Misc

MRX1

I agree with some of your points. IRR is now a military dictaorship. It cannot be brought down by simple protests as long as the basiji are loyal to the regime. They will be loyal as long as they are getting paid. The key is to disrupt the money flow. 

The IRR just like USSR and Apartheid can be brought down best using economics. What should the world i.e. the West do? Your points  "2" and "3" below are pretty uncontroversial. They should be implemented immediately.

2) You need an international support to freeze the money that comes out of Iran.

3) You need a complete ban of travel for regimes principal  subject to arrest and going to prison once they set foot out of Iran to be send to hague to be tried for crimes against humanity.

The other points will result in pain to the population. Military attacks are not a good idea. Unless the regime is wholesale mass murdering people military strikes are going to be very unpopular. 

22 bahman

با از کار افتادن سایت اینترنتی ، قطع دسترسی کاربران ایرانی به ای میل و مسنجر و اعمال محدودیت بر کار خبرنگاران داخلی و خارجی در ایران، کار خبررسانی از این کشور مختل شده است.

I just got off the phone from Tehran and was told that there are millions of anti goverment protesterts out there. The internet is virtually down and you can not get videos out, so it might take a while before they can get all the videos out on the net. Regular people's internets are all down

22 bahman

با از کار افتادن سایت اینترنتی ، قطع دسترسی کاربران ایرانی به ای میل و مسنجر و اعمال محدودیت بر کار خبرنگاران داخلی و خارجی در ایران، کار خبررسانی از این کشور مختل شده است.

I just got off the phone from Tehran and was told that there are millions of anti goverment protesterts out there. The internet is virtually down and you can not get videos out, so it might take a while before they can get all the videos out on the net. Regular people's internets are all down

22 bahman

با از کار افتادن سایت اینترنتی ، قطع دسترسی کاربران ایرانی به ای میل و مسنجر و اعمال محدودیت بر کار خبرنگاران داخلی و خارجی در ایران، کار خبررسانی از این کشور مختل شده است.

I just got off the phone from Tehran and was told that there are millions of anti goverment protesterts out there. The internet is virtually down and you can not get videos out, so it might take a while before they can get all the videos out on the net. Regular people's internets are all down

...

They say the problem was that they could not able gather in one place because the security forces were very violent. Poeple got scared. There were paint ball attacks on protesters, and they may have thought they were dangerous bullets. With all the dire news of deaths and stuff I am surprised at how brave people HAVE been.

22 bahman

با از کار افتادن سایت اینترنتی ، قطع دسترسی کاربران ایرانی به ای میل و مسنجر و اعمال محدودیت بر کار خبرنگاران داخلی و خارجی در ایران، کار خبررسانی از این کشور مختل شده است.

I just got off the phone from Tehran and was told that there are millions of anti goverment protesterts out there. The internet is virtually down and you can not get videos out, so it might take a while before they can get all the videos out on the net. Regular people's internets are all down .

Ghalam-doon: I apologize

I misread your comment, and for that I am sorry. I mistakenly lumped you with a bona fide IRI groupie, alirezag12. I agree with you that today's events definitely appear to be a setback, perhaps even a major one. The protest movement has weaknesses, no doubt about it (but justice is on its side, IMHO). Time will tell. I had read another "Green" blogger who had mentioned in a post a few days ago that that her friends and relatives in Iran were going to do just what you stated, i.e. go to Shomal. I actually agree with you that the IRI's predicted demise is way, way too premature. Overthrowing a dictatorial regime is not an easy thing to do--that's why it happens so infrequently (look at the experience of the Arab world, for Christ's sake). The Shah was in power for 38 years (the 31-year mark for him would have been 1972--even before the oil boom. Who could have predicted his downfall at that time?). I don't know if the IRI will fall anytime soon; I think it certainly has years of life left in it, but I think it's years and not decades. Again, I don't know if it will collapse, but I know that it should and deserves to; this is the most violent and repressive regime in Iran's recent history. Iranians deserve better than this.

This isn't a surprise

Given the heavy presence of basiji and other IRR forces this is in no way a surprise. People have to be ready and willing to die in large numbers. Going unarmed against armed soldiers is not a picnic.  In addition this event was well publicized and IRR was ready for it. The fact that IRR has  to deploy such numbers of troops was itself indicative. From now on they are going to have to deploy this sort of security on every occasion You can keep the lid on boiling water for so long. It will pop and the longer you keep the lid the harder it pops. 

As more sanctions are put on and the screws tightened IRR will feel the pain. It may be able to keep a Cuba style dictatorship for a while. But it is getting increasingly isolated. AN may be happy with his nuclear toys but people want jobs and prosperity. That is what IRR cannot offer. It will be economics that will bring down the IRR as it did with USSR.

The issue is

you can not get rid of IRR and for that matter any despotic system governed by psychos who get their decree from god or hidden imam with peacfull demonstrations, painting everything green, drawing posters, throwing eggs and so on.....

1) You need complete disruption in the  oil  sector. No oil means no money and there for no guns for goons in charge.  no petrol for thugs to run around with their bikes and cars. System has to become paralyzed.

2) You need an international support to freeze the money that comes out of Iran.

3) You need a complete ban of travel for regimes principal  subject to arrest and going to prison once they set foot out of Iran to be send to hague to be tried for crimes against humanity.

4) Blockade of persian gulf.  The only thing getting through to IRR will be food and medicence.That can easily be achived by U.S and Nato forces.

5) Last but not least, combination of surgical strike + guns + bombs to kill some of these basterds. There is NO PEACEFULL and easy of way out of this. Blood has to be shed and it better be theirs than yours.

Any other way is not productive and to some extent waste of time.

FYI/Video Showing woman Beaten (Feb 11th 2010)

Here from Moussavi's website :

//www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=107608539255933&ref=mf

AMIR1973

You want to call people like me who are disappointed as hell with this very low turnout "IRI groupies", be my guest. Name calling wont heal this wound. This was a great opportunity that we missed. By "we", I mean people like you and I who sit in front of the computer and in the comfort of our houses and wait for others to do our "job." People who decided to go to Shomal since they needed the "escape" and did not realize the importance of this day.

To ghalam-doon, alireza, and other IRI groupies in decadent West

"The demise of this regime is also greatly exaggerated!"

I'll have to remember that the next time I hear one of the IRI thugs-in-charge predicting the demise of Israel (which has been around precisely twice as long as the basket case of the Persian Gulf, aka the Rapist Republic). Furthermore, Mammad Reza Pahlavi sat on the throne for 38 years. How long have the tinpot dictatorships in Egypt and Syria been in power? Again, longer than the Rapist Republic. The survival of dictatorships rests on coercion, intimidation, repression, and bribery--not on their popularity or legitimacy, of which the Rapist Republic has very little. So yes, predictions of IRI's demise are much, much too premature, but the medium- and long-term prospects don't look so good for a murdering, torturing, and raping regime with a weak economy, a dissatisfied population, and many foreign adversaries.   

Regardless...

Regardless... Mr Alireza,

You should go ahead and plan a short holiday to Venezuela;

Just in case this "pathetic" cry for freedom and justice should become a reality..

Where are the "millions"?

The roads to Shomal were jam-packed. Apparently hundreds of thousand of Tehranis decided to have their own gathering in Shomal. Their motto "baba be-khialesh. kabab bareh ra eshgh ast!"

That's the problem with the middle class. We can't get our priorities straight. As the guy said: "The proletarians have nothing to lose but their chains." But we will never be at that point. We have our escapes, a trip to Shomal or Kharej.

Mark Twain once said: " 'The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated."

The demise of this regime is also greatly exaggerated!

Let's review

First they claimed they would win the elections. They lost badly.

Then they claimed they were the true majority, and could overwhelm society with their numbers. They were overwhelmed by security forces & Ahmadinejad supporters.

Then they claimed their numbers could shut down the economy with general strikes. General strikes were virtually nonexistent.

Now they're reduced to tiny pockets of people who chant and upload videos to youtube.

Pathetic.

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