This commentary is in response to the must-read article by Jim Kavanagh, “Aftermath: The Iran War after the Soleimani Assassination”, which ends as follows:
This is the war that, as the NYT reports, “Hawks in Israel and America have spent more than a decade agitating for.” It will start, upon some pretext, with a full-scale U.S. air attack on Iran, followed by Iranian and allied attacks on U.S. forces and allies in the region, including Israel, and then an Israeli nuclear attack on Iran—which they think will end it. It is an incomprehensible disaster. And it’s becoming almost impossible to avoid.
The best prospect for stopping it would be for Iran and Russia to enter into a mutual defense treaty right now. But that’s not going to happen. Neither Russia nor China is going to fight for Iran. Why would they? They will sit back and watch the war destroy Iran, Israel, and the United States.
If decision-makers in Iran reach the same conclusion as outlined in the above excerpt the question they would have to deal with is, “How should Iran respond?”
So far Iran’s strategy seems to be the targeting of American forces in the region and closing down the Straits of Hormuz, which only will result in greater retaliation and a “cost” that has already been taken into account by the warmongers.
The following is the more appropriate response if Iran concludes that its destruction is imminent. And this response needs to take place within the first hour if not minutes of the US “air campaign”.
Destruction of all desalination plants in the Persian Gulf used by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE.
Sinking of any aircraft carriers within range of Iranian missiles.
Targeting of ALL oil installations within missile range, this would include non-Arab installations.
After the above targets have been taken care of all remaining missiles in and outside of Iran should rain down on Israeli military sites, including its nuclear-related facilities.
The above essentially is Iran’s deterrence or amounts to MAD, mutually assured destruction. It amounts to a far greater deterrence than any nuclear weapon Iran is supposed to be intending to make.
Iran does not need Russian or Chinese military support and is able to defend itself.
The question is will the warmongers in Washington and Israel take the risk of plunging the entire global economy into a two-year dark abyss?
Decades of war and chaos in the Middle East have financially benefited the arms industry, as well as the large oil companies and Wall Street. If they assume attacking Iran will continue the bloody gravy train they have been riding will stay on its tracks they need to go back and take another look at their cost-benefit analysis because Iranians will hit back where it hurts.
Madness requires a MAD response.
The ONLY path is negotiating a settlement of ALL problems between Iran and the USA so that lasting peace can be established. However, this path is not profitable for the usual suspects.