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A sober analysis of Tehran's intentions suggests the IR has little to gain from acquirining the bomb.
Adopting a realistic assessment, his predecessor, Christoph Bertram, also asserts there is no danger emanating from the programme. Bertram, a former director of the International Institute for Security Studies (IISS) clarifies in a report written for the main EU thinktank that a "nuclear Iran" would not be in Tehran's strategic interest; on the contrary, a nuclear Iran would jeopardise the strenuously-gained political capital that it has earned since the end of the Iran-Iraq war.
Citing Israeli military strategists, Perthes writes (p61) that Iran must be understood as a "rational and 'logically' behaving actor". Therefore one could argue that if Obama rejects taking the military option off the table and Israel openly threatens Iran with an attack, such menaces could provoke a militarisation of Iran's programme for deterrence purposes. A considerable reduction of Iran's security dilemma – such as a WMD-free zone – is thus the best way to repel the alleged nuclear ambitions of Iran.