ماتيو برودسکی از کارشناسان مرکز سياسی يهوديان در شهر واشنگتن معتقد است که اختلاف نظر بين باراک اوباما و دولت اسرائيل بر سر برخورد با ايران سياست دو کشور را به دو مسير جداگانه خواهد برد. او در مقدمه مطلب خود در روزنامه اسرائیلی جروسالم پست، برنامه هسته ای ايران يکی از مسائل اصلی مورد بحث در سفر بنيامين نتانياهو، نخست وزیر اسرائیل، در اوايل ماه ژوئيه، به واشنگتن خواهد بود.
به نوشته برودسکی آقای نتانياهو از موضع باراک اوباما در اين زمينه نااميد خواهد شد. دليل آن تفاوت عميق در ديدگاههای دو طرف در مورد خطرات ناشی از برنامه هسته ای ايران و اختلاف ارزيابی های آنها در مورد پيامدهای يک اقدام نظامی پيشگيرانه عليه اهداف هسته ای ايران است.
به اعتقاد نويسنده مشکل اوليه اين است که کاخ سفيد تصور می کند اگر رئيس جمهور آمريکا از دوستی آن کشور با اسرائيل بکاهد می تواند از اين عامل برای رسيدن به يک توافق کلان با ايران بهره جويد. آ... >>>
Person | About | Day |
---|---|---|
نسرین ستوده: زندانی روز | Dec 04 | |
Saeed Malekpour: Prisoner of the day | Lawyer says death sentence suspended | Dec 03 |
Majid Tavakoli: Prisoner of the day | Iterview with mother | Dec 02 |
احسان نراقی: جامعه شناس و نویسنده ۱۳۰۵-۱۳۹۱ | Dec 02 | |
Nasrin Sotoudeh: Prisoner of the day | 46 days on hunger strike | Dec 01 |
Nasrin Sotoudeh: Graffiti | In Barcelona | Nov 30 |
گوهر عشقی: مادر ستار بهشتی | Nov 30 | |
Abdollah Momeni: Prisoner of the day | Activist denied leave and family visits for 1.5 years | Nov 30 |
محمد کلالی: یکی از حمله کنندگان به سفارت ایران در برلین | Nov 29 | |
Habibollah Golparipour: Prisoner of the day | Kurdish Activist on Death Row | Nov 28 |
Interesting
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Sat Jun 26, 2010 03:07 PM PDTBen, what is to disagree?
by Kaveh Parsa on Sat Jun 26, 2010 08:54 AM PDTindeed >> "The damnedest thing is done by ourselves".
I just said that the west will also do their duty too!!
If the foreign imperialist forces
by fooladi on Sat Jun 26, 2010 08:52 AM PDTHad kept their noses out of Iran in the first instance, we would not had started with pahlavi regime and ended up with the mafia of islamic regime. These islamic terrorists, from Khomeini and his islamic regime to Bin Laden and Al Qaeda are all creations of USA and Israel. Now let them deal with their little troublesome creatures the way they know best, this is of no concern of Iranian nation as a whole.
Having said that, Israel will attack the nuclear facilities of mullahs, if khamenei/ahmadi become technically capable, let alone dare to cross the nuclear red line. Israel would not seek US's permission on that. Israel's overriding and number 1 priority, from it's inseption has been and shall remain the preservation of Jewish state AT ANY COST......
And no, the Iranians would not rally behind the islamic regime in case of a foreign invasion. Anyone who says otherwise is either an agent of the islamic regime or one of thise liberal, wishy washy lefty political analyst with little or no knowledge of what the realities are in Iran at the moment...
I don't quite agree
by benross on Sat Jun 26, 2010 08:18 AM PDTIt needs Unity & leadership (nonexistent at the moment & the west will do their damnedest to ensure it stays that way)
I don't agree. The damnedest thing is done by ourselves. The west is just being realistic and go about its business.
all options are designed to keep IR
by Kaveh Parsa on Sat Jun 26, 2010 08:12 AM PDTSanctions:
Poison chalice v1: This is window dressing for the western public's consumption (note the inclusion of HR related components!), to give enough time for IR's internal debate and justify accommodation between the factions, leading to voluntary retreat of the reformers in order to preserve IR. This is west's preferred solution.
If this dose not work, then
Limited Military attack (not involving Israel):
this will either lead to
1- Poison chalice v2 >> Changing of the IR leadership (to Rafsanjani & the Reformers) again in order to preserve IR. This would be west's next best solution.
or
2- Strengthening the current IR faction in power (complete & transparent takeover by the sepah & "hojatieh" faction). this is a nightmare scenario that could in turn lead to implementation
The Bernard Lewis Project
Disintegration of Iran, by fomenting & arming ethnic groups. although unpredictable, it would be west's 3rd best solution.
**********************************************
As a result of the cumulative effects of the above, and at each stage the chances of a home grown revolution & overthrow of IR & replacement by a nationalist regime increases. but we are on our own with this and only have a small window of opportunity. It needs Unity & leadership (nonexistent at the moment & the west will do their damnedest to ensure it stays that way). This is the least palatable solution for the west, but one which due to its unpredictability and unmanageability (west public opinion), the west would have no choice but to accept (at least initially!)
as DK would say, my humble analysis
i agree
by humanbeing on Fri Jun 25, 2010 10:01 PM PDTbombing/attacking will strengthen iri, and suck the us into a war for which they have no stomach.
israel will NOT attack or bomb. it's all bravado. same with iri. they're 'flyting' (aggressive talk common before, and often instead of, battle -- many examples in the animal kingdom, and in epic poetry of many nations), and going on the brink.
problem is, the brink is at a different point in different cultures, and some codes of brinkmanship may be broken in the cultural gap, or some middle-management messianic psychopath may 'push the button' while generals and statesmen are busy ruffling their brinkmanship feathers and neglecting their watch.
that's why i think the window of opportunity for less nihilistic options is narrowing down and iranians need to unite and act by bypassing their leaders. easier said than done, we haven't managed in my neighbourhood either, but still you are more motivated and the stakes are higher at this moment.
Benross
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Fri Jun 25, 2010 05:57 PM PDThas got this right for most part. No Israeli attack because USA won't let them. Sanctions not enough by themselves. Yes the rest is our job.
It won't happen
by benross on Fri Jun 25, 2010 04:12 PM PDTIsrael won't attack. This is a front for more strategic differences Israel (the current government that is) has with U.S.A (again, the current government and in my view the reality of changing world). No matter how seriously Israel be unease in current context, it is not suicidal yet.
On the other hand, sanctions won't work by themselves. They will work for what they are initially designed for. But they won't work for us at all. We have to work within the opportunity provided to us as a byproduct of their initial intent.
Shifteh
by Veiled Prophet of Khorasan on Fri Jun 25, 2010 03:17 PM PDTI think the goal is to keep IRI
by Fatollah on Fri Jun 25, 2010 03:02 PM PDTby attacking that is!