One by one, very systematically, one mediteranean nation after another has witnessed transformational political change. What happened? Why did the Obama adminstration “liberate” 165 Million Arabs? Why the sudden rush? Why did it all have to happen now – not 10 years ago or 20 years ago? I keep wondering why?
As I was looking for answers, I came across a picture of all the fields in the mediteranean from Libya to Turkey.
By 2030 the world will need 20 million barrells oil a day more than it has today. Control of this oil (and gas) will determine the relative power structure and ultimately economic supremacy of the world. Major economic blocks are vulnerable with very limited options for ‘controling’ their sources of energy. Western Europe especially seems increasingly dependent on a sole source for natural gas – namely Russia’s Gazprom. Gazprom is a defacto part of the Russian Government, and Putin essentially determines Gazprom’s operations.
If you haven’t guessed it already, then here’s the rub: the Europeans are looking at major new sources from the Mediteranean. And this shift in Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Egypt is all about long-term control of these resources.
But there are also substantial resources in the water between Israel, Cyprus, Turkey, Lebanon and Greece. Israel in particular is has much of its off shore fields right at the border with Lebanon; and there is a dispute between the two over these fields. A two degree shift in the direction the national boundary between Israel and Lebanon in the water can have billions of dollars of impact on Israel’s revenues. The best way to secure these fields is for Israel to set up a “buffer zone” about 50 miles into Lebanon and with that the dispute over these fields disappears. These fields are the largest single discovery of Oil and Gas in the past 10 years. See the picture.
Israel is planning a major invasion of Lebanon soon. It has been planning it for many years. Everytime anything happens they blame Hezbollah or Iran!!
Right now Israel can’t do much in Lebanon because, Lebanese security is ultimately guaranteed by Assad’s Syria and Khamenei’s Iran. Syria plays a pivotal role in not only providing resources directly, but in facilitating Iranian involvement in Lebanon. Hezbollah in particular has been exremely potent to Israeli forays in the past and would be rendered impotent without Assad (and in turn Iranian) assistance.
While Syria slowly rebuilds, Israel will march into Lebanon. Very soon, Israel will become fully self-sufficient in terms of its own energy supply; and then become a major energy exporter to Europe. All of this will undermine Russian hegemony; undermine Iranian hegemony. As long as all the trades are in U.S. dollars, and American companies are involved, the U.S. too will be ecstatic. By the way, Nobel Energy (from Houston) is a major investor in Israel’s off-shore fields.
Turkey is currently a major access point to Caspian see oil and gas with its port in Ceyhan. And Turkey in particular sees itself as a major broker in this game going forward.
If you think all this is garbage, you might want to think of all the shanigans that went down in Iran and Russia to ‘open up’ the Caspian Sea to Western Oil companies. And the Mullahs have been extremely quite while Iran’s interests in the Caspian diminished to 11% from 50% and millions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of gas by pass Iran through Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.
You have to believe the Iranians and Russians know all this. So what is the end game. Could the Mullahs in Iran be playing a double game? Pretending to allign with Hezbollah, Syria and Russia while undermining their interests. Why are they flying acorss Iraq? Passing their ships through the Suez canal? Why are the Mullahs in power in Iran after 30 years? Why? Mollah = Nokar!!
Lets Follow the money.