|
Ship of fools January 14, 2002 The alleged shipment of arms to the Palestinian Authority (PA) by Iran is a very serious developemnt. We need to look at the likelihood of such an act and question the reasons for it. The Karine-A, a ship owned and operated by the Palestinian Authority evidently reportedly had a cargo containing the following items: 62 Katyusha rockets, with their launchers with a range of 20 kilometers (12 miles) which could have exposed Israeli cities and towns to attack from within the Palestinian-controlled West Bank and Gaza Strip. We are told there were also Katyusha rockets, mortar shells with their launchers, anti-tank missiles and rocket-propelled grenades, among other armaments. As a student of Iran's political culture who has observed the changes in the political/military scenery of the country for the last quarter of a century with much interest, I have my questions -- and doubts -- about this affair. Five years ago I would have had no problem pointing at the Islamic Revolutionary Guards, or the Ministry of Intelligence as the sender of such a cargo. For example we know, according to Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani's own memoirs, that Saeed Emami (a senior intelligence chief, who allegedly committed suicide after his arrest in connection with the chain murders of 1998) had loaded a ship with rockets intended to attack a Mojahedeen Khalgh gathering in Belgium during Rafsanjani's presidency. (The ship and its crew were taken into custody by the Belgian authorities.) But ever since Mohammad Khatami's election, he and his cohorts have exerted a great amount of rationality into the system. There haven't been any serious reports of mischief by "rogue elements" within the Iranian military or the intelligence community in recent years. Moreover, Iran doesn't want to antagonize the U.S. under present circumstances prevailing in the region. There was even a report that the Iranian government was calling back home about 700 Intelligence officers based in Lebanon and elsewhere -- an obvious move to appease America. Fear of a reprisal from the U.S. after 9/11 has strengthened reformists' hand to some extent, giving them a small opportunity to cautiously interact with the U.S. Moreover, Iran is not having warm relations with the PA, and the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has shown his disdain for Arafat by publicly calling him a "fool" and "stupid". Khamenei's disapproves of the peace agreement and wants war to the end. But in a recent conference in Tehran, Tajik, an advisor of President Khatami, showed the fallacy and impracticality of this approach. Tajik observed that while Palestinians themselves are looking for a political settlement, some people in Iran call for "war until victory"! The Revolutionary Guards have lost most of their revolutionary zeal, and have little interest in inciting international trouble. It is mostly because the upper crust of the corps is highly involved in the vast economic endeavors of the organization, while the lower level guards are more or less disillusioned with the revolution. Rhetorics aside, Iranian authorities don't seem to be very interested in fresh adventurism. Iranians have suffered enough doses of violence in the past two decades to realize the realities of the world, and the costs of violence. When the Taliban (or perhaps Pakistani extremists within their ranks) executed nine Iranian diplomats in Mazar-i-Sharif, Iran did nothing except initiate some military mobilization and launch verbal threats. Fear of the spread of the Afghan war into Iran is serious, and it is very much felt on the streets. According to the latest conspiracy theory (spread mostly by Tehran cab drivers!) America has taken Afghanistan to use it as a forward camp in a campaign to undermine the Islamic Republic. In a recent BBC interview in Isfahan, younger Isfahanis expressed similar opinions. The imminence of war makes Iranian authorities very cautious at a time when they are not sure of their own constituency. Nobody will bet on the loyalty of Iranian youth to the government. At such a crucial moment, it would be very foolish of Iran to risk getting involved in the Middle Eastern quagmire in such a blatant way as shipping of weapons to the PA. One cannot say with certainty what is going on inside the seven major Iranian "foundations" that hold billions of dollars in assets. They are immune from public scrutiny. However, the timing of the alleged shipment is very questionable. Iran has not been known for any arms shipments to the PA. Why would Iranian authorities make these illegal shipments at a time when Arafat was under virtual house arrest, and the Israeli army was roaming in the PA territory, and Israeli intelligence was on high alert? One final interesting note: Before news broke about the Karine-A, an Iranian newspaper reported the "hijacking of an of Iranian ship carrying dates on route to Palestine by Israelis" ... Allaho aalam belhaghyeghel omoor -- God knows the truth. Author Rasool Nafisi is the chairman of the Department of General Studies at Strayer University, Washington DC.
 |
|
|
Web design by BTC Consultants
Internet server: Global Publishing Group