The anniversaries of the Green Movement of the Iranian people pass in Iran with almost no noticeable event. At the same time, while the Arab Spring has turned many countries in the Middle East and North Africa upside down, it seems that these developments may have no effect in Iran. Many of the supporters of the Green Movement have gone silent. The so-called traditional leaders of the Green Movement are on house arrest and their representatives are out of the country. In short, they have proved to be ineffective in mobilizing the people. There is a deep sense of political depression in Iranian society.
Why didn’t it work?
Disagreement within the Green Movement of Iran existed from its inception. Immediately after the June 2009 elections (which resulted in the victory of Ahmadinejad for a second term), the divide between the so-called leaders of the movement (Mir Hussein Mousavi, the former Prime Minister of Iran and Mehdi Karroubi the former Speaker of the Majles, and to a limited extent, Mohammad Khatami, the former reformist president of Iran, and even to a lesser degree Hashemi Rafsanjanj, the former president of Iran) and the body of the movement, meaning the people who actually demonstrated in the streets, was obvious.
Most of the demonstrators were people from the younger generations who were fed up with the Islamic regime and wanted to move Iran towards democracy, freedom, and human rights–away from the religious fanatics, whereas the so-called Green Movement leaders never intended to move in such direction. Because they were well aware that if the regime of Iran collapsed entirely, they too would go down. These differences, along with several others wore down the movement:
1- Suppression by the regime: The regime of the Islamic Republic has been thinking of and making preparations for such days from long ago. They had practiced and mobilized their resources on ways to tackle street demonstrations. The suppression was implemented with high efficiency. During the last couple of years the regime has used all its resources for identifying and neutralizing all elements related to what they call “Fetneh” (Sedition). One of the strongest aspects of the Green Movement was its wide use of social media, but the regime has used the same methods against them. The unethical and unprofessional use of social media by the supporters of the Green Movement (through spreading all kinds of lies without any attention to the consequences of such acts) helped the regime in tackling those tactics.
2- The misguided leadership: The leadership of the Green Movement was so sensitive to maintaining their relations with the regime that they kept repeating in their statements the issues against which people had revolted. They always talked about Constitutional Law of the IRI (which contains the Velayate Faghih, represented now by Khamenei) and they always expressed their desires for restoring the golden days! of Ayatollah Khomeini. This looked and still looks ridiculous for the body of the Green Movement.
3- The mistakes in tactics suggested by the leaders and their advisors aimed at preserving the movement. Some of the tactics which were used in very sensitive and crucial junctures, including the their so-called “Trojan Horse” proved to be disastrous. This “Trojan Horse” called on the the supporters of the movement to take part in the demonstrations on the occasion of the anniversary of the establishment of the IRI, without carrying anything that indicated their affiliation to the Green Movement; and at a crucial point to take out all of their Green signs and banners and start demonstrating. No one knew when was the crucial point and the suppressive forces were ready to suppress them because they were fully aware of it. The operation failed and the regime mocked this the strategy by referring to it as “Trojan Donkey”. On another occasion, the Green Movement supporters took part in the Friday Prayers while disregarding the basic rules of prayer and they made themselves a laughing subject for the Islamic zealots and their allies.
4- Lack of support from wider society: The movement failed to get the support of important layers of the society such as the government employees and workers. Also, the movement was limited to certain parts of certain cities. It was limited to the educated, middle class that computer-aware people who use email and Twitter.
5- Reformists trying to go their own way: During the last few years the reformists have been trying to distance themselves from the Green Movement. Mohammad Khatami, the former Reformist president of Iran, said: the Green Movement deviated from the Iranian reforms.
6- Lack of foreign support: The foreign countries out of concerns about the policies of the new-comers, and at the same time due to the international situation (economic crisis) and the negotiations with the government of Iran on the nuclear issue, didn’t show any concrete support for the movement.
7- Ambiguity of ideology and policy: During the last two years, the Green Movement has tried to overcome this issue. They have compiled and published a manifesto but it still contains many ambiguities. It is not clear what the leaders of the Green movement want to achieve. For instance: What is their policy towards the US? What do they think about the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the UN Convention for Eradication of All Forms of Discrimination Against Women? And what is their position with regard to the nuclear program?
Due to the above reasons, some people believe that the Green Movement is dead. To the Islamic Republic of Iran it is also dead. However, the answer to the question (is the Green Movement dead?) depends on what you consider as the Green Movement. In the limited sense of removing the president and replacing him with some others in the Mousavi-Karoubi gang, it is definitely dead. However, the Green Movement, as a stage in the struggle of the Iranian people for democracy, rule of law and human rights, is still alive. It is enough that the ruling regime relaxes its violent repression, to see the widespread support for the Green Movement in all its forms. The majority of Iranians are dissatisfied with the ruling regime and its strict religious ideology. The pressures of a corrupt and sick economy along with the implications of international sanctions have created a potentially dangerous situation in Iran. The high inflation rate, the rising costs of utilities, and unemployment are fertile grounds for the sudden start of the public demands for extensive reforms and even change of the regime at any minute. The Islamic regime’s leaders are worried that the internal dissatisfaction and dissent may find a way to connect with the external forces and open a way for the toppling the entire regime. The Green Movement in the sense of a link in the chain of Iranians’ quest for democracy is alive, and it may emerge at any time with a similar or different color and name.
