As Iran war-fever again breaks out upon the release of the latest IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program, the single most important determinant of ‘how many years Iran is from a nuclear weapon’ bears repeating: according to U.S. and Israeli intelligence, Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon. Amidst this media frenzy, one can forget that centrifuges spinning on their own don’t speed toward nuclear weapons. People (in governments) make the political decision about whether or not to make nuclear weapons. As countless top national security experts have pointed out, diplomacy is the best way to persuade the people in Iran — yes, there are living breathing people behind those centrifuges — to never make that decision.
