Clashes Erupt in Streets of Tehran
LA Times / Ramin Mostaghim and Borzou Dargahi
09-Jul-2009 (5 comments)

Clashes between determined young men and women chanting "Death to the dictator" and "God is great" and security forces wielding truncheons erupted in downtown Tehran today just minutes before 5 p.m. local time.

The screams of a woman being beaten could be heard from nearby buildings. Nearby business owners could be seen hustling running protesters into their buildings to shield them from anti-riot police and plainclothes enforcers.

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rosie is roxy is roshan

Hi again,

by rosie is roxy is roshan on Thu Jul 09, 2009 10:46 PM PDT

I'm thoroughly exhausted. I've been trying my best to cover today's protests as best as I possibly could and one thing led to another and now my brain is fried, and if you're willing, I'd really like to discuss this carefully.

So please come back tomorrow and I'll have a coherent reply for you. Iff I tried now, it would come out mush.


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alexarjomand

Possible outcomes

by alexarjomand on Thu Jul 09, 2009 07:31 AM PDT

The IRI has no future. The questions are what will happen to Iran post-IRI and when will that period commence.  Seyed Ali, Mojtaba and their criminal coterie will certainly do what they can to hold on to power but I cannot see them being able to change the current course of events.  Some possible outcomes are:

 

1.                  Seyed Ali relinquishes power as supreme leader and “retires” to Qom or elsewhere—possibly leaves the country to protect himself.  The IRI, with certain modifications to its constitution, survives in the short-term as they call for new elections and Mousavi and his gang take charge.

2.                  The situation spirals completely out of control, the regime collapses and a coalition of opposition forces, with no dominant partner, takes over with the support of the Revolutionary Guards (an interim government) and once order is restored calls for a referendum.

3.                  Seyed Ali & Mojtaba panic and raise the ante by going after Rafsanjani and his family (i.e. arrest him) and try to completely wipe out the opposition.  This will result in short-term consolidation but ultimately end up at the same place as the first two outcomes.


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rosie is roxy is roshan

So what do you foresee?

by rosie is roxy is roshan on Thu Jul 09, 2009 07:09 AM PDT

I have lots of thoughts, but you tell me..

what do you foresee?

I do not foresee a bright future int he long run for the IR, and definitely not for the hardliners, but within that, there are many possible scenarios.


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alexarjomand

Rosie

by alexarjomand on Thu Jul 09, 2009 06:56 AM PDT

I think the young people are so frustrated and fed up with the system that they cannot and will not let the momentum die.  Some of the interviews with the demonstrators suggest that they are prepared to accept any outcome. It is very sad that once again many will be hurt and possibly some killed but it is all a function of anger and hopelessness. It is also a function of having smelled blood (that of the IRI)...


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rosie is roxy is roshan

This is why I thought they should postpone any demos

by rosie is roxy is roshan on Thu Jul 09, 2009 06:37 AM PDT

and focus on the strike, which should've been a mass calling in as sick and then staying at HOME...

and other smaller actions perhaps...

while training in civil disobedience. Civil disobedience is not simple, especially when you're dealing with people like the Basij. It's not something you can teach by tweeting or youtube videos, no matter how hard you try.  They needed to have a large number of people actually physcially TRAINED in the FLESH and then designated specific sectors of the crowd, and enough to all the time be going around and briefing the protestors. And even then iit still would've been a risky business.

But in a case when you're dealing with something like this, part of the civil disobedience has to be to know when to withdraw...move...the other way...quickly...

Sot to have the demo now. on such short notice..regardless of the poetic justice of it being on this historical day...

it would've made just as strong a statement and probably even stronger to have everyone just STAAY HOME. Dead quiet on the streets of Tehran...no sound but the tail end of the wind from the sandstorms...


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