I've always been dubious about Barack Obama's offer to negotiate with Iran — not because I didn't believe that it was the right strategy, but because I didn't believe we had enough leverage to succeed. And negotiating in the Middle East without leverage is like playing baseball without a bat.
Well, if Obama does win the presidency, my gut tells me that he's going to get a chance to negotiate with the Iranians — with a bat in his hand.
Have you seen the reports that Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is suffering from exhaustion? It's probably because he is not sleeping at night. I know why. Watching oil prices fall from $147 a barrel to $57 is not like counting sheep. It's the kind of thing that gives an Iranian autocrat bad dreams.
After all, it was the collapse of global oil prices in the early 1990s that brought down the Soviet Union. And Iran today is looking very Soviet to me.
As Vladimir Mau, president of Russia's Academy of National Economy, pointed out to me, it was the long period of high oil prices followed by sharply lower oil prices that killed the Soviet Union. The spike in oil prices in the 1970s deluded the Kremlin into overextending subsidies at home and invading Afghanistan abroad — and then the collapse in prices in the '80s helped bring down that overextended empire.
(Incidentally, this was exactly what happened to the shah of Iran: 1) Sudden surge in oil prices. 2) Delusions of grandeur. 3) Sudden contraction of oil prices. 4) Dramatic downfall. 5) You're toast.)
Under Ahmadinejad, Iran's mullahs have gone on a domestic subsidy binge — using oil money to cushion the prices of food, gasoline, mortgages and to create jobs — to buy off the Iranian people. But the one thing Ahmadinejad couldn't buy was real economic growth. Iran today has 30 percent inflation, 11 percent unemployment and huge underemployment with thousands of young college grads, engineers and architects selling pizzas and driving taxis. And now with oil prices falling, Iran — just like the Soviet Union — is going to have to pull back spending across the board. Fasten your seat belts.
The U.N. has imposed three rounds of sanctions against Iran since Ahmadinejad took office in 2005 because of Iran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment. But high oil prices minimized those sanctions; collapsing oil prices will now magnify those sanctions. If prices stay low, there is a good chance Iran will be open to negotiating over its nuclear program with the next U.S. president.
That is a good thing because Iran also funds Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and the anti-U.S. Shiites in Iraq. If America wants to get out of Iraq and leave behind a decent outcome, plus break the deadlocks in Lebanon and Israel-Palestine, it needs to end the cold war with Iran. Possible? I don't know, but the collapse of oil prices should give us a shot.
But let's use our leverage smartly and not exaggerate Iran's strength. Just as I believe that we should drop the reward for the capture of Osama bin Laden — from $50 million to one penny, plus an autographed picture of Dick Cheney — we need to deflate the Iranian mullahs as well. Let them chase us.
Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, compares it to bargaining for a Persian carpet in Tehran. "When you go inside the carpet shop, the first thing you are supposed to do is feign disinterest," he explains. "The last thing you want to suggest is 'We are not leaving without that carpet.' 'Well,' the dealer will say, 'if you feel so strongly about it ...' "
The other lesson from the carpet bazaar, says Sadjadpour, "is that there is never a price tag on any carpet. The dealer is not looking for a fixed price, but the highest price he can get — and the Iran price is constantly fluctuating depending on the price of oil." Let's now use that to our advantage.
Barack Hussein Obama would present another challenge for Iran's mullahs. Their whole rationale for being is that they are resisting a hegemonic American power that wants to keep everyone down. Suddenly, next week, Iranians may look up and see that the country their leaders call "The Great Satan" has just elected "a guy whose middle name is the central figure in Shiite Islam — Hussein — and whose last name — Obama — when transliterated into Farsi, means 'He is with us,' " said Sadjadpour.
Iran is ripe for deflating. Its power was inflated by the price of oil and the popularity of its leader, who was cheered simply because he was willing to poke America with a stick. But as a real nation-building enterprise, the Islamic Revolution in Iran has been an abject failure.
"When you ask young Arabs which leaders in the region they most admire," said Sadjadpour, they will usually answer the leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. "When you ask them where in the Middle East would you most like to live," he added, "the answer is usually socially open places like Dubai or Beirut. The Islamic Republic of Iran is never in the top 10."
First published in the New York Times.
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احسان نراقی: جامعه شناس و نویسنده ۱۳۰۵-۱۳۹۱ | Dec 02 | |
Nasrin Sotoudeh: Prisoner of the day | 46 days on hunger strike | Dec 01 |
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گوهر عشقی: مادر ستار بهشتی | Nov 30 | |
Abdollah Momeni: Prisoner of the day | Activist denied leave and family visits for 1.5 years | Nov 30 |
محمد کلالی: یکی از حمله کنندگان به سفارت ایران در برلین | Nov 29 | |
Habibollah Golparipour: Prisoner of the day | Kurdish Activist on Death Row | Nov 28 |
Get lost Mr. Friedman, boro baba . . .
by Javadagha on Thu Oct 30, 2008 06:47 AM PDTThis is not the first that Mr. Friedman has written biased articles about Iran. I am glad that many of you wrote about his non-sense. He talked about four UN sanctions against Iran. How many sanctions are against Israel, something like 300! How much one can get biased and/or stupid?
The U.S. is stealing Iraqi oil and undermining many regimes in the region and use fear tactic to control KSA and Bahrain to name a few.
Thanks for those who recognized this idiot’s biases.
To THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
by Faribors Maleknasri M.D. (not verified) on Thu Oct 30, 2008 06:10 AM PDTDear Sir, I have studied your article. I think: with soo much wisehood and knowledge better you ask the Iranian Government for a position as advisor for those 7ty million fanatics down there on persian Gulf? 7ty millin counts the honorable Iranian nation. Why spend all you knowledge for writing only in "IRANIAN" and earn soo little? Once you are in that country you will not be obliged to leak only Mr. Ahmadinejad. all the 7ty Millions wouls stay at your disposal. So please do not hesitate and rich your application, right now. Greeting
Sleepless in Tehran & to buy off the Iranian people??
by Luciferous (not verified) on Thu Oct 30, 2008 06:00 AM PDTThe true iranians are not buyable. This dream was many times dreamed during the History. The youngest history reports: His majesty - the most last Perserking - treid from his zeropoint on - it was 1953 - to buy Iranians. He had chances by a great number of Tude-members. alamuti, his justice minister was member of central commitee of that Partie. also with some liberals he came through. But never with the masses. The honorable iranian nation refused to accept the promises of his majesty 1978 and founded its Islamic republic. it is a wrong interepretation to think the Government of islamic republic of iran wanted to buy any body, Iranians do not pay for any thing. Least for - for example - buyable politicians. A small group, i mean the "IRANIAN"s, would just love to bought by Iranians. But there is no chance. They do not pay a cent and if somebody offers cooperation must pay first. The islamic republic of iran is the mightiest state on the Gulf. The economy of that country does not depend on Oil preis. However the oil production is reduced allready. The preis reduction of oil products is a try of westerns to rescue themselves. Europians are the most damaged. The islamic republic of Iran is not damaged att all through the disusterous economical situation in the westerns country. Greeting
Typicl Friedman stuff
by Anonymous-today (not verified) on Thu Oct 30, 2008 05:32 AM PDTNo one is as arrogant as Friedman when it comes to "understanding" Middle East. He has all the answers of course, has made a very handsome career from repeating warmed over notions and half baked facts. Lobbied hard for invasion of Iraq with the same reasoning: Young Arabs are dying to have an American life style, they're dying to be like Brittany Spears, etc. Middle classes are dying to be American. Democracy in Iraq will usher utopia everywhere. It's an extremely narrow and patronizing attitude. Idealism (right or wrong) seems to be a property of the Jewish state. Arabs, Iranians and Muslims are corrupt, can’t wait to sell their ass in the open market. They are irrational and still act as if in a bazzar. You can smell the orientalist stench of it from a mile. The mullas are shrewd politicians and must be taken seriously. Just take the way they have out manoeuvred the West on the nuclear issue for the last 2 years. The fact is that Iran's economy was strained before the oil price bubble. Not sure if Iranians were counting too much on the petrodollar supremacy, the way guys like Friedman have been talking up Russia and say Venezuela. And as Hooman Majid mentions in his rebuttal in Huffington Post, the Iranian leadership is positively buoyant because of what they perceives as the decline of American power. If I were Friedman I'd be much more worried of losing my negotiating leverage because of what is happening now in the US and Western Europe's economy and how it is perceived everywhere else. And one last thing. Obama's middle name (Hussein) carries as much weight as Saddam's last name (also Hussein) did for the 8 bloody years of war between Iraq and Iran: Zilch. Please, please, when would Americans start to truly understand Iran and rely less on these clichés flaunted by second-rate hacks like Friedman and Sajjadpour. For the sake of their own interests at least.
Friedmn
by Kurush (not verified) on Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:55 PM PDTMr Friedman is getting the same treatment here that he is getting at America's Pravda, i.e. The NYTimes. We have not forgotten the Jewish gang that lied to inveigle America into the Iraq War, Friedman himself, his pal Henry Kissinger, Wolfowitz, and of course the entrenched tentacles of the AIPAC. The J gang ganged up with the good ol' Dixiecrates, Trent Lott, Jesse Helms, Lindsay Graham, dreaming of a white supremacist American Reich ruled by the boy-with-silver-spoon-in-his-mouth. Alas it was not to be!
I would not glorify Friedamn by calling him a hack, since even a hack observes some ethical guidlines and principles of decency.. The machivallian world in which Friedman resides is condusive to and consorts well with the rapture crowd.
It was Friedman, in the 90's when oil prices were way low, who declared that in the dotcom era oil has become irrelevant! It has come to pass, much to Friedman's chagrin, that the dotcome world exists in abeyance now while oil is the king of the road.
Oh by the way Mr Friedman, a historical lesson. The Russians dealt with Americans the same way they dealt with the Tartars. When the Russians defied the Tartar suzerainty, the latter massed its army aginst the Russians. For days the two warring camps looked at each other across the divide, neither side making a move waiting for the other to make a move. Then suddenly the Tartars and the Russians decamped and moved away. They both realized that they could not bear to be the loser and decided against a fight.
The Russians of course emerged in the long run as the winners. Is this not what happened at the end of the Cold War, with both sides decamping fearing to be the loser? In my view Russians will emerge victorious in the long haul. Why? America still lives in the Antebellum south master/slave mindset. A race war is inevitble in America. Voila
So many toudehi or
by shameoniri (not verified) on Wed Oct 29, 2008 11:44 PM PDTSo many toudehi or ex-toudehi and Islamofascists on this site. It's pathetic. Haven't you morons done enough damage to Iran?
Sardari: Can you elaborate how "your country" is to the zionists???
That's all we need
by davood_Sardari on Wed Oct 29, 2008 10:18 PM PDTAnother Zionist trying to tell us how our country is. Thanks but no thanks. Didn't he try to sell us the Iraq war, and later on tell us it was about regime change all a long?
Karim Sadjadpour may be well educated but he was born and raised in the U.S. and he views Iran through colonial tinted glasses. To be an expert on Iran you have to espouse rhetoric which is in conformity with the western neo-liberal zionist sponsored discourse on Iran, otherwise you'll be outcasted.
Good "Read"
by David ET on Wed Oct 29, 2008 09:16 PM PDTI am not too sure if the low oil prices will hold (Just as the high oil prices were not realistic either) but overall lower prices during the rule of Islamic Republic is to the best interest of Iranian PEOPLE.
The excess cash (over and above the government subsidies) does not reach Iranian PEOPLE anyway. So it is best that it would not help prolong the rule of the Mullahs and their mafia .
Secondly high oil price is one of the major causes of worldwide inflations. Iranian PEOPLE who live in a country that relies heavily on imports become the victims of the inflating oil prices especially that wages of Iranians do not get adjusted with inflation. Therefore lower prices help PEOPLE have more money at disposal.
On another note
Ahmadinejad has had mental issues from the beginning and exhaustion is one of the symptoms of an acute psychological. disorder!! From the time he thought he was Mehdi's messenger to when he saw a glow of light around himself at UN to his trips in Iran where he thought he was a Shia Imam by with no plans and authority handing out money and draining the government reserves. To claiming in front of the world that there are no gays in Iran (his prior visit to US ) and then during latest trip to US claiming that there are also no child executions in Iran !
YOU are So Wrong my Jewish friend
by shirazie (not verified) on Wed Oct 29, 2008 08:33 PM PDTIRI does not need oil money to back anti-Israeli stuff. some of their opposition is justified.
the rest of your stuff is correct, Bazaar , inflation, unemployment and w Hussian in the white house - no enemy. what is a Mullah to do now?
May be they will move to the west bank and drive the Israelis. nuts for a while
Arrogant War-Monger, Freidman
by Jaleho on Wed Oct 29, 2008 07:28 PM PDTis having a wet dream of PUSHING another Israeli war on Americans. He thinks since he could use the Israeli mouthpiece, Salzberger's NYTimes to spread lies about Iraq, he can do a redux in Iran!
Friedman and his other Zionist buddies at NYTimes like Judith Miller lied and deceived American people into a war against Iraq. But now, the failure of AIPAC to shove an Iran war on Americans has made Freidman delusional to distort the facts. He says:
"After all, it was the collapse of global oil prices in the early 1990s that brought down the Soviet Union. And Iran today is looking very Soviet to me."
Actually, it was the "Afghanistan quagmire" that was the final blow to a Soviet Empire which was already broken by cold war and years of arms competition with the US. To Iranians, the "Iraq and Afghanistan quagmires" of the over-stretched American Empire is making US look a bit Soviet today.
Mr. Friedman forgets that some factors have changed since he manged to lie US into a war.
First, people can't be fooled by the same crew and similar lies before they forget the damage done to them by the earlier set of lies! Friedman knows that people are tired of his typical platitudes, so he borrows "bazaar bargain" vernacular from an Iranian journalist, Karim Sadjadpour, who thinks all Iranians "sell" as easily as himself!
Second, all the "Color Revolution" that US and your buddy Mr. Soros loved so much are losing their colors and much huger sums are needed to keep those installed lackeyes than the paltry money spent to install them. So, the commodity bubble burst for example has done more harm to your Ukraine lackey who is going bankrupt (over steel) and you need $billions to keep him afloat. Add that to the misfortune of Saakashvili in Georgia, and you'll find out that the party that is really WEAK in the region for bargain is US, not Iran. Unless you want to give back everything to Russia to get them on board with more pressure on Iran.
Finally, Israel has become too costly a liability for the US, and Americans can not AFFORD to carry Israeli wars for you any more Mr. Friedman. So, stop dreaming. You are the one who should sleep-less.
The one who writes for NY Times
by Jeesh Daram on Sun Nov 02, 2008 04:53 PM PSTIf Thomas Freidman was a free thinker, I'd voted Republican.
...Farideh Farhi, an expert
by anti-tazi (not verified) on Wed Oct 29, 2008 05:53 PM PDT...Farideh Farhi, an expert on Iranian politics at the University of Hawaii, notes that Iran's economic troubles under President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad--surging inflation and unemployment, for instance--were already factoring into the 2009 presidential race. Now with declining oil prices and larger than expected budget deficits, "talks of Ahmadinejad's wrong-headed policies as well as incompetence are bound to intensify." Raghida Dergham, senior diplomatic correspondent for London-based Al-Hayat, writes that the oil price hike will lead to much soul-searching inside Iran on the nuclear program as well as its regional ambitions.
Yet many Iran analysts say it will take more than low oil prices for Tehran to alter policies deemed counter to Western interests. Indeed, some experts are already calling for tough action from the next U.S. president. A new report from the Bipartisan Policy Center on American policy (PDF) toward Iran's nuclear program says the incoming administration should consider a blockade on Iranian gasoline imports or, if needed, a block of its oil exports to "spark further social discontent and political upheaval." Other Iran experts say what is needed are sweeter carrots and bigger sticks; one possible solution would be to allow Iran to pursue limited enrichment of uranium under enhanced international monitoring. But as experts blogging at CFR.org warn, even this strategy has limitations."
//www.cfr.org/publication/17626/with_oil_down...
Travel channel
by Anonymouss (not verified) on Wed Oct 29, 2008 05:28 PM PDTAccording to the Travel Channel news Iran is the most boring place for any tourist to visit.
Nobody Beats Me nobody...
by Abol Danesh, Ph.D. (not verified) on Wed Oct 29, 2008 05:21 PM PDT...The prices are falling down to make sure all the thrillion dollar investment Pickens has made in the farm wind energy industry will go down the toilet...and once down then begin to jack up the prices again...
This is called financial assasination at blank pint.
"I am oil! Nobody beats me! Nobody!"
The last paragraph of this article is very interesting
by Parthian on Wed Oct 29, 2008 05:03 PM PDT"...young arabs would not list Iran in top 10 for living.." which brings me to another important point about the Middle Eastern cultures, lots of empty talks and bullshit goes a long long way. Unlike America, this is not just practiced at the highest of political levels, but among ordinary citizens. Those ignorant arab and Iranian youths love to talk big, i.e. nuclear power is the pride, but at the very first chance, they would be dancing their ass off in a club in NYC.
The hypocricy extends to the islamist intellectuals (what an oxymoron), and the bazari types who are all over United states. They talk about the achievements of the revolution, and the great advancement, yet all their immediate families are living, and going to school in the Western countries. There are plenty of them on this site, worse thing about it is they want to turn U.S into another Iran or some third world socialist country. At every turn, they attack the United States. Just as they took those scholarships from Shah, and in the most ungrateful manner overthrew his regime, they would love to do the same to United States. Where would they go next I wonder?
2009 or 2010
by Mort Gilani on Wed Oct 29, 2008 04:51 PM PDTI enjoyed reading this article. I am glad Mr.Friedman publish his work here as I think non-Iranians provide a better analysis of present situation in Iran. Who came up with 13% unemployment in Iran though ; I thought the number was like 25%.
Let's see if Islamic Repulic survives 2009. I think not.
It's My Hope
by Kaveh Nouraee on Wed Oct 29, 2008 04:10 PM PDTthat oil prices continue to drop through the floor.
Very little if any of the oil profits have been used for the benefit of either the country or the people. The overwhelming majority of the money has ended up in the Swiss bank accounts of the members of the IRI. Accounts with balances so high the monarchy looks like a bunch of welfare recipients by comparison.
If this trend is to continue, maybe it will be enough of a motivating factor to generate another revolt. After all, it seems that Iran goes through some major crisis every 30 years or so, so it's about time.
things are worse
by anti-khanoomzadeh (not verified) on Wed Oct 29, 2008 03:32 PM PDT..."However, any advances made by Iran in the imperialist chess game belie a profound political and economic crisis facing the Islamic Republic, and Iran’s robust stance particularly in relation to the nuclear enrichment dispute, is driven in substantial measure by the need of the Ahmadinejad leadership to rally domestic support amongst an increasingly disaffected population. Ahmadinejad was elected on a populist platform promising the re-distribution of oil revenues to the working class. Unsurprisingly, the reverse has happened and, whilst GDP per capita shows a modest growth, Iran is no exception to the global trend for a widening gap between rich and poor. Reliable statistics are difficult to come by but official unemployment figures are in the region of 12%. This is a conservative estimate and the real figure is more likely to be around 20% and even up to 50% for youth unemployment. Inflation is high at 13.6% according to the Iranian Central Bank, or 23.4%, according to the Majlis (Iranian Parliament) Research Centre. The IMF estimates the figure to be around 17%. The economy is heavily dependent on the revenue from oil production, without which it would probably be in free fall.
The conditions of life for workers are deteriorating. Some have not been paid for months, tens of thousands have been laid off and, at a conservative estimate, some 12 million people (around 20% of the population) are living below the poverty line..."
I loved Hooman's rebuttal. The carpet bazaar analogy was dumb
by I Have a Crush on Alex Trebek on Wed Oct 29, 2008 03:31 PM PDTTommy Friedman is right about going green and moving away from oil dependency, but throwing Ahmadinejad under the bus to promote that didn't work in that article. I was stunned that he wrote so much crap in one column. Ahmadinejad's sleep is related to oil? It might be a political stunt, but seriously man! I also like what Hooman said about Arabs not wanting to live in Iran. So what? DUH DUH DUH DUH. Way to go Hooman. I just hope Friedman reads your piece and that MAYBE NY times publishes some letters although they think Friedman is the second coming of Jesus Christ sometimes.
Is that his scathing so
by rebuttle. (not verified) on Wed Oct 29, 2008 03:22 PM PDTIs that his scathing so called rebuttle.lol
Isn't Hooman Majd son of an ayatollah??
... and
by Princess on Wed Oct 29, 2008 02:52 PM PDTHooman Majd's rebuttal: Sleepy in Washington
//www.huffingtonpost.com/hooman-majd/sleepy-in-washington_b_138866.html
Enjoy!