Ahmadinejad and the 'Sunrise Power' of Iran
asharq alawsat / Amir Taheri
24-Apr-2009 (4 comments)

With President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad throwing his hat into the ring, next June's presidential election in Iran begins in earnest. Some had hoped, and others feared, that Ahmadinejad would be "persuaded" to foreswear a second term. One scenario had the "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenehi inviting Ahmadinejad for a private audience to tell him to step aside to open the door for a "grand bargain" with the American "Great Satan." Another scenario had Ahmadinejad dropping out after receiving a message from military commanders that they no longer supported him. No such scenario looks likely

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Ostaad

Even Amir Taheri sees the light

by Ostaad on Fri Apr 24, 2009 05:44 PM PDT

"There is no doubt that Ahmadinejad remains popular among the regime's supporters who may account for 10 to 15 per cent of the population. Today, he is the authentic leader of the Khomeinist movement in a way that Mussavi, or Khatami, or any of the other half-way-house Khomeinists could never be."

"It remains to be seen whether Ahmadinejad and Mussavi will succeed in persuading those who are not part of the regime's support base to go to the poling stations."



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Ari Siletz

Good read.

by Ari Siletz on Sun Apr 26, 2009 12:27 PM PDT

Thank you for posting this insightful analysis.

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Ostaad

So, there are those who are not part of the regime's...

by Ostaad on Sun Apr 26, 2009 11:00 AM PDT

"support base"!!! I am glad someone shed light on the fact there are "independants", just like the US, in Iran whose vote will determine the outcome of the next Iranian elelection. Ironically Iran and the US both face the same electoral situation.

Those who just want to say no should notice this article makes compelling argument in favor of voting. 


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Jaleho

If you keep in mind Amir Taheri's

by Jaleho on Sun Apr 26, 2009 06:45 AM PDT

intentional lies, ommission of some truth and twisting some facts in support of his devious goals, and then read most of his observation about Iran and the Middle East in general...he remians one the most savvy Iranian analyst in existence.

For example, this particular article of him is the most accurate analysis of Iran's politics that I have seen, except for his typical twistings ;-)

For example while many others have been delusional about the result of the upcoming elections and the "pathetic defeat of Ahmadinejad" in the hand of Khatami, Taheri notices that Mousavi is clearly more in line with Ahmadinejad's policy. However, he intentionally omits the fact that the reason Khatami with all the hopes of the west and "moderates" put in him, was forced to withdraw his nomination because on the nuclear issue he was proven to compromise, and Ahmadinejad was proven not to compromise. Kahtami understood that Iranian people are adamant on their "right to nuclear energy;" had to give way to Mousavi who was not a proven failure like himself, and was more in line with Ahmadinejad on that issue, and Israeli issue about which Iranian population are in tune with Ahmadinejad.

So, Mr. Taheri calls the opposition party in Iran's case as "1 and a half" party, but for example when the Democrat Bill Clinton adopts some Republican winning starategies, they call it "more-to-the-right-Democrats." Or, when both Republican and Democratic Parties kiss Israeli ass to get votes from election-determining states like NY or California, they are not called for having identical Israeli-centric policy, but Iran's is called identical anti-Israeli policy from all parties.

Most important twist in Mr. Taheri's argument  and comparison with elections, say in the US, is of course the fact that he does not mention the voter turnout which is the most important indicator of a democracy. For example, except for the last US election, the voter turn out in the US has been so anemic that it made its election almost a joke of a democracy. Yet, Iran's voter turn out has been one of the healthiest among democracies, yet Ahmir Taheri pull a figure of " 10-15%" popular vote out of his hind side, exactly the way he pulled "Iranian's Jews dress codes." He doesn't care if his lies are countered by facts later, so far as he throws the mud and it sticks where he wants it to stick, it is fine for him!

And now that Khatami had to throw towel by going away in favor of Mousavi who has more chance in countering Ahmadinejad, Taheri has to come out and present himself as someone who can see the realities in Iran, yet calls it "one and a half" for lack of power to do more ;-)

I also found it interesting that Mr. Taheri did state the fatc that Obama in fact adopted Ahmadi Nejad's campaign slogan, he says: 

"Obama adopted Ahmadinejad's campaign slogan of 2005, "We Can!" in the form of "Yes, We Can!"

But, he forgot the other part of Ahmadinejad's  slogan which is not all that sweet to Mr. Taheri's mezagh:

"We can, and we WILL."


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