Misc

Too little too late!

Iran on Monday surprised much of the world by agreeing to a nuclear fuel swap with Turkey and Brazil. The deal is similar to one that the US has been pressing Tehran to accept for months – so Washington will be happy with this development, right?

That’s unlikely. From the US point of view, one big problem is that Iran continues to amass more and more low-enriched uranium, and it has begun boosting some of this stockpile to an enrichment level it hasn’t approached before. Thus, an Iran nuclear fuel swap today might constrain the country's nuclear program much less than it would have last October.

“There is less to Iran’s agreement than meets the eye,” writes Jeffrey Lewis, director of the Nuclear Strategy & Nonproliferation Initiative at the New America Foundation, on his blog ArmsControlWonk.com.

IN PICTURES: Who has nukes?

Under Monday’s deal, Iran would ship 1,200 kilograms of its low-enriched uranium to Turkey for safekeeping. In return, it would receive ready-made fuel rods, enriched to a level of 20 percent and capable of powering the Tehran Research Reactor, which Iran says is a crucial source of medical isotopes.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said the deal means Iran has opted for a constructive approach.

“There is no ground left for more sanctions or pressure,” he told reporters in Iran, according to Turkey’s private NTV television.

But the deal has been greeted skeptically by Britain and other European nations, as well as the US, which see it as merely an attempt to delay imposition of further United Nations Security Council sanctions.

“Given Iran’s repeated failure to live up to its own commitments, and the need to address fundamental issues related to Iran’s nuclear program, the United States and international community continue to have serious concerns,” said White House spokesman Robert Gibbs in a written statement issued Monday.

The US and its allies pushed Iran last October to agree to a similar deal. Its purpose then, said officials at the time, was to constrain Iran’s weapons-breakout capability. Last fall, if Iran had shipped 1,200 kilograms of low-enriched uranium out of the country, it would not have been left with enough material to fuel a crash high-enrichment program, if it wanted to race to build a nuclear bomb.

In October, Iran’s total LEU stockpile was about 1,500 kilograms, notes an Institute for Science and International Security analysis of Monday’s announced deal. But Iran’s enrichment centrifuge arrays have continued to run, and now the stockpile is closer to 2,300 kilograms, says ISIS.

“Now, the removal of 1,200 kilograms leaves Iran with a LEU stock that is, or will be so within a few months, large enough to provide a breakout capability,” the ISIS analysis says.

time for iran to support chechens in Russia

I call on Iranian officials to show the Russians just how weak they are....

its time to activate Plan B....open the pipeline to the Chechens and let the Russians know their place!!

Nuking Washington's Iran sanctions

"And while the US and Israel have been making the most noise regarding Iran's nuclear programme, its no longer up to them and their European allies to decide whether Tehran will satisfy its international commitments...

Meanwhile, it's hard to see how the US and its European allies could  pass any new resolution in light of this week's developments.

Brazil and Turkey are working in a new international climate where the West can no longer dictate sanctions. And they know it.

With the US heavy military deployment in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Europe consumed by its economic crisis, Brazilian and Turkish diplomacy
should only be welcomed and encouraged."

link

I think Fooladi is spot

I think Fooladi and Bavafa are  spot on... There  will be another excuse by the US because the West has finally decided to put its expired asset on the shelf. The IRI will go on with its nuclear program and will perhaps even weaponize a nuclear warhead or two by the end game is the containment, sanctions, and "nuclear Umbrellas", which will considerably weaken and restrict IRI's manuvaribility in the region. With or Without nuclear, IRI's usefulness has expired.

Turkey

are not cheap at $18.5bn to buy time for IR. wonder what Brazil got?

This so called agreement is for 1200 Kg of LEU & not 75% of IR's present stockpile of LEU. In october 75% was 1200 Kg.

Since October, IR has added another 750 Kg of LEU to its stockpile. meaning IR will continue to possess around 1200 Kg of LEU, which is the minimum for a weapons programme.

I give this deal about a month

Before IRI backs down for some other bogus reason. Everyone knows that they are jusy buying time.

Nofear:

Don't hold your breath that the unreasonable demand will stop now. In fact I would not be surprised to see the unreasonableness finds a new height and they reject this deal if for no other reason, to diminish Brazil influence and power. The West, US in particular, is already very wary of Brazil regional power in Latin America would see as a threat to its influence regionally and globally.

Mehrdad

Interesting developements

While we all knew that Iran would eventually accept a nuclear material swap with another country , no one could have guessed that this announcement would come at a time when Russia and China were becoming sympathetic to US position after an extensive US lobby.

This new developement is a good example of how Iran is countering and outplaying US state department and its head, Mrs. Clinton. Whether Russia or China support the sanctions after these developements remains to be seen , but is very unlikely.

Another importance of this new deal, is how Iran ignored the 5+1 nations and struck this deal with a Non-Aligned country like Brazil. Iran is banking on the whole Non-aligned countries to support its peaceful nuclear energy and to counter 5+1 monopoly on this industry.

I believe this is the correct course of action than to bow down to the 5+1 unreasonable demands and becoming signatory to humiliating additional protocols.

mistrust of Russians and French

One of the main reasons Iran rejected the past October deal was because they have been shafted by Russian and french numerous times before on the contracts.

It is all logical that they will pick two countries that are respected and trusted by both sides.

anything wrong with it? even thought this may be at the dismay of warmongers and necons in the pockets of AIPAC and Israeli hegemony.

A big lost for Ahmaghinejad!

He can't gloat over his nuclear program anymore! Finally, he had to bow in front of Obama!

Vildemose:

Not professing to know all the details, Iran's skepticism was always not trusting the West in that exchange which there are ample ground for that mistrust. To the extend I know and was reported, Iran was ready to swap the enriched Uranium, but in such way that it would guarantee the West would stick to its end of the bargain. There surely can't be any thing wrong with that, although the West never explained why such deal is unacceptable to them which only adds to that mistrust.

With this deal, it seems Iran is willing to go one step further and as you put it, using Turkey as a escrow-holder. This puts the ball firmly in the opposition (5+1) court and we will see if they have any true intention to solve this issue peacefully and justly.

Mehrdad

It's not about if Iran shoud have atomic weapons or atomic energ

y but how to control and rule the people in Middle East. Read the head line: "Iran deal to ship uranium abroad meets skepticism"

//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100517/ap_on_re_eu/iran_nuclear;_ylt=AqwiFRvKVWoQlP2CVGVT_Kus0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNnNDR1bnYyBGFzc2V0A2FwLzIwMTAwNTE3L2lyYW5fbnVjbGVhcgRjY29kZQNtb3N0cG9wdWxhcgRjcG9zAzYEcG9zAzMEcHQDaG9tZV9jb2tlBHNlYwN5bl9oZWFkbGluZV9saXN0BHNsawNpcmFuZGVhbHRvc2g-

"sargord", dont get too excited!

Deal or no deal, the Islamic regime, just like the taliban has well passed it's purpose as far as US foreign policy is concerned. US is now hell bent on terminating it's very last startegic islamic pawn against the communism in the middle east. This fact is well understood by guys like rafsanjani who were the leaders of this so called "revolution" from day dot, but not by the stupid current leadership of the islamic regime and their foreign based "supporters" like you!

Follow the money

I wonder how much bribe and money Sepah pasdaran that runs every show in Iran agreed to give Brazil and Turkey. Neither east nor west, only islamic republic!

 This deal is virtually the

 This deal is virtually the same as the one agreed to by Iran at Geneva last October, on which it promptly reneged. The only difference is that Turkey has been added as a sort of escrow-holder for the Iranian stock of low enriched uranium. Why that change suddenly would make the deal palatable to the hardliners who torpedoed the last such agreement is mysterious.

Probably for this reason, Interfax is reporting (no Web link yet) that sources in the Russian foreign ministry are saying it would be premature for them to comment on the proposed deal. I take that statement to mean that they are suspicious that the Iranians are just playing head games and attempting to blunt the move to new UN sanctions. On May 14, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said that an agreement with Iran was not out of the question and depended on a few basic principles agreed to by those international capitals talking to Iran on the issue. Medvedev said, “The general approaches are invariable, and virtually all countries adhere to them . . . Firstly, Iran’s nuclear program must be peaceful. Secondly, it should be controlled by the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency]. Thirdly, Iran must cooperate with the international community and the IAEA, and in the fourth place, Iran must observe the rules concerning the non-proliferation of nuclear technologies.” Medvedev had also signaled last week that Russia would oppose any military resolution of the crisis with Iran, pushing back against hawks in Israel and the US.

It is possible that the Iranian leadership, especially top cleric Ali Khamenei, were persuaded by interlocutors such as Brazil, Russia, India and China, who warned that in the absence of such an agreement, Iran would increasingly face crippling international sanctions of the sort that virtually destroyed Iraq. These four countries, called BRIC, have emerged as a second tier of world power after the G7 advanced capitalist parliamentary powers of the West plus Japan, led by the US. Brazil and Turkey engaged in intensive last-minute negotiations with Iran.

It would be wise to see this announcement as a preliminary gambit of some sort rather than as a done deal. But President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is correct that if it goes through, it puts the ball in the court of the West, especially of Barack Obama and the United States.

//www.juancole.com/2010/05/iran-announces-bre...

Viva Lula! On the face of

Viva Lula!

On the face of it, this appears to be great news. We'll still have to wait and see how the details are ironed out, and how the US, Russia and France receive it. The ball is now definitely in their court.