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Doom-and-gloom scenarios raise unjustified alarm

Kyle Saghafi
July 8, 2004

Reply to Nader Habibi's "Departure".

The ideas that you presents in your opinion piece, seems to rest primarily on the premise of sheer pessimism and and one based on hypothetical calculations that are seriously misleading. I gather that being an economist by profession you have a natural tendency to resort to economical assessment in viewing all the world events.

The political tensions that you pointed out in your piece have been a regular occurance in the world history particulary in the recent years, and there is absolutely no reason to be overtly alarmed at the possibilty of such tension to be escalated to the extent that would necessitate making such rash and urgent decisions.

For every political analyst that might predict a doom-and-gloom scenario in the immediate future, there are a few who maintain a completely opposite view, why are we not looking at the full half of our glass? Would it be incredibly wise for anyone to base their decisions on some speculations, when it comes to such vital matters, just as someone would trust a stock-broker's advice on market trends?

I think you are being unrealistically bold and highly theoretical when you propose for the youth to redirect and change their focus and embark up on such fields of study that might not even be within their reach in terms of their academic skills and learning abilities. What of those who could not conveniently change direction and make it into a nearest medical or other professional schools given how fierce the competition is to get accepted?

While it is generally reasonable for a family to have a variety of contingency plans in most unforseen circumstances and emergencies, what you have described is does not quite fit in the context of the real life in this country. Do you really think that every family can set aside the amount you mentioned to accomodate their expenses in a foreign country? And don't you think that many of those wealthy families have made such investments in west and the east?

We constantly hear that our government has gone to the extreme and has spent a great sum of money on improving the various aspects of our country's security system and althought they have not been fully implemented or utilized, it has had a significant impact on redcuing such horrifying events, and there is plenty more on the way.

Basing life decisions and making predictions that might be economically justifiable, on current events are no doubt a very brilliant strategy, but when one brings politics into the mix, that would translate into much more caution that one needs to exercise.

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By Kyle Saghafi



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Lost Wisdom
Rethinking Modernity in Iran
By Abbas Milani
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