Current Events

HG, for reference, normal questions, which I share are:

To what extent do economic/financial santions hurt different spectrum of society (some, if any to be of significance)  and to what extent, to what effect, what is the desired effect, and to what extent is the effect feasably accomplished?

As I said before : watch the reports, especially IMF and the markets, monopolies, from now on , very closely.

P.S. Amir1973, of course they don't go to Cannes immediately visibly (although they do). They are in all the tax-havens, a few miles down the road hobnobbing with the other successive kleptomaniacs

"Targeted" sanctions are meaningless

They have already been in place for years. How does a travel ban to Europe or North America on the head of the Basij or some IRGC goons have any meaningful impact? As if those folks are vacationing in Boca Raton and Cannes?! Forget about an "oil strike", a la 1978. The regime will never allow it to happen in a million years, and it has the means to prevent it. As long as oil rich regimes have a steady flow of cash, they are essentially untouchable (it's worth noting that the only Persian Gulf state that has seen any significant protests has been Bahrain, i.e the only state without significant oil exports; Kuwait, UAE, Qatar, etc have NOT seen large demonstrations). The regime has enough cash to buy the loyalty of its thugs and enough cash to keep the economy from completely tanking. The only examples may be Libya and Syria -- where outside forces have provided assistance and where economic sanctions have been imposed. 

1991-2003: chocking sanctions/noflyzone/bombings in Iraq

It was not too long ago when we saw chocking sanctions, selected bombings in addition to a no-fly-zone in Iraq during 1991-2003.  And, who can forget the oil for food program?  During those terrible times, the infant mortality doubled and tripled in selected areas ("Child death rate doubles in Iraq". BBC. May 25, 2000).......amongst other human tragedies.  "In the spring of 2000 a U.S.A. Congressional letter demanded the lifting of the Iraqi sanctions garnered 71 signatures, while House Democratic Whip David Bonior called the economic sanctions against Iraq "infanticide masquerading as policy ("Global Policy Forum", weekly update at GPF Feb. 14 - 18 2000)."

Meanwhile, during 1991-2003, Saddam Hussein and his henchman were busy gathering wealth even thru oil for food program, building the most glamorous palaces while having a chock-hold on the Iraqi people.  It took the American booths on the ground in 2003 to flush the Ba'thist regime into the archives of the history and another 8 years of occupation to semi-stabilize the country.

They say that those who forget history tend to repeat the same mistakes.  I do not mind sanctions that put a chockhold on the IRI-heads, IRGC, Basij or their hidden companies.  I have even called on strikes by the Iranian oil workers (Practical path towards democracy).  But, knowing a bid about the Iraqi history, knowing the barter system with China/India/Russia and the lack of cooperation on sanctions by the majority of Iran's neigbors, someone please tell me how these sanctions will bring democracy to Iran, and I hope you do not defer to Mirfetroos's recent article.  So, overall, I have to agree with Mehrdad that these sanctions will probably have no effect on the IRI-heads and their henchmen.

Oh, and if you think that the US will involve soldiers in another nation-building project costing $trillions and thousands of soldiers' lives in this economy, well, you can wait a while. 

And, Israel?  Sure, hit a few buildings to make you feel better?  Fine!  

How about MEK?  Surrrrrre.  I like to see 60+ year old commandos huffing and puffing too.

It will take the people of Iran to flush IRI into the sewer of the history.  Let's support sanctions that chock-hold the officials and their cronies and not the Iranian people, and empower them to export these mullahs to Najaf.  How about us telling the US officials what sanctions will work and what not?

Regime lobbies (NIAC, CASMII, etc) have been singing this tune

for a long time: don't sanction the IRI, because it just hurts the little folks in Iran. If you do business with the IRI, on the other hand, the money will somehow trickle down to those little people. I'm sure "trickle down" economics will work very well in the IRI, if we just give it a chance. Sure.

money laundering costs money

money laundering costs money (transaction cost) dear heart (refer to my first comment).  i'm also very familiar with the monopolies in the iri economy (economic inefficiency).  i hope you're not referring to hosseini's report to imf describing how awful u.s. and european economies are and how well iri is doing or any report lauding iri's bank system before the shit storm hit the fan.  at any rate, i won't try to read between the lines and let you do the analysis in full comprehensible paragraphs detailing how a less profitable environment doesn't hurt the establishment in iran.

HG, watch the price of e.g. gold and

IMF reports and announcements carefully.

Oh and before that, familiarlize yourself with monopolies and moneylaundering.

Then, try to find out what the latest 'gesture' is actually about.

what about the next

what about the next generation of fat cat wannabes?  it's simple economics folks.  less revenue/profit, more pressure and in-fighting.

choghok, I'd add that

the fat cats have had their loot stashed away a long time ago anyway.

No problems for IRI for sure

But for normal Iranians it is different. IRI can still through illegal business with Chinese and Turks and by paying much higher prices get what they need, but normal Iranians can not do deals with rest of the world thanks to the embargo.

As said before, Saddam still could buy his Viagra and  silicon boobs for his girl friends while iraqi children were dying beause of the embargo put on Iraq, did it help the Iraqis for their freedom?

Meymoon-Parast & IRI Can lie all day, the real story is

فشار کمرشکن تحریم‌ها بر اقتصاد رو به انهدام ایران

//www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,15533072,00.h...

All is well then!

Regime is happy, the west is happy, everyone is happy.

Can someone please let NIAC know too?

Of course it has an effect

Iranian airline passenger planes haven't been able to refuel at normal airports and now I want to know how they are supposed to pay for the fuel in Ramsgate.

This is getting juicy.

Hamsade - exactly!

Hamsade - exactly!

that's actually called

that's actually called "taghieh." the transaction cost to do business with iri is getting higher --> the pie is getting smaller --> there's more in-fighting between the akhoonds and sepah.  we see more and more of it everyday. 

the apologists would like to make it like a hostage situation, if you don't let the akhoonds and sepah loot more and fatten their accounts, the ordinary iranians will be "hurt."

more accurately would have said.....

No effect on IRI officials.

  People on the other hand, is a different story which incidentally IRI does not give a damn about the people.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad