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Iran next?
U.S. military attack would prolong the reign of Iran's despotic
rulers
January 30, 2002
The Iranian
Through the bravery of men and women of the US armed forces and the overwhelming
support of the American public, Afghanistan has been liberated from the
claws of a messianic cult. Its honored house guest, the terror boss and
his capos, with worldwide reach, have been evicted from their headquarters
and are on the lam. Awaiting their day of judgment, many of their cadres
are behind bars, and some, in cages.
Music and laughter, children flying kites, going to school and most other
manifestations of a normalcy is slowly but surely coming back to life. There
seems to be a determined effort on the part of the world community to not
abandon the proud Afghans in their struggle to rebuild their devastated
lives.
To achieve this marvelous outcome and, more importantly for the long
term strategic reasons, semi-permanent forward US military bases, with the
tacit approval of Russia, have been established in Kyrgyzstan on the doorsteps
of the emerging superpower, China.
Ever since the disintegration of the Soviet Empire, conventional wisdom
has been that a potential nuclear flash point has moved from Europe to Asia.
The most worrisome being that of the China/Taiwan theater, and to a lesser
degree, India/Pakistan, and in the Korean peninsula.
Iran is in the middle of it all. In addition to her location as the natural,
safe, economical hub for transferring energy from the Caucasus to the West
and Japan, Iran has a crucial strategic importance.
Recognizing this, China has been making steady inroads into Iran, establishing
a firm foothold with big ticket projects. Amongst others, Tehran's new metro
system is exclusively of outdated Chinese equipment, consequently, dependent
on a long term Chinese presence. Feasibility studies are being made for
a similar system in Tabriz and Isfahan, both by the Chinese firms.
The municipality of Tabriz, recently announced the signing of a contract
with Chinese construction firms for building 30,000 residential dwellings
and a number of satellite commercial/industrial parks. There is also close
cooperation between the Chinese State Television and the Islamic Republic's
(Larijani Network). So is an extended relationship between the IRI and the
Chinese ship yards and the IRI's railways is phasing in Chinese made engines.
On the military side, the publicly available information is scant, yet
those available speak of extensive cooperation in the rocketry and unconventional
weapons. Only last week, The Bush Administration put two Chinese firms and
an individual Chinese on its sanction list for providing IRI with dual use
equipment and technological know how. It should be noted that the new IRI
ambassador to China is the former head of the official news agency, IRNA,
and a former high official of the Revolutionary Guards.
The number of IRI's select students who are studying applied sciences,
including advanced aerodynamics in Chinese learning institutions, has been
on a steady increase, producing a small Iranian community in China.
Besides China, IRI has been heavily involved with North Korea in developing
its Shahab series of short to medium range ballistic missiles, which are
modeled after the North Korean No-Dong missile system.(Few months ago, the
IRI's chief racketeer was mysteriously found dead in his Tehran office.)
Of the three test firing of the Shahab 3, with the purported range of fifteen
hundred kilometers, only one has been declared a partial success by the
Western observers.
The successful deployment of such delivery system in the arsenal of the
Ayatollahs who have publicly announced, in no uncertain terms, their desire
and firm intention to wipe the State of Israel off the map, is detrimental
to Iranian national interest. As is the recent delivery of the faulty, Chernobyl
model, core reactor from a foundry in the Ukraine to the Bushehr civilian
power plant.
Former employees of the plant have warned of a disaster in the making.
The protective concrete containment dome which requires state of the art
inspection and safeguards, were repeatedly attacked by Iraqi jets during
that country's aggression against Iran. Eyewitnesses have reported shoddy
repair jobs including the use of substandard rebars with the wrong alloy
composition, and simple plugging of the numerous holes made by the fired
ordinances with regular concrete.
The Chernobyl meltdown spewed radioactive fallout as far away as Finland.
As precaution against radioactive leakage, IRI has forcibly resettled surrounding
villages in the radius of thirty kilometers, while there are major population
centers directly in harms way on both sides of the Persian Gulf.
The 23-year reign of the Ayatollahs has been a resounding failure in
every imaginable aspect. On the anniversary of that inauspicious occasion,
they find themselves isolated internationally and despised internally. Hoping
for a respite from the increasingly emboldened public, per wagging the tail
strategy, they have been egging on their adversaries, at times quite transparently,
to instigate a military attack against Iran.
Western powers should keep in mind that any military action against Iran,
would be playing into the hands of the desperate despots and would only
prolong their disastrous rule. The Iranian people are ready, able and willing
to take charge of their own destiny. Vocal support, disclosure of overseas
booty of the IRI clan, tightening of the sanctions and a clear policy statement
on post-IR Iran, would suffice. An independent, Democratic Iran, is a vital
ally in confronting the lurking crisis.
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