Nuclear poison

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Jahanshah Javid
by Jahanshah Javid
02-Feb-2010
 

Ahmadinejad's announcement that Iran has accepted the U.N. offer to enrich some of its uranium will reduce considerable pressure building up against the regime, for the time being.

The United States, which has been trying hard to convince its allies, as well as Russia and China, to impose tough sanctions on Iran, will now have to rethink its strategy. Sanctioning companies selling gasoline to Iran, as demanded in a bill close to ratification in Congress, may also have to be put on hold.

Meanwhile the threat of military action by Israel may also subside, although given Tel Aviv's long-term fear of Iran's nuclear program, that could be wishful thinking.

By accepting the U.N. terms the Islamic Republic will now also be seen as cooperating with the international community rather than continuing to be seen as a belligerent rogue state.

Ahmadinejad can put on a smile and make a big speech on 22 Bahman bragging about how he has played the world powers and come out victorious.

But nothing is that easy or pretty when it comes to the Islamic Republic. Diplomacy for this regime has a very different purpose than what the rest of the world is used to. Nothing is clear or straightforward and promises can be (and most likely will) be modified or withdrawn in the days and weeks ahead.

The biggest problem is that the regime does not operate with common sense and pragmatism. Decisions are made not through consensus among the best minds in the country, but by a small circle of autocratic, defensive, xenophobic leaders headed by Khamenei, who is desperately trying to crush the biggest domestic threat to his reign and save the very existence of a widely hated theocracy.

And despite Ahmadinejad's cheerful announcement, many within the regime will not be smiling. He even mentioned that some officials do not trust the U.N. and doubt that Iran would be handed enriched uranium.

Confrontation, particularly with the west, is what this regime thrives on. A compromise is bound to anger the hardliners who have constantly opposed any deal. I can hear them asking, "Is this the great news you had promised on the anniversary of the glorious revolution? Compromise with our enemies?"

When Khomeini finally agreed to a ceasefire after eight years of a futile and devastating war with Iraq, he likened it to drinking poison. What he was alluding to was that for the entire course of the war he and the rest of the leadership had vowed that the Islamic Republic would never ever ever rest until Saddam Hossein was punished for invading Iran.

Suddenly the weight of reality had forced Khomeini to surrender. Suddenly all his daily uncompromising speeches, all those "War War Until Victory" slogans rang hollow. He had led hundreds of thousands of young men to their deaths, seen the destruction of much of the country's military and economic infrastructure, sent thousands of young men and women to the gallows for their opposition to the regime, and gotten little satisfaction in return. The tremendous sense of guilt and shame was the poison that killed him less than a year later.

Now the Islamic Republic has again swallowed poison in the face of enormous international pressure and domestic upheaval. Suddenly it is bowing to the U.N. after years of insisting that it would never ever ever compromise over its enrichment program.

Will this poison be as potent as the one that knocked out Khoemini? Time will tell. What's certain is that it will cause much anger and confusion within the regime and leave it vulnerable to attacks by the opposition who will point out to capitulation from the position of utter weakness.

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more from Jahanshah Javid
 
marhoum Kharmagas

Jaleh, ey naaghola!

by marhoum Kharmagas on

"PS. Is there anything that JJ azizam writes these days that Monda doesn't find absoluetly FANTASTIC and brilliant?"

Can't stop laughing ...... and I would like to join Monda joon and say that the emperor has very elegant cloths too!

 


HollyUSA

Sometimes PHD just means...

by HollyUSA on

'Passed Highschool w/ difficulty' as is the case with dear AN.


Jaleho

So Ari, you think

by Jaleho on

That people like Dr. Salehi who is representing IRI government in nuclear talks is a Green. or is not a good nuclear scientist? How about his brothers heading different science programs inside Iran?

Or, you think that people like Ahmadinejad who is an engineering Ph.D. who was the head of projects to rebuild homes after earth quake devastation, is a Green or his engineering background doesn't count since he believes in 12th imam?


vildemose

Monda: LOL...  

by vildemose on

Monda: LOL...

 


Monda

jaleho, Ari too

by Monda on

for that matter, both are Brilliant people.


Monda

Jaleho

by Monda on

No is the answer to your inquiry!


Anonymous Observer

VPK

by Anonymous Observer on

Have you noticed that the thing that most bothers Fati commando (Jale-ho) and other IRR supporters is when you try to yank them out of their fantasy about the IRR being a "technologically advanced" entity.  They just go nuts, and even though they all live in the "west", they all come out and parrot the memo that was given to them, calling everyone an "out of touch exile", as if they're not. :-)))  In a way, though it makes sense.  How can anyone defend a brutal, dark ages theocracy that rapes its own citizens and runs them over with trucks on the street?  Well, you can't.  So,, you instead try to put lipstick on a pig and dress it up.  You try to hide the atrocities and talk about some firecracker that they fired off in a desert (which probably fell off on the other side of the desert five minutes later).  

And if you are Jale-Ho or "hass", aka many other names, you will also do a run around the obvious question of if the IRR is so technologically advanced, why do its civilian aircraft fall out of the sky everyday, and why does it have to complain about the "west" not giving it spare parts for those aircraft?  A country this advanced should not only be able to build those parts, it should be able to build the planes by itself.  But then again, logic has not been these characters'  strong suit.  Profanity, however, is a different story.  They are very good at that.  Calling people names, etc.  

The bottom line is you have a better chance of being hit by the rocket that the IRR "sent into space" tonight when you walk out of your home than getting a straight answer to your questions! 


AMIR1973

Hass: Speaking of literacy and illiteracy

by AMIR1973 on

Dear IRI propagandist (I called you a propagandist, not an agent):

Go back and read that table. It reads: Adult literacy rate, Female as % of male (it's a relative rate and therefore can be greater than 100%)... How can things in Iran be "improving" when the current regime in power is the most violent (as measured by the number of Iranians it has executed since 1979) and repressive (as seen in its censorship and intrusion into people's personal lives) in Iran's recent history. Which other government has executed as many Iranians; hung them from cranes; lashed them with whips; stoned them to death; killed them and their relatives in Iran and abroad; raped them in prison to the same extent as the IRI? Of course, IRI and its groupies aren't "paralyzed with hate". On the contrary, they lash, kill, and rape with love. Oh well, stuff happens. No big deal. Right?

As far as all the garbage you vomit up about "exile" this and "exile" that. Where do you live? In Iran? Really? Isn't Iranian.com blocked there.

BTW, you don't know anything about me, dear supporter of rapists and killers. I have given what I can afford (about $500 dollars a year, every year since 2003) to my relatives to give to "mostahaqq". They've given this money to a guy so he could get radiotherapy for lung cancer; the family of a drug addict; and a poor family in Esfahan who live in a shack that doesn't even have a proper front door (my aunt told me that a frog had come into their house through the front entrance when she visited them to disburse the money). Maybe, it's not a lot of money (but I plan to increase it this year). I manage to do this without vomiting up pro-rapist propaganda on numerous websites (like I know you do).  

Do you know who hates the IRI more than the "exiles" (which, of course, doesn't include IRI groupies who live outside Iran like you and Jaleho): the people living in Iran, that's who. When I visited a few years ago, I heard so much negativity about life under this regime, that I had to tell people to stop talkng politics cause it was too depressing.  

 


vildemose

Hass: Where is Q??

by vildemose on

Hass: Where is Q??


hass

Conspiracy theories

by hass on

The Shahis love their conspiracy theories about how Khomeini was secretly funded by the British/Americans/Oil Companies/israelis to topple their beloved Shah. Look guys, you've spend three decades not coming to terms with the events of 1979. That just can't be healty, Oktaby joon. You have a blockage. I suggest some prunes.


hass

122% literacy?

by hass on

AMIR1973 no one said Iran is a behest on the planet, only that things in Iran ARE improving, perhaps not as fast as you or I would want. Surely, Iran and the US will one day catch up with Lesotho's extremely high literacy rate of 122% based on your link. But you know what? You lot sitting in exile for 30 years spitting bile at everyone else and accusign them of being "IRI agents" and "supporters of rapists" just because they're not paralyzed with hate as you are, have been no help to Iran or Iranians AT ALL.

In 31 years, you have done NOTHING to actually help anyone or anything in Iran except to complain and moan and spit bile. Now, you're trying to ride the "Green Movement" for your own sake too.

LOL!!!!


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Jaleho

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

 

I asked you months ago to mention what are the great achievements of IRR.  I am still waiting.

Maybe working to contaminate Iran's land with toxic waster  by "refining uranium"?

Or is it sending: a mouse; 2 turtles and 2 worms to orbit. Is that it? 

Go ahead scream Ogdehi since you are well familiar with that condition. As for me. I live in the US. I can go to the hobby shop and get a pretty decent rocket any time I want. We can even build orbital rockets and the recipe is on the web. The main issue is not the technology which is 60+ years old. It is getting the flight clearances so you don't hit something on the way.

As for nukes most of us here are working to BAN nuclear power not to promote it. We are not so stupid to want to turn our planet into a toxic dump site.


Ari Siletz

Jaleho

by Ari Siletz on

My personal opinion is that science education helps in building a spacecraft.  But that's just a hunch. Another hunch I have is that leaders who tell their people the world's saviour lives at the bottom of a well are unlikely to be the ones responsible for Iran's technical accomplishments. Their power depends on how successfully they keep their support base in ignorance.                The Greens are building a modern nation despite these leaders, not because of them.

AMIR1973

Taking on the rapist advocate and liar, hass

by AMIR1973 on

The  Human Development Index for ALL regions of the world, including most of the developing world, rose from 1980-2007 at a comparable rate to that of the Murdering regime (look at Figure 1 in the link below). As you are reading the shameful statistics below, please remember that Iran has the 3rd largest petroleum reserves and 2nd largest natural gas reserves in the world. Finally, please also bear in mind that propagandists for the raping, murdering, and torturing entity known as the IRI, like hass, are pathological liars:

Iran's 2007 ranking of Human Development Index (HDI) in 2007 was 88th in the world (behing Azerbaijan and Thailand); it was 95th in life expectancy (behind Samoa and El Salvador); 94th in adult literacy rate (behind Botswana and Syria); 59th in povert index (behind Sao Tome and Principe and Mongolia); 58th in Probability of not surviving to age 40 (behind Panama and Maldives); 52nd in People not using an improved water source (behind Tunisia and Grenada); 64th in Children underweight for age (behind Swaziland and El Salvador). 

With respect to Comparing Females as % males, it was 165th in Life expectancy at birth (behind Algeria and Iceland); 90th in Adult literacy rate (behind Peru and Saudi Arabia); and 106th in Combined primary, secondary and tertiary gross enrolment ratio (behind Maldives and Mauretania).

Here is the link:

//hdrstats.undp.org/en/countries/country_fact_sheets/cty_fs_IRN.html 


Now, everyone on Iranian.com has learnt a simple truth: when a Islamist rapist speaks, an Islamist rapist lies.


Jaleho

Ari, you mean

by Jaleho on

The Iranians who did all the great things that Iran has achieved under IRI, are neither the "gaavs" who were pushed in the buses for pro-government protest, nor the ones who were pushing the "gaavs" in those buses?

You seem to have a personal clever way of knowing who is the "gaav", who is the genius who builds things in Iran.

PS. Is there anything that JJ azizam writes these days that Monda doesn't find absoluetly FANTASTIC and brilliant?


hass

GDP per capita

by hass on

GDP per capita is not a measure of advancement. If it was, then Bermuda and Qatar are the leaders of the world. Take the Human Development Index. From 1975 through 1980 Iran's Human Development Index remained stagnant at 0.569. By 1990 it was up to 0.693, and in 2002 it was 0.732. Take literacy rates, child mortality rates, access to clean water and electricity and healthcare. All have significantly improved. All those things are also human rights.

 A bunch of OGHDEI exiles who sit comfortably on their rears complaining can't undo that.

Incidentally, Iran is a world leader in the development of alternative energy source, and is the sole producer of wind turbines in the Mideast. Ten percent of Iran's electricity is produced by hydro power, having built one of the world's largest hydropower dams at Karun II (build 2001) and Karun III (build 2007) And Iran's interest in the "60 year old toxic energy" of nuclear power is more than matched by several other countries in the world who are "going nuclear" too -- it is the nuclear renaissance and Iran is part of it.

 OGHDEI HA BADBAKHT! LOL!!!!! 


Ari Siletz

Jaleho

by Ari Siletz on

The Iranians who rebuilt the country after the war are highly represented in the Greens. Now they're working on our post-war political infrastructure. It's a tougher task, executions and all, but they will succeed just as they succeeded with the metro, parks, highways, space and nuclear technology.

Monda

Right On JJ!

by Monda on

I totally agree with your points. Nice link too.


Jahanshah Javid

Power without pride

by Jahanshah Javid on

To all those who are proud of Iran's technological advances, or power if you like, take a look at Mana Neyestani's latest cartoon:
//www.mardomak.org/cartoon/49353/

No missile, no satellite, no metro, no tall tower... can be a source of pride in a country where citizens are treated like sheep and denied basic rights.


AMIR1973

When I think of technologically advanced places, I think of IRI

by AMIR1973 on

After 31 years in power, Iran is a technological and economic powerhouse. That's why it's GDP per capita is lower than that of Botswana, Gabon, and Mauritius. Another 31 years of this, and Iran can aspire to be the Gabon of the Gulf. It's because of the very high standards of living provided to Iranians by the IRI that a large majority of the Iranians on this website are sitting at a computer in some Western country (and not in their native land, Iran).

Jaleho, what country do you live in: is it the advanced and progressive Democratic People's Islamic Republic of Iran? I've heard that the murderers who rule the country block Iranian.com, so you might need some anti-filter technology. But in fairness to IRI, it has given Iranians more than just economic wellbeing. Iranians can finally raise their heads everytime the regime executes people, hangs them from cranes, lashes them 80 times, censors them, and tortures them. That's patriotsim for you, IRI style.


Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Some people do; others dream

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on

  • Wreck the economy of the once great nation of Iran.
  • Lie to people about free electricity and water
  • Lie to people about going to Ghom and teaching then take over the government
  • Lie to people about not imposing hijab
  • Waste Iran's resources on 60+ year old toxic nuclear "energy" when the modern world is working on renewable like solar and wind.
  • Prolong a war that cost hundreds of thousands of Iranian lives.
  • Persecute people so much that 4 million of the most educated pack up and go.
  • Murder and rape innocent people because they are "unislamic"
  • Make belligerent noises to about every nation they can find!

Other people dream of WWIII so for their outdated "anti-imperialist" cause.

I do neither and am proud of it.


Anonymouse

Yada! Yada! Yada! Islamic Republic is the BEST in everything!

by Anonymouse on

Everything is sacred.


Jaleho

Some people DO, some DREAM

by Jaleho on

they could have done it better!

Instead of thanking those who DID IT FOR YOU with extreme hardship, sacrificing their lives to keep your country's integrity, the expats sat here and made fun of the heroes for wearing "plastic keys to heaven" and defending the country with their "Ya Hossein". It sounded "smelly and backward" to bache nanah westerners here!!

That doesn't prevent them from showing off by pictures of modern Tehran, the subway, the parks and highways, and the country's quick re-build after 10 years of a devastating war!

In a similar manner, when Iran becomes one of the few countries in the world who can use its indigenous nuclear technology which will be indispensable for any modern country in few decades, you guys who made fun of Ahmadinejad for making it possible FOR YOU, YOU will be showing off with Iran's progress in nuclear technology and space technology.

Not only you did NOTHING for advancement of Iran, you threw a stone on its advancement EVERY chance you got. BUT, at the end, YOUR TYPE will show off by Iran's advancements more than any, except instead of thanking those who did it, you'll claim that YOU could have done it better, safer, and faster, and with 1/3 the budget.

Doers are few, BSitters are dime a dozen.


Anonymouse

Jaleho just because you say so doesn't make it so.

by Anonymouse on

Yes I remember those days and followed all the resolutions one by one.  I saw a lot of huffing and puffing, like you're doing here, and in the end they signed something that could've been negotiated sooner instead of bunch of BS huffing and puffing.

Sounds romantic to get Faw and Majnoon islands with 9 billion barrels of oil and use it as negotiating tool.  It'd have been good if they actually got something out of it.  Again nothing other than going back to original borders.

Have a sit and sit your ass down all mean the same thing.  The Islamic Republic is of the opinion that it should always use the sit your ass down language and doesn't know any other way. 

So again as we saw with the war which Khomeini extended and got nothing for it in the end, we'll see what we're going to get for the nukes.  So far nothing.

You and the regime can't negotiate like a normal person would anywhere else in the world and blame others for it.  You want to be a bully and then can't act like a bully and call Israel and US a bully.  Bullies don't cry to their mamas. 

Everything is sacred.


Anahid Hojjati

Dear Jahanshah, thanks for your analysis about the latest game..

by Anahid Hojjati on

 

Dear Jahanshah, thanks for your analysis about the latest game played by IRI.  As you noted, "Nothing is clear or straightforward and promises can be (and most likely will) be modified or withdrawn in the days and weeks ahead."

Dear JJ. I also like the ending of your blog where you note:"Will this poison be as potent as the one that knocked out Khoemini? Time will tell. What's certain is that it will cause much anger and confusion within the regime and leave it vulnerable to attacks by the opposition who will point out to capitulation from the position of utter weakness."  In this ending, you focus on how this measure by IRI will be seen by opposition as IRI operating from position of utter weakness.  As we approach 22 Bahman, we should expect more surprises from IRI.

 


maziar 58

........

by maziar 58 on

mr.hass or ms. I'm no political analyzer or military expert;

If it wasn't@$^%!&*    by that kind of statement you are discrediting 100 of thousands of brave young Iranian who defended enemy and LOST their lives (my 21 yrs. old brother included) not counting 2 young nephews in the first month of khorramshahr bombardament.

khomeyni is kissing devil's ass in hell himself and giving FREE coupons to get in line behind him for FREE.     Maziar

P.S  the last res. was accepted but never signed by either sides . 


Jaleho

Anonymouse, reagrding Res 598, and 582, 588 of 1986

by Jaleho on

You don't see any difference between the 598 Res. that Iran finally accepted and the 13 other shamelessly unfair resolutions that the whole world was shocked about?!! Good that you were not Iran's negotiator! UN lost its reputation by its shamelss support of Saddam during Iran-Iraq war. Few reminders for you:

The first resolution 479 after Iraq attacked Iran, not only did not recognize Iraq as an aggressor, but asked for a cease fire when Iraq was 110 Km INSIDE IRAN. That is, Iran was to accept losing its land due to Iraqi aggression at the position that Iraq was inside Iran, contrary to the UN charter. Saddam's conditions for accepting the cease fire was: Iran to accept Iraq's absolute sovereignty over "Shat-ol-Arab", and return the islands Tunbs and Abu Musa to Arabs.

14 days after Iran captured Faw in 1986 however, UN for the first time required the return to international borders, because of UN principle of "inadmisibity of acquisition of land by force." That is Resolution 582 that YOU are referring to! The original version which referred to "original aggression" was even changed to " original acts", lest it endanger Iraq in any form or shape. The subsequent Resolution 588 of 1986, even the phrase "original acts" was deleted so that Iraq wouldn't even indirectly get into any trouble, instead Iran was accused of "extending the war" .

From Res. 540 of Oct. 1983 to Res. 582 of Feb. 1986 (27 months and the longest period of no resolutions), there was no resolutions concerning  ceasefire and return to international borders. Resolution 552 was because of complaint of 6 Arab countries AGAINST Iran, regarding freedom of navigation (complaining about Iran's boats danger to Saudis), and did not have requiremnet for ending the war.

The only resolution which indicated clearly that the international community is determined to end the war, that it was binding and as such invoked the  articles 39, and 41 of the UN charter was indeed Res 598, in which the first section "DEMANDS" a negotiated settlement.

It refers to Iraq's REPEATED use of chemical weapons agaisnt Iranians, (Iran's long time demand)

in section6. for the first time UN accepts Iran's request to have a fair party determine the responsibilty of who "initiated" the war, This is a legal requirement for any future war reparations. (which tells you how off a BS are the RUMORS that so and so Arab country was willing to give Iran , god know how many billions of dollars to end the war in 1982!!!) 598 was the only resolution in which the  5 permanent members consulted for months, and made sure that the non-permanent members are on board, and the resolution would be accepted and would have the legal teeth.

To force Iran to accept it, the west pumped up Saddam's military might to the degree that later he became troublesome for themselves and they had to remove him! That is, Iran which had held on to Faw and Majnoon islands with 7 billion barrels of oil for negotiations (or just keep like Iraq wanted to do in the beginning of war) was directlty attacked by US navy, the operation "praying mantis" by US basically destroyed Iran's navy, they destroyed Iran's oil platforms, Saddam was given free hand to use missiles and chemical weapons to use agaisnt civilian population in Iran (and Iraq!), and at the very end US even signaled Iran that it would directly enter the air war agaisnt Iran by shooting down the civilian Iran plane.

All these after so many years are common knowledge, you yourself provided a link to UN site, but you don't bother to read it, or the US archives link that I provided which by now has so many of the former secret douments of back then, indicating how US was determined to prevent Iran from winning the war, and finally entered the war directly and militarily, and used UN as its political arm to force Iran. But hey, you can continue to blame Khomeini and Iranians for the war instaed of Saddam and the west! 

PS to Haas: We didn't have to wait for Saddam to attack Kuwait to know that he was just buying time to get stronger to attack again while  waiting for the help that the west had promised him. Right after Iran accepted the US resolution, Saddam which has gotten the military and chemical equipment that he needed, started massive use of chemical weapons, and poured missile to all civilian centers inside Iran. 


vildemose

Oktaby and anonymous:

by vildemose on

Oktaby and anonymous: Thanks for debunking Jaleho and Hass.


Abarmard

Mr. Javid

by Abarmard on

I like to stay on one topic rather than throw all that I can and confuse the issue. If you read my post carefully, my response was for the specific remark that you had made.


oktaby

Khomeini, islamists & West needed the war. hence, the extension

by oktaby on

Saddam was enticed to attack, much like he was later with Kuwait. And Khomeini et al welcomed & leveraged it to consolidate power. Khomeini was in Iraq and hated by Shah & Saddam, but tolerated by Saddam because Shah was the formidable threat not khomeini. This also explains why Khomeini was trumpeted & funded by the west as the only qualified leader to the Iranian people. This set the stage as planned and fully in line with the official 'dual containment policy' of the U.S. & anti-Soviet Green belt strategy of U.S./West that brought and/or supported both Saddam & Khomeini to power. These are well documented facts you can research & cross reference, not subjective opinion & whole sale misinformation & insults dispersed by some. Bush Sr. went on to leave defeated Saddam in power after 1991, to Saddam's own amazement, for ongoing deterrence against Iran and possible future activity. What Bush's lesser son & neocons went on to do, is another story of missteps of American foreign policy.

OKtaby