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TEHRAN, Iran—I've begun to wonder about all the so-called "Iran
experts" in the West. As Feb. 11, the 31st anniversary of the
Islamic republic's founding, approaches, many of the reports about the
imminent demise of the Iranian regime read like wishful thinking. On the
flip side, those who claim

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the theocracy will survive as is

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also seem off the mark. Here in Tehran, things are much murkier.

The stakes are higher
than ever, especially now that opportunists of every stripe are doing
their best to fill the gaps in the green movement. Many groups oppose
the current government, but few can agree on what a nontheocratic Iran
will look like. The lazy and, sadly, most common mantra is, "Anything
would be better than this." But looking at some of the
alternatives, I'm not so sure. If the millions of Iranians dissatisfied
with the current system are not careful, they might soon look back
nostalgically on the last 30 years in much the same way in which many
now regard the shah.

A number of figures from Iranian history are
currently vying for attention, all dreaming of taking power in a
post-Islamic republic era. Each offers vague promises of a freer, more
democratic I... >>>