Current Events

hirre, 1)

the nuke facilities are mostly in heavily populated areas....

In addition to what has been said here

Good news is that Israel is too tiny to be able to attack Iran. West is no match for Iran and US is the only military option for attacking Iran.

Currently there is a drive to scare Iran but from the look of it, similar to fake Saudi Ambassador murder plot, no one is taking it seriously. War doesn't make sense for the US and West can't do it either, no resources. Israel is a joke, so no need to explain that scenario.

Keep in mind that "a dog that barks doesn't bite". No need to put Iran on alert if you truly want to damage Iranian sites. Rule of thumb, when Israeli government talks, just smile and say sure.

The reality is that these events are going to be a possible future plot for a war with Iran, if things go south. That would be a direct US involvement and Israel will stay out of it, since it can vanish in a case of a real war. However, Iran will use the excuse of any war to damage Israel once and for all. As mentioned here, the final scenario will only benefit certain European countries for the short run and China in the long run.

From the look of it, the fight to strategically gain access to resources continues between Europe and rising Asia...Libya for now is back to West, but nothing is guaranteed and no party sits quietly...Iran can play its cards right and secure its position by recognizing the need for an ally from rising powers...Many things can change in year. Stay tuned.

Realistic war scenario

I think the most realistic war scenario is that Israel might go after the nuclear facilities. After Israel has destroyed the facilities Iran will have two choices:
1) Don't do anything
2) Attack Israel

If Iran chooses 1, then the IR will survive longer. However, if Iran chooses 2 then Israel & USA/Nato will go into the conflict and destroy the iranian military and engage in a full scale war.

The trick from the west is how to lure Iran into a direct military confrontation. The last resort is to bomb the nuclear facilities, but if Israel does it and Iran chooses 2, then the IR will be destroyed. Israel/USA won't stop until complete regime change, that is if 2 is chosen. The question is in the case of 2, how much public support will Iran have and what will Russia & China do (they have invested a lot in Iran and will not see their assets destroyed by the west)?

The objective of any

The objective of any military action should be total regime change, The IR is not a nuclear threat to Israel (yet) and a properly trained liberation army  should be establsihed.  what happened in Libya teaches us not to give power to a group of vigilantes and thugs. Also the last thing we want is a nuclear confrontation which could have devestating conseuqences on civilians.

The first prioerity must be the protection of archaeological and heritage sites. The liberation army must secure these places immediately and stop looting. Persepolis must be proteccted with human blood and no matter how many human casualties. 

The wer plan has been set in motion and every effort must be made to bring the IR to its collapse its leaders either captured or killed.

Death to the Islamic Republic. Condemn it. Fight it. Destroy it.  

F' Israel.

Isreal is too little to mess with Iran.It ll be their bigist mistake.

War Is Hot Air, Right now.

Not only will the 6 month deadline for Iran being able to make Nukes pass, we'll see this moving goal post for sure yet again as per usual in the next 2 years. At that point, we'll have to see where the EU/USA are at economically and how far they have come regarding repairing the Shadow Banking Sytem, anemic growth.

They won't bomb Iran with the Monetary/Banking/Economic problems the USA has which is America's existential threat right now.  Since 2001 the USA has invested so little in the USA that the total numer of new jobs created over the period to replace lost ones is ZERO, so far USA has had a LOST DECADE and bombing Iran would give it another lost decade, with even more serious unintended consequences. Now 1.1 million college graduates per year are entering the market with no experience and no prospect for work & this will take until 2014 to resolve just for the college graduates which is an acute social stress.

If Europe was in a better position, then you could say the USA for Israel would be prepared to inflict harm on itself for the short term, but the USA at this point won't get EU/Nato Approval or desire to bomb Iran.  After the Presidential election, a US attack on Iran is going to be even tougher as the debt by then, for the first time will be greater than the US GDP and the deficit based on anemic growth isn't going down enough. Europe is likely going to go into a recession again due to bad loans.  Timing says Mullahs have a few years ahead of them with little likely hood of attack.  Eventually it will be the USA which will be forced to change on Iran and follow the russian or turkey/brazil plan or else bombing Iran will be the only outcome.

The cost of bombing Iran will be too high though even once the USA gets around to bombing Iran considering the USA would be bombing a government with more than a decade of compliance & good standing with the IAEA and NPT. By Nullfying the NPT for the entire world and having little to no chance to coerce the world into creating a new nuclear order, nuclear proliferation would be out of control and US credibility and resources not in a position to fix the bigger problem, this is close to as bad as Iran getting nukes, especially during a time of stress where competition among powers due to their individual economic problems is high and cooperation low.

Why all of this is just Hot Air, according to Prof. Juan Cole,

//www.juancole.com/2011/11/would-obama-greenl...

Former Israeli intelligence chief Meir Dagan
revealed last spring that he and other security officials had
forestalled a Netanyahu-Barak crazy scheme to hit Iran, about a year
ago. Dagan said that an attack on Iran was “the stupidest thing I have
ever heard.” He was worried that all the adults in the room had
retired at once on the security side, leaving the inmates in charge of
the asylum so to speak.

If what Dagan said is accurate, then it is entirely plausible that
Netanyahu and Barak are up to their old tricks again. On the other
hand, it is not clear that they could get their present security
establishment to go along. Maariv reported in Hebrew on Nov. 3,
according to the USG Open Source Center, that Barak has abysmal
relations with his generals, including the chief of staff, Lt. Gen.
Benny Gantz. The crisis of confidence extends, Maariv says, to Mossad
or Israeli intelligence.

If this report is true, it may well be that Dagan’s successors will
be impossible to convince on the wisdom of an Iran strike, just as he
and his then peers were.

.......................

So my own analysis suggests that there will be no American green light for Israeli adventurism regarding Iran.

I agree with MG, RG, and JJ

Military attack on Iran will not overthrow the VF regime, rather it will strengthen it and allow it to be around much longer.

Mammad

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Isreal Goh Khord!!

They do not plan to and will not attack Iran.   This is just propaganda...........especially from Obama's side who is on his usual delay tactics when it comes to IR. - as you can see, he just suggested waiting to see what is on the upcoming UN report on IR facilities.......

As for as any attack on Iran will mobilize the population behind IR - are you guys kidding me!!!?   are you that naiive...or.....?   People of Iran are waiting for anything to mobilize against IR - not even resurgance of Yazid will make any decent Iranian to align with IR. 

Look Down Under!

Why is it that all of the sudden there are no more protests in 'Bahrain?' Why is it that US soldiers are being relocated from Iraq to Kuwait? Why is it that the NATO is not interferring with the so called 'Syrian Spring?' Asking a few more of these questions will bring us all back to focus on what is 'down under' around the Persian Gulf area. It is termed as black gold O-I-L! And that is all it matters.  Israel is no more the a 'pit bull' in the area barking/biting when that becomes necessary!

There will be no war. US will keep its military/naval bases in Bahrain, Kuwait & Saudi Arabia. IRI will stay. A similar regime in Iraq will 'exploit' the oil there. And 'Syrian Spring' will turn to a 'Syrian Autumn.' Oil will flow out from Persian Gulf to the West. And we all be debating about 'TO BE OR NOT BE' forever!

I disagree...

A full scale war will help the west to get out of recession.  Remember, one of the things that helped the west to get out of depression in the 1930s was World War II.   Sad but true.

The best senario!

This will be the results of a war at its best: 

(a) no university entrance examinations and gift-degrees for people who have been or touched something in a war, (b) funds and corruption to many new disable organizations (c) Popularity of IRI in Arab and muslim worlds (d) so many excuses for economical and civil rights limitations (e) shutting up people easier than ever. (f) houses with sound proof walls because no body is capable hearing the neighbor's cry....

"It's not about what we believe. It's more about how we behave and influence." Comments

MG - make it a unanimous opinion.

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Me too, agree with mash ghassem.

 Kudos Rafigh for this great comment, why dont you blog it? Let people debate this topic for once from a certainly anti regime, yet pro peace perspective.

"Personal business must yield to collective interest."

MG aziz: I agree wholeheartedly

Although I am not sure if IRI is as close and on the verge of its demise, but I agree nothing will bluster their existence better than a military confrontation by the Israelis/West.  I strongly believe that vast majority of Iranians, including those currently hating IRI will set aside their grievances and will focus on their country under attack.

 The sad part is that innocent people on both sides will only pay the heavy price with politicians gaining the most.

'Hambastegi' is the main key to victory 

Mehrdad

A full Scale War: IR's Only Path for Survival

As exaggerated as that might sound, other than a military attack, nothing else will keep IR in power.

Internally: Political splits at the top, daily worsening of the economy,  new energized mass response to regime's policy (refusal to pay utility bills on a mass  scale,agressive workers strikes, as opposed to defensive workers strikes,...)...

Externally: Continuation of "Arab Spring," not working in favour of IR.

Western powers are fully aware that any prolonged military confrontaion with Iran will have destabilizing  consequences ten times Iraq and Afghanistan. With the current economic crisis spreading ever deeper in western economies, any type of a military confontaion in the Persian Gulf and the consequent destabilization is what could turn this world 'recession,' into a full blow world depression.

After the war

The possibility of war with Iran has never been greater. Here's a few things to expect:

-- The Islamic regime, which was at its lowest point in popularity and legitimacy, will regain considerable support from the public shocked and angered by a foreign attack >>>
//iranian.com/main/blog/jahanshah-javid/a...

سنگ بزرگ، نشانه نزدن است

This is all about Israel's internal politics. Netanyahu has a very fragile coalition that can collapse anytime. So the tough talk keeps him popular and in the spot light.

This week UNESCO accepted Palestine as a member and other international bodies will follow in the coming months or years. The German government told the Israelis that if they accelerate their settlement activities in the West Bank, they will not be getting the three new nuclear submarines. The submarines are subsidized by the Germans as a repatriation of the Holoucaust by the East Germany. Finally, next week the Security Council will take up the Palestinian statehood issue which with the exception of the US the rest of the members will vote yes or abstain. None of this looks good for Netanyahu, so here comes the distraction.

One thing to always keep in mind is that Israel never telegraphs its military intensions or plans unless their enemy is completely defenseless.

Israelis Pirates Part II

They are back!

//news.yahoo.com/israeli-navy-surrounds-2-gaz...