NIAC and Gasoline Embargo
NY times / Trita PArsi & Hossain Askari
14-Aug-2009 (4 comments)

In an effort to squeeze Iran into submission over its nuclear policy, Congress and the White House are edging toward a gasoline embargo. This would do nothing to force Iran into submission. In fact, it would be a blessing for the hard-line government to once again be able to point to a foreign threat to justify domestic repression and consolidate its base at a time when opposition to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is increasing among conservatives.

An effective gasoline embargo can only be implemented through a naval blockade. This would require U.N. Security Council approval — a tortuous process with no certain outcome. An embargo without U.N. approval is an act of war according to international law, and Iran has declared that it would be met with force.

But even if the Security Council were to miraculously unite, success would still be out of reach. The economics of a gasoline embargo simply doesn’t make sense. Iran imports roughly 40 percent of its domestic gasoline consumption at world prices and then sells it along with domestically refined gasoline at a government-subsidized price of about 40 cents per gallon. As a result, domestic gasoline consumption is high. It is also smuggled and sold to neighboring countries.

Over the past 10 years, this policy has cost Iran in the range of 10 to 20 percent of its G.D.P. annually, depending on world prices and the government-mandated pump price. Yes, a whopping 10 to 20 percent of G.D.P. In need ... >>>

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vildemose

Ostaad: I think we should

by vildemose on Sat Aug 15, 2009 11:01 AM PDT

Ostaad: I think we should tone down our anti-AIPAC rhetoric to be more effective in our arguments. We don't need AIPAC bashing to prove that sanctions will not produce the desired outcome for the US and its allies.


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Ostaad

Sanction-be-sanction

by Ostaad on Fri Aug 14, 2009 10:50 PM PDT

Aside from the fact that unilateral sanctions are illegal and by themselves constitute an act of war, they will wreak havoc on the lives and livelihoods of the very people that Iran's enemies under the influene of the right wing Jewish Lobby are supposedly trying to help!

Further sanctions will effectively kill any chances of negotiated solution to the Iran-US problems.

All existing sanctions must be lifted now, in order to pave the path to non-military solution to Iran-US problems.

Israel and its supporters in the congress and administration will do their best to scuttle the prospects of Iran-US negotiations, but enough Americans have realized Israel and Israel-firsters do not have the US national interests at heart, and they will fight these sanctions will all their political might.


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Mola Nasredeen

Brilliant!

by Mola Nasredeen on Fri Aug 14, 2009 06:23 PM PDT

It states:

"Even assuming that a gasoline embargo would be effective, what would be its result? Consumption would decline by 40 percent and government revenues would go up, because no payment would be needed for gasoline imports."

"Iranians have suffered tremendous hardships under the Islamic Republic. And while the Iranian economy is in tatters today, Iranians have seen much worse times. During the Iran-Iraq War, they faced unprecedented economic hardships. This did not ignite a popular uprising."

You go Trita!


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vildemose

For the first time Trita

by vildemose on Fri Aug 14, 2009 06:05 PM PDT

For the first time Trita Parsi presents a well-reasoned argument rather than empty slogans.

Additionally, Why should Iran stop its homegrown enrichment program while it's being blackmailed precisely because it relies on foreign-produced  refined fuel?

 It just doesn't make sense.


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