The importance of the battle to topple Assad in Syria is not simply to change the strategic make up in Damascus, or to set up a path for new pipeline feeds from Qatar or Israel for Turkey’s Nabucco pipeline to Europe. No, the real “experiment” if you will, is can a rebel led battle against a well-armed and supported incumbent dictatorships succeed – with careful support from “behind”?
This test succeeded in Libya. In Egypt, this concept was never really tested …since the Military actually held all the cards in toppling Mubarak.
But in Iran, the results of this test are key. It would simply cost too much money and too much blood for Western soldiers to invade and occupy Iran. It’s simply NOT practical given America’s experience in Iraq and Afghanistan. A multi-pronged, rebel led invasion by Iranians on Iranians, would be the way to do it.
Of course, such a fight would have to result in rebels getting some sort of reward for all their effort. What might this reward be? Well, let’s look at what is happening in Syria to get some clues.
First of all we are looking at Syria getting carved up into 3 states. It’s unclear right now if that means a federal arrangement, or three separate nations with separate governments.
Secondly, we are looking at the formation of a Western Kurdistan that will transship oil and gas from Northern Iraq (Central Kurdistan) with a new pipeline to Turkey. Iraqi Kurds are already making independent deals with western oil companies for their oil – separate from the Central Government’s control of all hydrocarbon resources.
Since this is a rebel led war, there is NO formal requirement for major power swords to be drawn. What I mean by that, is, the Russian military is not landing in Syria to thwart off a foreign invasion of Syria – its ally. The battle is seen as an internal affair, not a foreign invasion. This concept is legally brilliant and avoids the escalation of the battle to a global war.
So as we look at the Syrian model, we realize that basically if the rebels succeed. It will be the model used to topple the regime in Tehran. Simultaneous invasions from Northern Iraqi Kurds, Ahwazi from the other side of the Persian Gulf, Azeris in Azerbaijan, Baluchis in Pakistan and Turkmens will mean a 5 front internal war in Iran – with maybe a band of MEK/NCRI/PMOI/MKO/MONKEYS thrown into Tehran to form a 6th internal battle front – with air support from Israel to back it all up. This is the likely scenario in Iran.
And what will come out of all this? A carve up of the country I am sure. There will NOT be an Iran –for you to call yourself and Iranian-American.