About an hour ago I wrote here that it’s likely a substantial number of regime figures were seriously wounded, some critically.  Now Reuthers has posted this. 


No sign of Assad after bomb kills kin, battles rage

Under my “Joy, Oh Joy! I argued that the bomb had to injure far more people than it killed or it would be really unusual.  Some victims had to be in critical condition and others unable to function within the near future against insurgents.    Bashir himself would have to be there (a 99% probability) though I didn’t mention him.  Unless he is dead or seriously wounded, wouldn’t he have addressed the nation on TV or radio.  With lighter wounds but if heavily bandaged he might be reluctant to appear because his appearance would have negative consequences.

Maybe I’m just hoping and Bashir will show up.  I hadn’t thought about his failure to speak publiclly when I wrote that but I should have.  His brother, who I mentioned as a possible victim could be in the field though I doubt he’d miss such a meeting or leave without a scratch.  From all I’ve read, including accounts from two major defectors, Bashir is a micromanager and micromanagers don’t miss such meetings.

I suggested that the lack of any figures for wounded suggests something big is being covered up.  Since virtually all insiders responsible for big decisions regarding the crackdown (and few lesser figures to prevent incrimination news leaking out)any wouded personnel would be important.   F I pointed out why the other serious losses can’t remain secret for long, especially among insiders.  Maybe that’s what we are seeing now as the press begins to ask questions. If Bashir doesn’t speak in the next 48 hours lots of Syrians, Iranians and foreign reporters will be doing serious speculating.

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