fanctions loyal to Ahmadinejad like the Iran-Iraq war. Mousavi, is a criminal himself who was prime minister during the nineteen eigties at the height of executions and mass murder of Iranians including the 1988 purge of prisons. Widen the hostility between the two camps and gradually escalate the acrimony to full blown conflict between pro-Mosuavi and pro-Ahamadinejad/Khemeni supporters. Stage target assassinations of so-called reformists politicians and Kahemeni loyalists provoking direct retaliation and provide them with logistical and arm support. Mossad and its agents can help in Iran. Hopefully, this would lead to a series of tit-for-tat retaliation, which would gradually destablise the government. By the time Syed Khamenei’s grip is sufficiently weakened a full insurrection will arise and Iranians will flock to the streets again as they did in 2009. A full civil war can errupt. Kahmeni will not stop at trying to brutally crackdown on his people as Gaddafi did.

Stage 3

Strike while the iron is hot.

Exploit the poltiical turmoil. Surgical strikes on the IR communication centre, the sedaye sima milad tower and cause complete media blackout. Begin surgical strikes on the IRCG outposts and revolutionary guards. The US to instruct all Arab allies to close borders with the IR. Station military outposts across all neighbouring countries preventing escape. The IR will be incapable of retaliating at a weakened point putting Israel a win-win situation.

Set the stage for transitional government and Iran Liberation Army to take over.

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