FG

Thanks, Obama for a clever, perfectly timed move.

Obama stuck to his policy of giving humanitarian aid and technical assistance to the resistance.  As promised, he has NOT given them weapons, just a bushelful of money for "supplies."

The weapons were bought, NOT GIVEN, to the opposition.  The weapons aren't even American.  They are (sweet irony) Russian made. 

Guess who played a major role in the Libyan deal?  Guess who assisted in shipping them and in training the FSA how to use them?  

This lovely surprise pops up just when the GOP and many Syrians had been complaining "The USA is as bad as Russia for not helping us."  Obama, like LIncoln in the Civil War, had to operate in a tough snippish political environment where an economic crisis, war weariness and an upcoming election placed limits on what he could do.  He managed to pull this off without breaking the bank or producing more American casualties.

As to complaints by military and strategic illiterates (Ayatoilet) that "we should have done it earlier" I can't see how the timing could have been more perfect. Necessary conditions have been met and the regime is caught in its most vulnerable position.  What else can you ask for?

--The move required that Assad begin used air power against the resisistance. Having done so--and only in the past month--he justified assistance on humanitarian grounds.  

--Assad's move up to Assad has placed him in a highly vulnerable position unless he can win before these weapons counter his air attacks. .

--The FSA had to be strong enough to exploit such an opportunity. It has come a long way in the last six weeks. 

--Essential vetting of possibe FSA trainees had to be completed before any training.  The latter should take only a week or so.   To ignore the risk of such weapons following into the hands of extreme Islamists would have been unthinkable and political suicide after 9/11.  

What good would such weapons have done just two months ago except to give the regime leisurely time to prepare counteraction?  

Why Assad can't last long if his air power is nullified

Assad must attack Aleppo soon or he may not be able to do so at all if this report is correct.   

Theoretically the regime can continue to stay outside cities and towns and pound away but it can't win a single battle that way.   The resistance can hold the city while besieging forces shrink away and the opposition runs rampant elsewhere in the country.   Imagine the demoralizing impact of a long purposeless siege on remaining troops.

Assad may begin to lose lots of tanks and artillery.  Fear of his air power is all has kept many armored troops from defecting and taking their equipment along.   Once a few defect, more will follow and the news will induce a sense of doom in those who remain. As less is available to pound the city more is available to pound the besiegers who will eventually get cut off from the South unless they retreat.  If his forces wait too long to do that, they may shrink away like Napoleon's army on the road back from Moscow. 

One serious effect of being cut off is a reduced abiity to fight due to any inability to replace lost or expended equipment, fuel and food.  In a board war game, this effect is usually factored in by reducing the combat and movement ability of the surrounded units by 50 percent.