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Here's a war game involving Iran, Israel and the U.S. that shows how
unintended consequences can spin out of control:

With diplomacy
failing and precious intelligence just received about two new secret
Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel launches a pre-emptive strike against
Tehran's nuclear complex. The strike is successful, wiping out six of
Iran's key sites and setting back its suspected quest for a bomb by
years.

But what happens next isn't pretty.

The U.S.
president and his National Security Council try to keep the crisis from
escalating. That sours U.S.-Israeli relations, already stressed by the
fact that Israel didn't inform Washington in advance of the strike. The
White House tries to open a channel for talks with Iran, but is
rejected.

Instead, Iran attacks Israel, both directly and through
its proxies in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. It misinterprets U.S. actions
as weakness and mines the Straits of Hormuz, the world's chief oil
artery. That sparks a clash and a massive U.S. military reinforcement in
the Persian Gulf.

This recent war game conducted at the Saban
Center for Middle East Policy, part of the Washington-based Brookings
Institution, a center-left think tank, appears to dampen hopes for a
simple solution to Iran's real-world nuclear challenge.

The lesson
is "once you start this, it's r... >>>