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You are right

you're sitting in Iran and your phone rings.  On the other end of the phone, there is someone who you have never heard from and  who claims to be from a "foreign" agency conducting a "survey", and he/she wants to know your opinion about Ahmadinejad and the elections?  What would be the thought that would go through the mind of the avergae Joe in Iran?  I know that my first thorught would be that this is a government trap to see whose side I'm on and come after me.  So, I better give the right answer.

You are right about the possibility. Although we are not sure about the details of such poll conduct, I can see people could get nervous. But With all honesty the person on the other side of line could also choose to decline to respond or simply hangup. We do that often in the US and Iranians, including my own family, have been practicing this for doubtful calls for generations.

So, simply saying that people would almost automatically respons positive simple because of fear does not justify the poll before and after the elections!

benross: You're absolutely

benross: You're absolutely right but that is not how most Westerners with their short attention span for processing information are going to conclude.

They (Parry's target audience) will equate the Iranian people with Ahamdinejad. It's the perception that matters not reality. And people like Parry have an agenda to exploit that perception eventhough it's a false one.

What if

you're sitting in Iran and your phone rings.  On the other end of the phone, there is someone who you have never heard from and  who claims to be from a "foreign" agency conducting a "survey", and he/she wants to know your opinion about Ahmadinejad and the elections?  What would be the thought that would go through the mind of the avergae Joe in Iran?  I know that my first thorught would be that this is a government trap to see whose side I'm on and come after me.  So, I better give the right answer.

In other words, "public opinion surveys", especially when conducted over the phone by unknown and non-trsuted "foreign" agencies do not work in dictatorship.  They espcially don't work in dictatorships where the government accuses all opposition of being foreign spies and agents.

So, in order to accept the accuracy of this artcile, we will first have to jump over the hurdle of accepting that this so-called "survey" was accurate, which I don't think anyone in his / her right mind should accept.

The result: a cheap shot at the opposition by

If I remember correctly, the

If I remember correctly, the first slogan the day after announcing the result of the election was 'give my vote back'. And it was not addressed to Ahmadinejad. I think they were shouting 'Moosavi give my vote back'.

And the message was clear. It was saying we tried to play by your games, we voted in a way to ease up the repression a bit. It didn't work. Now we have enough. Give my vote back. The deviation, or should I say the improvised leadership, started right from the beginning, from the time that 'give my vote back' was changed to 'where is my vote?'. Meaning of-course that the 'reform within' had not failed, there was a validity in that course of action that I took with my vote, but it was only forcefully delayed.

People of-course shout for freedom. This is not the question. The question is where the leadership is taking them.

Hows about that?

How about if his points were valid?

Was all that street shoutings of "Marg Bar Dictator" the right approach or was it bullying? 

I don't know why we should

I don't know why we should hide the reality in order to justify fighting for freedom. It is not healthy. I don't know Robert Perry's intention. But admitting that more Iranians may have voted for Ahmadinejad doesn't turn them to messianic militant religious zealots like Ahmadinejad. People vote for the reasons, totally or mostly unrelated to the character and ideas of the candidate. This is as true about Ahmadinejad votes as it is for Moosavi votes. The dynamics of social movement for freedom has a different nature and should not use a political discourse based on unsubstantiated claims. It hurts the movement strategically, more than what it may gain in the short term and tactically.

Who is robert Parry? Why do

Who is robert Parry? Why do you think he would want the world to believe that Iranians are messianic militant religious zeaolots like Ahmadinejad??? Follow the money. This guy probably is a neocon in disguise who want Iran bombed to smitherines; hence, his demonization of all Iranians embodied in their so called reperesentative Ahmadinejad.

Yet another

good analysis on the latest poll! Thanks for the post. By the way, I have posted the following before on this polling in Iran almost two weeks ago:

 //iranian.com/main/news/2009/09/20/new-poll-finds-strong-domestic-support-iran-regime

//iranian.com/main/news/2009/09/20/most-iranians-favour-ties-us-distrust-barack-obama-poll

But thanks for the post!

Ahmadinejad won? I feel better already

Seems like Jaleho has been right all along.