VIEW

Re "humour"

It's ironic that supporters of war find a humour in this blog that peace supporters can't! So, it's either an exception to the rule, or shows that warmongers have a keener sense of humour than the peaceniks! Who knew!!!

Islamic republic

Islamic republic obviously has to go. Iran is too great of a nation to have a spider on its flag and the title of Islamic republic before its name. Leave that to countries like Iraq.

Amir jan

Of course, you do realize that Talk is cheap, So much so that people look at it as some national pastime. :))

Yeah.  Let us Reform ourselves. and once we are done with the first round then we should drag our behinds to the start of the line and Do it again and again and again.... Up and down..left and right... Give me a R gimme an E... so on and so forth.

IRI will be reformed over 400 years towards Emam's Golden Era

lead by the sincere reformers Khatami, Mousavi and other loyal followers (to this very day) of Emam. If you think about it, 400 years is a blink of the eye compared to the existence of Planet Earth (over 4 billion years old).

Simorgh555 and other pro-war "Iranians"

In retort to your arguments for a beneficial war:

1.  I agree that the infrastructure doesn't exist for sustainable seceding states in Iran.  But that doesn't mean there wouldn't be civil war.  Do you honestly think that they will think that far ahead?

2.  According to the voting patterns during Khatami's reign and the 6th majles, over 75% of Iranians are in favor of reforms.  Don't confuse that with regime change.  Iranians in Iran don't want another revolution.  Arj is right below claiming that they are too pragmatic to act on emotions alone as in the Arab world.  

3.  Moussavi and Karrubi are honest and sincere in their demands for reforms (read Democracy).  Together with Khatami they are regime insiders that have been reformed through direct experience.  Iran today is host to many Gorbachevs.

4.  The polling of the IRI during Khatami's reign showed that nearly 70% of the IRIG voted for reforms.  Therefore it is very safe to assume that the overwhelming majority of the IRIG and Baseej are pro-reform.

You have to be patient.  Social evolution and Democracy are not overnight events.  It took Europe over 400 years of reformation, renaissance and enlightenment to get where they are today.  Iran will be there and it will be as the 1st Muslim country that will organically have a separation of church and state.  Have no doubt this will happen.  But it takes time.  Just like any living thing undergoes evolution societies undergo evolution.  Iran is in a uniquely advantageous position in contrast to the rest of the Muslim world which is just beginning to experience an amalgamation of church and state (like Turkey, Egypt, Tunisia).  Be patient and prey that Iran is not destroyed before getting to that point.  

BANNER

As it says :Nasre men al-......... 

tavakol be khoda kon piroozi nazdik ast.

with out blood shed.

Maziar

Rastgoo- Military Action WILL work

I apologise if I do not subscribe to your doomsday scenario. In relation to the unrealstic prospect of Iranian separatists breaking from Iran: For any country to formally seek independence under public international law there must be: 

1) a defined territory; 2) a permanent population; 3) a government and 4) a capacity to enter into relations with other states.

Those inside Iran who wish to seek independence are a loud and vociferous minority which does not have the support of the majority of the people in Iran who, depite their regional or ethnic differences are still Iranian people by origin and share the same culture, languiage and geneology of other Iranians.

It would take years, if not decades  for any break-away state whether it be Kurds, Turks or Baluch to receive official recognition from the international world because

1) the territorial boundaries will be in dispute. 

2) there is no viable government. They do not have any organs of government such as separate brances of government

3) there is no civilian infrastructure in place for a functioning state 

3) they have no exchequer or manner by which to collect public funds. They will not be able to borrow any money from the IMF or be granted any loans to develop their emryonic state without collateral or security. 

Alny attempt by separatists to form their own state will also fail because of the economic ties of all regions to the central government in Tehran. Without Tehran the other regions in Iran would not have a pot to piss in and every one knows this. The entire national wealth of the country is located in the Fars province bar Khusetan where the oil refineries are. 

Palestinians, Tamils and even Scots and those from Northern Ireland have fought for decades to claim their own independent states but for the reasons outlined above have failed. It would not have escaped your attention that the Palestinians, depite the overwhelming support of the international community, have finally only received symbolic statehood recognition from UNESCO but failed in their bid to get the Security Council to support them. 

For Kurds to obtain an independent homeland they would have to fight opposition from Turks, Syrians and Iraq and each of them will fight to tooth and nail to ensure this will never happen.

The only threat, and I think you are right about this, is that the UAE or Bahrain wiill try and occupy the islands of Greater and Lesser tumbs which is why any military action must be well thought out and executed.  

Finally, you totally misjudge the potential effectiveness of military action. Had Obama taken the crucial decision to support Iranians either in the sumemr or winter of 2009 by destroying one or two Basij or Sepah outposts then the odds would have been in the favour of the Iranian people on the ground. I did not say destroy all 10,000 targets and, as I have said, without willingness of the Iranian people to mobilise then military action will fail. 

Every one saw the picture of the pathetic Basiji motorcyclist cowering under the protection of an Iranian woman who was shielding him from blows and kicks of Iranians wanting revenge. The tough guy was reduced to a whimpering wreck. Old cliches are true. The biggest bullies are the biggest cowards.  All it takes is for one barack to be detroyed and the normal rank and file Basij will be waving a white flag anf give u[. I am willing to wager on this. As Bill Clinton said recently there is more than one way to skin a cat or skin a Mullah. Who says that military action has to involve carpet bombing? Who says we need a ground invasion? Also target assassinations will work and I have 50 names of IR Terrorists who are begging to be put out of their misery. 

There is no opposition in Iran. Mousavi was a disgusting wretch, fraud and failure of a man who never wanted to change the system and was a fervent follower of Khomeini. Any peaceful opposition is violently challenged and there is no court which will give protection to them and rebuke the government. Eventhe peac movemet in Zimbabwe Morgan Tsvangirai has been more successful than Iran.There are no checks and balances or rule of law.  

Iran is on the way to a demise.  It is on the wy to destruction and despite the risks the arguments against military action are sadly bankrupt just as the IR is. 

It's time for change. It's time for military action. It's time to liberate Iran and with the help of Israel, the patriotic Iranians will liberate Iran.  

Divaneh Jan

They say a minimum of 10% of Iranians support the regime.

Possibly but that does not mean they will not accept another system. It does not mean they will be fighting to death for this regime. 

Are you going to kill them all?

No there is no reason or need to do something as brutal as this. The whole "kill them all" is a really wrong headed argument. Why do people always assume dealing with opposition means killing them? Neither Shah; IRI or most regimes go for killing 10% of the population outright. 

No, most of them will gladly live with a new regime. Just as they lived with Shah before. The trick is to give people rights so they are part of the system. That 10% should be integrated into the political system so their voice is heard. Their better ideas should be listened to and their bad ideas rejected by the Majlis.

By the same token more than 10% despise the present regime. Most of them would deal with it if the regime was not so radical. But now we are past any turning points.

We get nowhere with violence.

Violence is a last resort but it works very well if necessary. There are some times when it is the only  option.

We need to be patient and we need to be consistent with the demands for Human rights and democracy. 

How patient should "we" be and watch the nation slowly die? Sometimes you need to move rather than wait.  

I don't understand the second part. Just sounds like American "motherhood and apple pie". It sounds good but says nothing.

War is not the solution and will just serve to destroy the country.

Yes war is bad however the country is being destroyed now. Besides nobody is going to invade Iran. USA has made it obvious and no one else is able to. The only "war" would be support to an existing movement. 

I am sure Siamak has not

I am sure Siamak has not meant what he says. He is far more intelligent to think like this. It is my view that he just wants to show how some idiots express such views in this website . But here isw what Rastgoo says:

your oversimplified arguments remind me of the "surgical strikes" that were supposed to undo the regime in Iraq.  It will not be like that.  The west has no love for Iran or Iranians.  Their goal is to secure Israel and oil.  They will destroy the decades fought for infrastructure of Iran before even targeting the IRG or the Baseej for the simple reason that Iran should have no retaliatory power left.  According to the US sources there are between 10,000 and 20,000 targets that must be "surgically" destroyed before they can even get to the nuclear sites.  That means anti-aircraft installations, missile depots, power stations, bridges, communication hubs.....The radiation fall out will kill tens of thousands of people.  Iran will be caught in a bloody multi-dimensional separatist movement.  The disputed islands with the UAE will be lost.  The regime will have tens of thousands ready to fight any invading army and for that reason there will be no troops deployed.  End result will be an IRI that is ever more in control, civil war, and widespread destruction.  And have no doubt Iran will target the Persian gulf oil fields and in the act end up losing our refineries and oil wells as well.  They will also target the Israeli nuclear facilities and god only help us so that Israel doesn't retaliate with nuclear weapons against Iran.  Not as simple as you think is it?  You watch too many movies.  Is Iran's complete destruction worth that risk?  You people proposing a war to topple the regime are either naive, callous or ignorant.t it is 

Castrate Islamist criminals

While these are classic syndromes of a society in dire need of involuntary euthanasia for the Islamist segments of the population, the euthanasia laws and practices of the previous centuries have created tremendous embarrassment and were proven self defeating in practice. Perhaps a more humane form of eugenics in post Islamic republic can recommend involuntary castration as a just punishment for Islamic criminals.

Thank you Rastgoo. I hope they get yr points

 Here is what Rastgoo says. Please read it Siamak

Your oversimplified arguments remind me of the "surgical strikes" that were supposed to undo the regime in Iraq.  It will not be like that.  The west has no love for Iran or Iranians.  Their goal is to secure Israel and oil.  They will destroy the decades fought for infrastructure of Iran before even targeting the IRG or the Baseej for the simple reason that Iran should have no retaliatory power left.  According to the US sources there are between 10,000 and 20,000 targets that must be "surgically" destroyed before they can even get to the nuclear sites.  That means anti-aircraft installations, missile depots, power stations, bridges, communication hubs.....The radiation fall out will kill tens of thousands of people.  Iran will be caught in a bloody multi-dimensional separatist movement.  The disputed islands with the UAE will be lost.  The regime will have tens of thousands ready to fight any invading army and for that reason there will be no troops deployed.  End result will be an IRI that is ever more in control, civil war, and widespread destruction.  And have no doubt Iran will target the Persian gulf oil fields and in the act end up losing our refineries and oil wells as well.  They will also target the Israeli nuclear facilities and god only help us so that Israel doesn't retaliate with nuclear weapons against Iran.  Not as simple as you think is it?  You watch too many movies.  Is Iran's complete destruction worth that risk?  You people proposing a war to topple the regime are either naive, callous or ignorant.

   Thank you Rastgoo. I

 Thank you Rastgoo. I just did not know how to tell this to Siamak. I seriously could not imagine him say these. he must have been under the enfluence of illicit drugs. Here is what Rastgoo says:

Siamak, Your cavalier attitude about a war with Iran is both astonishing and offesnive.  To sit in the comfort of USA and suggest that we should bomb Iran is the ultimate definition of a chicken hawk.  I suggest you post your neo-con pro-Israel trash infested comments on AIPAC's web site.  Any intelligent person knows that you cannot impose Democracy by bombs.  It would only lead to the total ruin of Iran.  Just look at Iraq.  That means read and educate your self.  But then again I doubt that you have neither the patience nor the faculty to read anything of substance.

hehe

"uncontrollable sex drive that is triggered by women’s hair"

best :)

Siamack, you wrote a funny, truthful blog.

I laughed my tail off to your truthful, humerus and timely appropriate post. It was so scary that all of the basijis in suit a tie on this side of the world were forced to show their true colors!!!! Yes my friend, their time is up, with or without foreign intervention. 

one other thing

remember that under reza pahlavi, iran had the 5th largest army in the world....and it 'fell' withing 6 months, since the shah left the country....

with all the goons and guns under ali geda's control, I CAN BET that most of these idiots will drop their guns and run, once they feel that the bucket is hitting the fan, they will scram like cockroaches....

I am very hopefull that the end for these bastards is near.......they have wasted 32 years of all of our lives, and the lives of millions of other iranians......time to join your savior in hell boys 

absolutely great writing

thanks, you are absolutely correct....

I loved the line' we have all these idiots in one place...'

I fell off the couch on that one.... 

Take it as a funny piece

Take it as a funny piece that says what a lot of people think but don't dare say -- and it says it funnily just because of that reason. Perhaps I should change the word "think" with "feel" there for you to understand why the "thinking" isn't that precise. This is what a lot of people feel, but don't dare put into words, at least publicly.
I'd also say let's not nit-pick on it now!

diva......

neh jaan thanks for the honest analysis and fair .

Iran and Iranian are already getting close to a wonderful happening

the retards are only the one who is hoping for a war so that they can get to their easy does it road.

 Maziar

Dear Arj:

You did not raise the issue of where SB is, but Rastgoo did. And my comment was not directed at you alone. You mentioned satire, though. Yes, SB's writings are controversial and uses extreme cases to bring his point home. I personally don't see anything wrong with that. As I have said, such writings will not provoke wars. The regime in Tehran is doing its best to provoke one. At best, I see this blog as a wake-up call to Iranians to do something before others bomb the hell out of our country.

Re farcical satire

Dear GR, is what you're struggling to convey as the content of this blog a politer version of "brain fart?" Since you brought up the issue, I have to iterate that I never raised an issue with where the author or anyone else is posting their comments from -- it could be the South Pole as far as I'm concerned (does that include JJ? Or close enough!)! But it's rather the belligerent nature of the comments (not even the rhetoric) that I find demeaning to Iran and Iranians, and find it my right to comment on!

Satire is more than throwing in some serious s**t that involves the fate of an entire nation and hide behind its comical facade! It has to relate to the masses! If this is a comic piece, I can't see the comedy in it (exept in its logic and modes of reasoning), for considering one's own relatives as collateral damage is rather unhuman than faunny! And if it's serious, this is the kind of mentality our country is suffering from, that is some of us think righteous enough to sacrifice other people's lives for their "justified reasons," whether that reason is "god" or "freedom!"

...

Bacheh Shirazi aziz, you've refered to Kurdish currents in Iran as separatist, and as much as I'm sure you didn't mean to, such terminology remains offensive and distortive.

There are two main Kurdish parties in Iran, Democratic Party of Kurdistan and Komala. The former enviosions itself within a democratic Iran, and the latterr is the Kurdistan section of an organization struggling for workers democracy in Iran. In both instances, these are attempts not to divide Iran but to unify and augment it.

Per arming the mass for Armed Struggle against IR and the Insurrectionary side of social struggles, its noteworthy that Komala has been able to arm the population in Kurdestan through taking over Army garrison and depots. In other word taking the arms from the enemy itself. All those sepah and basij garrisons and depots might turnout to be the best source of arms for people after all.

As Majnon mentioned back in '79, it was a split in the armed forces that led to the insurrection. Though it seems we might far from an insurrection against IR, these days, more and more, all it takes is a little spark.

If the spanking inside Majlis is anything it's that these internal fight are getting more vicious.

Right on a money

I have been advocating same thing for thirty some years now, even before these roaches came to power. In fact back then we had less of them since the population of country was half of wht it is now, but its never too late for a good cleansing and enema and god knows our country needs that!

Divaneh Jaan, Dear Arj, Et Al!

You're taking what Siamak has written for its face value. Of course, we want the regime gone and he knows that. But writing controversial stuff is Siamak's one way of reaching his audience. It's like African-American comedians talking about "niggers!" This IS satire. The kind that awakens you to the sad realities of the farcical status quo in Iran. Yes, SB is sits in the comfort of his home or a Starbucks in the US and writes. If that's wrong, then, as mullah lovers say to all of us, sitting in our comfort zone and talking about Iranians back home cannot be taken seriously, either. Where he writes from does not make any difference. It does not mean he cannot feel the pain his "cousins" feel. He feels it as much as anyone else or perhaps even more. And his writings will not bring about any wars! They are wake-up calls.

War. What is it good for? Absolutely nothing.

//www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKOArwYfqj8&feature...

Re the point

Simorgh, as a matter of fact what seems to be the point (or lackthereof) in the above post, which you find plausible, is what I find absurd! Inded, one can not help but wonder how is this "playing field" supposed to be "leveled" by merely killing a few thousand Basijis? Not to mention how are these foreigners going to kill these few thousands of Basijis without actually engaging in a war with IRI?!

These all sound like funny, yet desperate fantasies of those without the vaguest idea about the dynamics of present day Iran! Take it from someone with close contact with the new generation of Iranians (with about two dozen nephews, nieces and cousins between the ages of 17 and 28) that present Iranians are a unique population and in every way different in terms of time (in comparison to previous generations) and place (compared to other nations in the region)! This generation, while fed up with IRI (due to fundamental cultural differences) and having ambitions to see it replaced with a democratic system, are not willing to sacrifice their lives for it! This indeed is a sign of maturity and growth -- that does not exist in other countries (e.g. Egypt, Libya, Syria...) and did not in the past generations of Iranians -- which has to do with mentally getting over the stage of "martyrdom!" Martyrdom for these guys does not have any meaniang of value (due to desnsitization by being over-exposed to Ashura and Basiji culture), whether it is to come to defense of IRI, for god, or even to topple IRI or for the "love of America!" 

Hence, these guys are more pragmatic than their counterparts elsewhere or their previous generations, for they've experienced (for better or worse) the futility of the notion of "martyrdom" either first hand or by association! That is why in 2009 they retreated in the face of IRI's death machine, and are poised to take back to the streets in peaceful, multi-million person demonstrations, that world has yet to see, once they see the time ripe! Judging by the widening rift among the rank and file of IRI under the pressure of sanctions among others, that day does not seem far away! 

Siamack:

Thank you for another wonderfully delightful piece.  :-)

Make it simple, make it wrong

This simple black and white analysis of Iranian people is a clear example of how wrong assumptions can lead to wrong conclusions. I wish it was this simple and we could eliminate all the bad guys but unfortunately the real world is not that simple. The author assumes that all Pasdars and Basijis are the evil supporters of the regime. I have however heard too many times from different analysts that there are many unhappy people inside the Sepah. To assume that all Basijis come from families who are different to the rest of the Iran is wrong too. Look at Syria to see how armies can crack when they face their own people. Iran's last revolution was another example.

They say a minimum of 10% of Iranians support the regime. Are you going to kill them all? We get nowhere with violence. It leaves open wounds in another section of the society and sooner or later an enemy of Iran such as Russia or China will take advantage of that. We need to be patient and we need to be consistent with the demands for Human rights and democracy. This is regime in crisis and we have to do everything that we can to weaken it further and make it isolated. War is not the solution and will just serve to destroy the country.

Childish hopes

Your oversimplified arguments remind me of the "surgical strikes" that were supposed to undo the regime in Iraq.  It will not be like that.  The west has no love for Iran or Iranians.  Their goal is to secure Israel and oil.  They will destroy the decades fought for infrastructure of Iran before even targeting the IRG or the Baseej for the simple reason that Iran should have no retaliatory power left.  According to the US sources there are between 10,000 and 20,000 targets that must be "surgically" destroyed before they can even get to the nuclear sites.  That means anti-aircraft installations, missile depots, power stations, bridges, communication hubs.....The radiation fall out will kill tens of thousands of people.  Iran will be caught in a bloody multi-dimensional separatist movement.  The disputed islands with the UAE will be lost.  The regime will have tens of thousands ready to fight any invading army and for that reason there will be no troops deployed.  End result will be an IRI that is ever more in control, civil war, and widespread destruction.  And have no doubt Iran will target the Persian gulf oil fields and in the act end up losing our refineries and oil wells as well.  They will also target the Israeli nuclear facilities and god only help us so that Israel doesn't retaliate with nuclear weapons against Iran.  Not as simple as you think is it?  You watch too many movies.  Is Iran's complete destruction worth that risk?  You people proposing a war to topple the regime are either naive, callous or ignorant.

Simorgh

You have little faith in the Iranian people. Cast your mind back to the
people power in 2009. Despite the overwhelming odds against the people
they didn't too badly to shake the terrorists in power.

     I have every
faith in the Iranian people. Maybe you forgot, but in 2009 the people
where doing very well. That was until Mousavi cancelled a protest and
the movement lost all of its momentum. That cancellation is one of the
biggest mistakes I can think of. You never know where Iran would be now
if he had said just go out and protest. And this was without any foreign
assistance.

            All you need is one or two strategic strikes
against Basij and Sepah outposts. Then gradually increase the number
until the moral is destroyed and the rank and file will desert.  

   What
exactly are you basing this information off? 1 or 2 strategic strikes?
Is this a joke? According to Simorgh, America and its western allies
could destroy the Islamic republic in 15 minutes. So let me ask you  a
question then. If it was just 1 or 2 strategic strikes, then why the
hell have they not fucking done it yet? Iran gets closer to a Nuke each
day,what are they waiting for? After all it is apparently 1 or 2
strategics strikes.         

  The rest will be in the hands of the
people. Also do not under-estimate the effectiveness of target
assassinations. If, as you say, troops are needed on the ground- it
should be by an Iranian liberation army properly trained and equipped
with support from the Americans.     

There has to be a armed movement
already in place for America to provide weapons to. And there isn't one.
The only thing that is even close is MKO and Kurdish separatist
groups.     

    I hope it will not come to British and American ground
forces to occupy Iran but if push comes to shove I prefer being
controlled by Attila the Hun than Islamo Fascists.   

  Don't hope. It
won't come to that because a land invasion of Iran will be ten times the
nightmare Afghanistan and Iraq where. An invasion of Iran is just not
realistic. The west is not going to lose tons of troops so Iran can have
democracy. They don't care, sorry about that.

Arj

The point which the author is making is that Iranians are ready for regime change. However, normal people holding placards and shouting "death to the dictator" is no match to armour clad baton weilding Basij thugs. The purpose of the strike would be to elmininate or neuralise the strengh of the IR terror thugs to a level playing field. If and when the Basij are targeted and killed the Iranian people will take control and round up those who are remaining and put them on trial or kill them.