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Clearly, Khamenei and his supporters feel they have enough firepower to manage and eventually overcome the crisis, which, as Rafsanjani noted, is the most significant since the inception of the Islamic Republic.

But their calculations have been wrong before. They clearly failed to anticipate the reaction of other candidates — not to mention a significant part of the population — to the election results. They may once again be underestimating the extent and determination of the
forces arrayed against them, seemingly more united in opposition to Ahmadinejad’s presidency than a month ago, precisely because of the way they handled both the election and its aftermath.