Yesterday I mentioned this apparent trend, which also includes far more potent and vindictive air attacks on civilian areas as another way of responding to opposition successes. Today, Enduiing America has posted their own analysis of the change in strategy and why it has occurred.
EXCERPT
The clashes of recent days have been far more widespread, but smaller in scale. The Free Syrian Army is conducting more guerrilla-style warfare, individual attacks designed to remove the regime’s initiative, cramp its supply lines, soften its hardened locations, and damped its morale. The response to those attacks has been disproportionate, indiscriminate, and ruthless, with the civilians paying the highest toll.
One thing is self-evident: Khamenei’s “identical twin” and surviving members of his inner circle have burned all bridges. It’s virtually inconceivable that anyone–including Putin–would dare give any of these thugs a safe exil afterwards.
Modernizing and updating the dictionary when a new word becomes necessary: “TO PUTINIZE.”
This isn’t the first time I’ve used that word and I’ll continue to use it until it catches on.
The Baathist Party is based on the Germany’s National Socialist or Nazi model which also used some of these tactics but not to the same extent. For a Nazi example look up Heydrich /Lidice online. The Nazis also used such reprisal against civilians tactics–though not on the same scale–in Italy, France, Holland, etc.–and on a major scale in ethnically cleansing the area now known as Belarus where in over 600 towns civilians were herded into the largest building in town, doors were sealed and it was set afire.
What’s different here is the employment of such tactics on such a scale to suppress rebellion. The man who invented such tactics and applied them successfully in Chechnya was Russia’s current ruler, Vladimir Putin, who is widely believed to have suggested their use to Assad several months ago.
WILL KHAMENENEI “PUTINIZE” THE IRANIAN PEOPLE IF THEY BALK?
If such methods worked in suppressing rebellion in Chechnya, why should they not work in Syria or Iran. The problem is that in Chechnya Russian troops were asked to do so againt an alien “they.” In Syria, troops are being asked to kill people like themselves and that makes an incredible difference in their effectiveness. This is another reason why an FSA victory in Syria is so important to Iranians. If Assad were to succeed (I see that as an impossibility) no moral scuples would prevent the murderous Supreme Leader from copying success. A “super failure,” followed by a horrible fate for Assad and his inner circle is the only thing that might restrain Khamenei from doing the same since it would lead to certain defeat.
Nevetheless–and regardless of Assad’s fate–you have to consider that Khamenei has repeated shown himself to be a slow learner, capable of short-run strategiic thinkiing only, and a man whose first and only tendency is to reach for cudgel. Like Assad, the most to which he can assent under popular pressure is minor concessions and–as in Syria–those will never do now.
ITEM: Eleven more people executed today in front of their families according to The Guardian.
Comment: The regime’s clear message is, we will continue to do this so long as you support or shelter the FSA or tolerate anyone in your community who does so.
ITEM: Al Mayadeen journalist have been caught tweeting messages to the Syrian air force regarding rebel positions. The news service is trying to defend itself by claiming to have been hacked, which would be difficult to do. And why would the regime need to do so in order to send such a message? Note that AL Mayadeen has close political ties to Syria, Hezbollah and IRAN.
http://brown-moses.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/syrian-activists-claim-al-mayadeen-news.html
ITEM (from Enduring America): The AFP reports that the Syrian Army has recaptured 3 predominantly Christian neighborhoods in Aleppo, all three of which fell to the Free Syrian Army over the weekend.
ITEM: The FSA is accused of having executed 16 captured security officers (not civilians) in Douma, south of Damascus. These are precisely the kind of people who have been involved in carrying out mass executions for the regime.
Syrians insurgents have captured a series of security bases and police stations in Albukamal, in Deir Ez Zor province, and have at least partial access to many of the border crossings with Iraq. As we’ve been discussing, the Free Syrian Army has won a series of victories in the region, and recently repelled a regime counterattack on FSA positions Deir Ez Zor. The FSA may be close to taking Albukamal, which may be a precursor to an more gains in the east.
