Another Iranain Revolution? Not Likely
06-Jan-2010 (27 comments)

Antigovernment Iranian Web sites claim there were “tens of thousands” of Ashura protesters; others in Iran say there were 2,000 to 4,000. Whichever estimate is more accurate, one thing we do know is that much of Iranian society was upset by the protesters using a sacred day to make a political statement.

Vastly more Iranians took to the streets on Dec. 30, in demonstrations organized by the government to show support for the Islamic Republic (one Web site that opposed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s re-election in June estimated the crowds at one million people). Photographs and video clips lend considerable plausibility to this estimate — meaning this was possibly the largest crowd in the streets of Tehran since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s funeral in 1989. In its wake, even President Ahmadinejad’s principal challenger in last June’s presidential election, Mir Hossein Mousavi, felt compelled to acknowledge the “unacceptable radicalism” of some Ashura protesters.

The focus in the West on the antigovernment demonstrations has blinded many to an inconvenient but inescapable truth: the Iranians who used Ashura to make a political protest do not represent anything close to a majority.


Delusions of a new "Revolution" in Iran!

by Jaleho on

In Nilofar Parsi's blog: "So What is Next?" I mentioned why the present protest lacks the criteria of being a "revolution." This article poses exactly the same questions:

"Those who talk so confidently about an “opposition” in Iran as the vanguard for a new revolution should be made to answer three tough questions: First, what does this opposition want? Second, who leads it? Third, through what process will this opposition displace the government in Tehran? "



Mannya2001 - Realistic View

by NajafVisitor on

Thank you for an insightful post, Mannya2001. 

For too many people who have lived abroad and used accustomed to the free societies abroad, they automatically think that the Iranian society will be able to adjust ... 

You nailed it. There is an exile mentality, which is completely at odds with everyday Iran. Also, Iranian society itself is strongly divided on the basis of ethnicity and class, so that many people have a mentality where they are just unaware of others. In the case of political divisions, it is easy to listen only to those who give an agreeable picture.

I will cite an example: I got into a car fight with someone, I did curse him, next thing a crowd is all around us.  The other guy is pushing me, while I am telling him, "Don't touch me, you don't have the right"  The crowd felt that the other guy had the right to hit me since I used NAMOOS curses. 

Thank you for that anecdote. I am slightly surprised, since Iranians forever seem to be very fond of cursing themselves. However, the culture is subtle, with shifting boundaries. I am sure you will appreciate my ancedote - I was sitting in a shop in Iran, and got told off by two Iranian ladies, who were annoyed with me because they said I was showing my legs. Was not! Was sitting quite modestly on a high pile of carpets, in order to see my knees, one would have had to crawl along the floor and look up, and see a patch of knee between the top of my long socks and the end of my long bloomers.

Anyway, no excuses were accepted. This was a few years ago, but ever since then, when I hear people talk about the free-thinking, liberty-longing people of Iran ... I go yeah ... right ...

Khameini should be forced to step down.  Someone else with a looser and more of a supervisory role should take over or it could be a group.

If only Ayatollah Motazeri had been allowed in that position. He would have made it an honorary Head of State with reserve powers, genuine guidance rather than bossing and ruling people. I still hope someone like him will take over. But he was no politician, decent people usually are not.



Is it the oil, by vildemose

by vildemose on

Is it the oil,

by vildemose on

Is it the oil, stupid?


 I think Cryus Bina's analysis is sobering and quite accurate if the regime survives.



marhoum Kharmagas

inspector Vildee joon

by marhoum Kharmagas on

Inspector Vildee joon, I am curious if your inspections indicate that there is a revolution in Iran? Have you been to the scene doing some forensics?

Make sure you use ghaafelgiraaneh methodes of mofattesh Naaieb Teimour khaan:



Is Leverette Jewish?? Does

by vildemose on

Is Leverette Jewish?? Does anyone know??


jaleo thinks AN won, so does F. Leverett

by MM on

why are you arguing with Jaleo who thinks AhmadiNejad won fair and square along with his/her "world famous" author who also thinks that AhmadiNejad won with the majority of the votes counted in Iran?  Of course Flynt Leverett is going to continue with his lies so that he does not lose face in media. Check out the sites below. 


Future of Iran (interview with Flynt Leverett) January 3rd, 2010 | Author: Patriot

Check out the segment with Flynt Leverett from C-SPAN’s ‘Washington Journal’ this morning (we still don’t see him interviewed on CNN!):


The Future of Iran


Not defending the mullah regime, but Flynt Leverett (who is former CIA and worked in association with the National Security Council) convincingly conveyed (via the following article) that Ahmadinejad actually won the election (what would happen if protestors continued to demonstrate after they didn’t like the result of an American election as we saw what happened to Democracy Now’s Amy Goodman outside the Republican Convention in Minnesota which the American media hardly even covered):

(Iran’s) Ahmadinejad won. Get over it



Neocon's wish is An Supporter's wish!

by vildemose on

'I Am Convinced that the Regime Will Collapse'   [Mark Krikorian]

Obviously the collapse of the Iranian regime is much to be wished for. But something that ayatollah at Duke said was interesting:


....the very fact he had to make such a defensive claim is further evidence that the repressive and barbaric nature of the theocratic regime in Iran is, in the long term, the best thing to happen for us. Because, as I've written before, the only way for Islam to moderate itself and reconcile with modernity (and thus become a genuine "religion of peace") is for Muslims themselves to finally comprehend that their faith, as it has been almost universally practiced for centuries, is a dead end in the modern world. And the only way that can happen is for Islamic regimes to take power and show that Islam has, in fact, failed. So, terrible as it is, it's actually in our interest for the Iranian regime to hold on as long as possible, and crack down as brutally as it can, so as to radicalize (i.e., de-Islamize) as much of the population as possible.

Not for the Iranian people, certainly, but for the world at large, worse really is better.



You have NO SENSE of reality

by Jaleho on

or proportion cyclicforward! You seem to have been completely brainwashed by the and Shifteh jan's news feed to the degree that you have lost all common sense. Here's some rough numbers for you to contemplate on:

The number of people who got killed related  to pol pot's atrocities and consequences of it, is around 2 million,  a whole 20% of people of people of Cambodia!

As a counter example to your wild propaganda, you can concentrate on Tiananmen Square protest which resembles much closer to the Iranian student protest. Now, in that event which left China in power as you may know, the figures of people killed was told to be anywhere from 2600 killed 7000 wounded. And that, in a short time.

You think Iranian atrocities let's give it a figure of 100 death tops,( want more , make it 200) is closer to Pol Pot's regime or a very baby version of China?!


Middle East Left Forum a

by vildemose on

Middle East Left Forum

a political journal in defense of democracy and socialism

Articles on Iran: Issues, debates

Campaign: Hands off the People of Iran
No to imperialist war! No to the theocratic regime



The largest Trotskyist

by vildemose on

The largest Trotskyist group in Europe, the Nouveau Parti Anti-Capitaliste, is strongly in favour of the Iranian democrats.


The beginning of the End:

Dec 30th 2009
From The Economist print edition

A floundering regime may have weakened itself with its latest bloody crackdown. Let’s hope so



IRI will fall Jaleho

by cyclicforward on

Take that to the bank if you want. A regime that kills, maim and harasses people at such level that have not been seen since Pol Pot can not exist and shall not stay.


Velayateh Faghih must be demolish!Do we need revolution 4that?

by obama on

This is what a lot of educated people that I talked to couple of years ago told me. They said that they didn't need another revolution, since they have the constitution that is copied from the Belgion constition. They need to implement that and remove the Velayateh Faghih! We need evolution?

So, based on what I had heard I am not surprised about the writer's conclusion. Fighting the corruption doesn't need a revoltution. Then, we start a new 30 year cycle? I won't be around to see it!

There is corruption everwhere. Look at Korea, Mexico, US, Israel, China, Italy etc. they don't have a revoltution to fight corruption, they are actually helpless!! That's right how do you fight corruption?


Vildemose, you seem to believe

by Jaleho on

That the present situation in Iran IS a revolution, and it is even stronger without a leadership, and the events of Ashura also made it stronger and closer to a revolution.

These are very strange things that you WANT to believe, but with the frequency and type of reports that you and Shifteh Ansari seem to be concentrating on-day and night-...frankly it is very plausible to get into such funny self-deceptions, and completely ignore the content and logic of the type of news that you came here to read.

Now, based on the detailed writings of your last two comments, could you give us an estimate of when and how the next probable event could take place the same way that the article you're refering to makes you believe? Just one educated estimate, doesn't have to be correct prophesy.


Anahid Hojjati, JJ & Jahelo

by mannya2001 on

I don't like to take sides at all.

But,as I have stated previously, the Iranian society as a whole is not ready for total democracy and cannot implement it correctly if given a chance.

For too many people who have lived abroad and used accustomed to the free societies abroad, they automatically think that the Iranian society will be able to adjust to a free and democractic state.

No way.  I will cite an example: I got into a car fight with someone, I did curse him, next thing a crowd is all around us.  The other guy is pushing me, while I am telling him, "Don't touch me, you don't have the right"  The crowd felt that the other guy had the right to hit me since I used NAMOOS curses. 

Similarly, just as in Iraq we saw they weren;t ready for democracy.  Same with IRan.  Dont try to state we are differnet types of people and all that.  Try to see society for what it is.

Given all that, the way forward is neither 5 demands nor 10 demands.  Velayte Faqih should stay, Khameini should be forced to step down.  SOmeone else with a looser and more of a supervisory role should take over or it could be a group.

This is the way forward.  If the new Faqih is good, all other issues on the list will work out just perfectly.  Just look over to Sistani.

Anahid Hojjati

Dear JJ, please consider banning Jaleho from this site until she

by Anahid Hojjati on


Dear JJ, in the past couple days, Jaleho has been going around calling my blog tasteless garbage.  A blog that has more than 1000 read.  She claimed that she was upset since I had written in my blog that I did not want to waste mytime discussing wrongness of calling movement not revolution.  In July 24th of 2009, I wrote an article stating why I thought movement was a revolution not a civil rights movement.  On few comment threads, I have inserted a link to this article.  Someone like Jaleho who is so active on this must have seen this article of mine from July 2009:


Jaleho should check this link and quit complaining but no my guess is that she will find another point to complain about.  Now she is upset because my blog had sentences from Sahabi's letter.  Is this now a crime?  Will Jaleho be passing my name for this crime of including too many sentences from Sahabi's letter to IRI? 

Behavior exhibited by Jaleho on this site is kind of behavior that you have found offensove in past and have banned those writers at least for a while from this site.  Please consider doing this for jaleho too. 


  As the Islamic

by vildemose on


As the Islamic Republic prepares to celebrate its anniversary next month, similarities between the current turmoil and the one that led to a successful revolution 31 years ago continue to increase. Perhaps this is most evident in Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's seeming attempts to use lessons from the galvanizing moments of the Islamic Revolution to employ defensive tactics against the Green Movement.

The galvanizing moment for the Revolution referred to in several news reports occurred after Grand Ayatollah Shariatmadari called for all Iranians to observe arba 'een for those killed at the hands of the Shah's police forces during protests in Qom on January 7, 1978. Those protests were in response to slanderous allegations from the Shah that included implicating Ayatollah Khomeini as being both a drunkard and a servant to the British.

Observances took place across Iran and in Tabriz, the home of Shariatmadari, anti-government protests formed, drawing the deadly attention of police forces. The government's heavy handedness began a cycle that continued into the summer of arba 'een with the suppression of protesters by the Shah's police force.

In the past two weeks a similar trend appears to have taken place. Beginning with the tactical reactions to anti-government rallies that coincided with the mourning of Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, and culminating with massive crackdowns across Iran during demonstrations on Ashura, the Khamenei regime appears to have taken notice and acted accordingly.

The current crackdowns appear to be focused on what the Shah failed to foresee in 1978. After the protests in Qom during Grand Ayatollah Montazeri observance, the government reportedly banned all additional memorial services for Montazeri outside of Qom for the seventh day of mourning. This decision implies the government's understanding that Montazeri's popularity and message could spark a growing unified movement. It also mobilized security and forces and the Basij in advance of the day of Ashura.

This willingness to politicize one of the holiest days of the year with tactics that resemble martial law may have been more of a mistake than proactive maneuvering. Instead of deterring protests with its brute force, many believe the government may have inadvertently provoked a new fearless face within the opposition. The surprising retaliation of demonstrators to the security forces may have signaled a shift in the Green Movement.

The Islamic Revolution truly evolved from a rebellion in the late summer of 1978 when two important events occurred following the bloodshed of the first half of that year. As it became evident that Khomeini and his xenophobic message were unifying Iranians in a way political opposition leaders and the more moderate Ayatollahs could not, protests grew in size and intensity. The Shah reacted again with an extreme show of force, which became the first monumental event, the Black Friday massacre.

Khomeini's call for strikes as a sign of protest to the killings, and the crippling economic effects those strikes created, provoked the Shah to call for Khomeini's expulsion from Iraq. The expulsion to Paris from Najaf was the second and final event to solidify the Islamic Revolution.

From Paris, Khomeini now had a very loud megaphone with new access to Western media. The Shah, unlike Khamenei today, underestimated the power of the media for an opposition movement. The Khamenei regime's effort to limit communication has been well documented and reported over the past six months, but new tactics are surfacing, mainly activities tied to mosques with sympathetic views of the Green Movement.

The death of Seyed Ali Mousavi is a key example of the government's attempt to suppress mourning as a rallying point. Government officials took the body of the murdered nephew of opposition leader Hossein Mousavi immediately, as they claim for identification purposes, for what was widely seen as ploy to delay his funeral. It has been reported that tear gas was fired into a group of mourners who gathered at the hospital where his body was being held.

As drastic and incomprehensible a tactic this may be, it could indicate a defining tactic or miscalculation on the part of the Khamenei regime as Seyed Ali was buried in a small quiet ceremony according to the demands of government authorities.




Great response from anotehr thread!

by vildemose on

The leaderless Green Revolution is a strength

by Nur-i-Azal on

Not a weakness. Cults of personality around leaders leading Revolutions is a completely bogus Marxist-Leninist revolutionary strategy/fallacy, and it is one bot/taghut needing serious breaking if we are to get to genuine secular democracy. The French Revolution did not have a consistent central figure either, and neither did our own Constitutional Revolution. Granted those Revolutions ultimately failed in their initial goals, but note that those Revolutions failed precisely where cults of personality hijacked them. The French Revolution went down the drain with the Jacobins and Robespierre, and later Napoleon. The Iranian Constitutional Revolution could have succeeded had it not made some strategic blunders no thanks to various key figures whose judgement was beginning to attain superhuman status in the eyes of their followers.

We can do it without a single leader. And if we are trying to attain a secular democratic order, then we must at all costs resist the temptation to erect leaders to guide us because, guaranteed, that is another disaster in the making. The collective will of Iranians must be the leader here all the way to the first elections under the Republic of Iran, not any individual or even a core ideological cadre. It is for this reason that the Mousavis and Karoubis ultimately don't matter. The People's Will matters, and the People's Will can never be embodied in a single individual.



Louie Louis:On Haleh

by vildemose on

delete. Wrong thread/blog.


benross, thanks for the laugh

by Jaleho on

"It will lead a social movement that will go beyond the social base of 'green', thanks to Reza Pahlavi general appeal in urban and rural Iran, and his legitimate historic position."

OK, you did provide the proper passage for our laugh. Now make sure you don't continue day dreaming like you have been the past THIRTY years, or else you will continue to "imagine" your last laugh while we get our REAL ones.

The Phantom Of The Opera

Looks good on paper

by The Phantom Of The Opera on

"A secular democracy entrenched in a new constitution by a constituent
assembly. This assembly will be elected by the people after at least
one year of total freedom and security"

جمع اضداد محال است.

The Pahlavis, all mullahs, and all public figures associated with the Green Movement  must disclose the source and the amount of their wealth/income.


Just de-revolution

by benross on

Here is my take: 

First, what does this opposition want?

A secular democracy entrenched in a new constitution by a constituent assembly. This assembly will be elected by the people after at least one year of total freedom and security. 

Second, who leads it?

A single organization which will be formed to carry out this task. The 'symbol' of this organization will be Reza Pahlavi as the legitimate crown prince of the legitimate constitutional monarchy.

Third, through what process will this opposition displace the government in Tehran?

The organization will push for a free referendum in which people decide based on which historic document, IRI constitution or Constitutional monarchy the interime government will prepare the constituent assembly. This pressure will be primary by people who support the organization and also calling for international support to that aim. This political organization of-course will expand its influence to the power base of the regime so this process will be either peacefully or forcefully depending on how the situation evolves. So my take has little to do with undefined 'green' movement. It will lead a social movement that will go beyond the social base of 'green', thanks to Reza Pahlavi general appeal in urban and rural Iran, and his legitimate historic position.

My scenario of-course leaves 'so called intellectuals' out in the dry. But this also is nothing new in Iranian history.

Now you may start laughing because I intend to laugh last. 



I agree That this is different that 1979

by Abarmard on

But if the regime ignores the demands of those who are angry, no one knows where this will be headed.


Did a writer-wannabe moderator delete my comment?

by Jaleho on

Ms. Hojjati goes around and calls excellent Iran analysts like Everett a "potato Head," calls Sahabi who says the same thing as Everett "a joke not worth writing about" (while copying Sahabi's article and adding two worthless sentences of her own and calling it her own blog!!)...but, my answer to her garbage gets deleted ?!

Why, because I say that some people who for the lack of a real job call themselves  "writers," shouldn't be so concieted to trash valuable analysis of people without being able to provide a valid counter point of their own?


Flynt and Hillary Loverat

by divaneh on

That's a very good analysis. You are completely right. Please let me know how much you charge per word and I may have some juicy work lined up for you. These are jobs from top customers starting with Burma's Junta and Al Bashir of Sudan.

Veiled Prophet of Khorasan

Some people

by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on


are wishing hard to keep IRI around. Jaleho is one of them,. I challenged her/him? to mention one good thing that IRI has done. Of course there was no response ! Now that IRI is failing we get the angry screams of "it won't happen". Well it will! Now or later. 

Nothing including the most desperate attempts by the "antelectual ha" will save it. I know it is hard to see the dream of Islamic Utopia gone. But it was never going to work. Good bye :-)

Anahid Hojjati

Article by Flynt Leverett and his wife contains outright lies

by Anahid Hojjati on


Article by Flynt Leverett and his wife contains outright lies and wrong analysis.  Outright lie is where they claim that more people demonstrated pro IRI than against it recently.  The wrong analysis is explained well by other writers in this comment thread so I will not go over it. A little background on Flynt: 

Flynt Leverett, writer of this article is a senior fellow in New America foundation and chairman of the board of New America Foundation is Eric Schmidt who is also chairman of Google. 

A friend of mine noted in his e-mail about this article and Flynt: "Anyone doubting whether the massive turn-out of the crowds despite grave consequences mean a real resistance or the hired crowd for pro-government rally out-numbers the opposition is at best misled. The American politicians consistently misinterpret the Iranian society and its drivers."


Darius Kadivar

Flynt Who ? Oh Right Hamid Dabashi's Pal ... Jooneh Amash ;0)

by Darius Kadivar on

Oh Right that Clueless Expert who with the other clueless Hamid Dabashi Is trying to Highjack the Green Movement back on the Reformist Track:

Flynt Leverett & Hamid Dabashi: "Iranians do not want to overthrow the Islamic Republic: :




Flynt Should Tell Dabashi's that his PLO Passport is available at the nearest HAMAS Embassy !

Yeh Bar Gool Khordeem, Doh Bar Noon Bordeem !

Hee Hee