Bashar al-Assad [1]'s military machine is on the brink of logistical meltdown and collapse, because it lacks petrol and food, and is having problems resupplying its soldiers, according to a Syrian general who has defected to the opposition.
Much has been made of the Syrian military's supposed superiority over the opposition, but General Mohammad Al-Zobi told the Guardian: "The benzine is nearly finished. They are running out of rockets. There is scarcely any bread or water for the soldiers."
Zobi defected two months ago alongside his air force colleague General Saed Shawamra. They slipped out from Tiftanaz airbase in the middle of the night. From the city of Idlib they crept across the border to Turkey. On Wednesday they crossed back into Syria [2], their mission now to finish off the revolution against Assad.
The men, from Dera'a province, are among around 100 senior military commanders who have joined Syria's rebels, appalled – they say – by Assad's brutal war against his own population. According to Zobi, the embattled Syrian regime can last "one or two months at most". "After that Assad wi... >>>
I've tried to limit my posting here to news items or analysis I see as exceptionally important. This story surely qualifies. It is gets credibility from something else I read about a few days ago: A Syrian army unit was forced to abandon a stronghold because it ran out of food, apparently several days earlier, had the troops were too hungry to stay. Imagine that!
Yes, Assad's supply lines are hard to sustain. The rear echelons of troops on the way to Aleppo have suffered a number of attacks. Supposedly, one regiime column headed for Aleppo was forced to retreat by attacks before it got there. That needs further confirmat111ion, however.
Observe how regime's shortages aren't confined to ammo, fuel, food and reliable footsoldiers. It has to be increasigly short on reliable senior who require weeks of training for a regime short on time and who can be trusted to execute defectors rarther than join them. Consider that Assad has lost 100 senior commanders to defections alone and the momentum of defections has increased since Damascus! How many more high officers have been lost to casualties or capture?
Meanwhile James Miller at EA remains skeptical of the regime's ability to carry out its intended massacre of lightly armed FSA forces in Aleppo. As supporting evidence he points to FSA successes in fighting off Assad's (demoralized) forces in so many places elsewhere. They haven't even fully succeeded in Damascus which was supposed to be "a two-day job?" How long has it been now?
Visualize what happens elsewhere if Assad's army gets bogged down in Aleppo and victory is nowhere near as quick as planned? How would morale be effected on both sides? How many Bad Guys will drift off in Aleppo as it goes on? Where Assad sees a major victory which will break the FSA is more likely to break his own forces if not won quickly. I doubt he can do that. This may be what the FSA counts on.
Links:
[1] //www.guardian.co.uk/world/bashar-al-assad
[2] //www.guardian.co.uk/world/syria
